Bluewashing illustration by from Pasja1000 from Pixabay

16x new research on Chinese cars, carbon market criticism, 9-Euro ticket pollution effects, biodiversity reporting, government bond climate costs, high ESG score greenwashing, ESG performance claim risks, ESG AI and Climate AI tools, circular economy strategies, investor GHG impact, brown stock risks, anti-climate lobbying benefits, and profitable employee ESG satisfaction (#shows the number of SSRN full paper downloads as of Oct. 24^th, 2024)

Social and ecological research

Low Chinese auto threat: Europe’s Shift to EVs Amid Intensifying Global Competition by Philippe Wingender, Jiaxiong Yao, Robert Zymek, Benjamin Carton, Diego Cerdeiro, and Anke Weber from the Intenrational Monetary Fund as of Oct. 16^th, 2024 (#24): “European countries have set ambitious goals to reduce their carbon emissions. These goals include a transition to electric vehicles (EVs)—a sector that China increasingly dominates globally… we analyze a scenario in which the share of Chinese cars in EU purchases rises by 15 percent over 5 years … We find that for the EU as a whole, the GDP cost of this shift is small in the short term, in the range of 0.2-0.3 percent of GDP, and close to zero over the long term. Adverse short-run effects are more significant for smaller economies heavily reliant on the car sector, mainly in Central Europe. Protectionist policies, such as tariffs on Chinese EVs, would raise the GDP cost of the EV transition. A further increase in Chinese FDI inflows that results in a significant share of Chinese EVs being produced in Central European economies, on the other hand, would offset losses in these economies by supporting their shift from supplying the internal combustion engine (ICE) production chain to that of EVs”.

Carbon pricing: The Effectiveness of Carbon Pricing: A Global Evaluation by Suphi Sen, Serhan Sadikoglu, Changjing Ji, and Edwin van der Werf as of Oct. 23^rd, 2024 (#21): “We show that adopting a carbon price reduces per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion by 8 to 12 percent on average. … we find gradual adjustments after implementation, resulting in a 19 to 23 percent decrease in per capita emissions after 10 years. … we also show that the estimated effects of carbon pricing policies stabilize after a decade following their enactment. … This result challenges the idea that carbon pricing may not be necessary in low-emitting countries, such as those in Africa. … Furthermore, we show that the effects of carbon pricing policies do not overlap with the potential effects of renewable energy policies to a large extent“ (p. 31/32).

Low GHG reduction? Do carbon markets undermine private climate initiatives? Pat Akey, Ian Appel, Aymeric Bellon, and Johannes Klausmann as of Sept. 25^th, 2024 (#185): “We examine firms’ behaviors in carbon secondary markets following the adoption of climate initiatives. … we confirm that such commitments are associated with lower future emissions, leading to a reduction in allowances surrendered. In response to needing fewer allowances, we observe an increase in net sales of allowances, driven primarily by a rise in sales rather than a reduction in purchases. However, we find no evidence that firms voluntarily retire allowances. … We find evidence that commitments are associated with an increase in ESG scores related to climate” (p. 23).

9-Euro pollution reduction: Public Transport Subsidization and Air Pollution: Evidence from the 9-Euro-Ticket in Germany by Eren Aydina and Kathleen Kürschner Rauck as of Nov. 20^th, 2023 (#141): “We study the short-term effects of the 9-Euro-Ticket, a major German public transport subsidization program, on particulate matter (PM). .. we find declines in PM10 and PM2.5 at core traffic stations, displaying differential effects of −0.44 µg/m3 and −0.41 µg/m3 relative to less frequented locations, which corresponds to approximately 2.8 % and 8.5 % of the current limit guidelines that the WHO suggests to mitigate adverse effects on human health. Pollution reductions materialize in regions with above-average public-transportation accessibility, are most pronounced during peak travel times on weekdays and in regions with above-average population density and larger car fleets, suggesting reductions in car usage sign responsible for our findings” (abstract).

ESG investment research (in: Bluewashing)

Biodiversity underreporting: Mind the Gap?! The Current State of Biodiversity Reporting by Gerrit von Zedlitz as of Oct. 2^nd, 2024 (#647): “… I therefore explore the biodiversity reporting of large European public firms between 2020 and 2022. … firms disclose twice as much content on climate as on biodiversity and focus more on the quantitative dimensions of reporting. But biodiversity reporting is evolving quickly. Firms reported 63% more in 2022 than they did two years ago. … current biodiversity reporting, also by early reporters, remains largely qualitative. Even in 2022, firms provided less than 20% of the recommended disclosures on targets and metrics“ (p. 31/32).

Sovereign bond climate costs: Does Climate Change Impact Sovereign Bond Yields? by Michael Barnett and Constantine Yannelis as of Oct. 1^st, 2024 (#49): “We started our analysis with the following question: Do sovereign bonds prices today incorporate future climate risk? Our theoretical analysis and empirical estimates show that in fact they do. … our empirical analysis shows that projections of future climate change damage have a statistically significant impact on sovereign bond yields. Moreover, we find that these implications are most significant for bonds with the longest maturity horizon. … countries projected to suffer more economic damage from the effects of climate change in the future see higher borrowing costs today. …” (p.38). My comment: With my responsible investment portfolios I invest in Development Bank Bonds instead of Government Bonds

Is good ESG bad? What you see is not what you get: ESG scores and greenwashing risk by Manuel C. Kathana, Sebastian Utz, Gregor Dorfleitner, Jens Eckberg, and Lea Chmel as of Oct. 12^th, 2024 (#39): “This paper shows that ESG scores capture a company’s greenwashing behavior. Greenwashing accusations are most prevalent among large companies with high ESG scores. We empirically employ a novel theoretical model that distinguishes between the communication of a company’s environmental efforts (apparent environmental performance) and its actual environmental impact (real environmental performance). The correlation of the apparent (real) environmental performance with ESG scores is significantly positive (negative). Therefore, ESG scores are unsuitable for measuring real performance. Thus, investors focusing on high ESG-rated companies may unknowingly increase their greenwashing risk exposure, and academics may use misleading information to assess greenwashing risk” (abstract). My comment: That big and high-ESG companies face higher greenwashing risks, seems to be obvious to me. ESG-ratings typically reflect ESG-risks. The authors measure real environmental performance “by Scope 1 intensity, Scope 2 intensity, Misleading communications, Supply-chain issues, Energy management, and Landscape impact” (p. 12).

ESG performance claim risks: Market vs Social norms: Evidence from ESG fund flows by Soohun Kim, S. Katie Moon, and Jiyeon Seo as of July 24^th, 2024 (#44): “Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) funds, designed to integrate non-financial considerations into investment strategies, can result in unintended consequences by additionally emphasizing their focus on financial performance. We employ innovative textual analysis methods on fund prospectuses to assess the degree of emphasis that funds place on ESG factors versus traditional financial returns. … ESG fund managers’ emphasis on traditional monetary metrics leads to an increase in fund flow’s sensitivity to monetary performance. Paradoxically, this heightened sensitivity to monetary performance may hinder the long-term objectives of ESG investments“ (abstract).

Bluewashing? Green or Blue? The Effect of Sustainability Committees on ESG Decoupling by Weite Qiu Qiu, Yang Jinghan, Maqsood Ahmad and Sunny Sun as of Oct. 15^th, 2024 (#10) “… we mainly investigate the effect of sustainability committees on the ESG decoupling. … Using a sample of 2,759 unique US listed firms over the 2002 to 2021 period, we find that the ESG decoupling is positively related to the sustainability committees. … decoupling measures find that sustainability committees improve firms’ environmental performance but increase the firms’ symbolic actions in social and governance aspects, indicating the potential bluewashing behavior“ (p. 27). My comment: Some sustainable fund evaluations use the existence and breadth of sustainability committees to judge the sustainability of mutual funds. There may be some bluewashinng of mutual funds, too.

ESG AI-Tool: Chatreport: Democratizing Sustainability Disclosure Analysis through LLM-based Tools by Jingwei Ni, Julia Bingler, Chiara Colesanti-Senni, Mathias Kraus, Glen Gostlow, Tobias Schimanski, Dominik Stammbach, Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi, Qian Wang, Nicolas Webersinke, Tobias Wekhof, Tingyu Yu, and Markus Leippold as of Nov.21^st, 2023 (#1732): “Empowering stakeholders with LLM-based automatic analysis tools can be a promising way to democratize sustainability report analysis. However, developing such tools is challenging due to (1) the hallucination of LLMs and (2) the inefficiency of bringing domain experts into the AI development loop. In this paper, we introduce CHATREPORT, a novel LLM-based system to automate the analysis of corporate sustainability reports, addressing existing challenges by (1) making the answers traceable to reduce the harm of hallucination and (2) actively involving domain experts in the development loop. We make our methodology, annotated datasets, and generated analyses of 1015 reports publicly available“ (abstract).

Climate-AI-Tool: ClimateBERT-NetZero: Detecting and Assessing Net Zero and Reduction Targets by Tobias Schimanski, Julia Bingler, Camilla Hyslop, Mathias Kraus, and Markus Leippold as of Nov. 20^th, 2023 (#453): “… this paper demonstrates the development and exemplary employment of ClimateBERT-NetZero, a model that automatically detects net zero and reduction targets in textual data. We show that the model can effectively classify texts and even outperforms larger, more energy-consuming architectures. We further demonstrate a more fine-grained analysis method by assessing the ambitions of the targets as well as demonstrating the large-scale analysis potentials by classifying earning call transcripts. By releasing the dataset and model, we deliver an important contribution to the intersection of climate change and NLP research” (p. 6/7).

SDG and impact investment research (in: Bluewashing)

Different circular loop effects: Mapping of circular economy strategies in the USA and their impact on financial performance by Josep Oriol Izquierdo-Montfort, Yves De Rongé, James Thewissen, Özgür Arslan-Ayaydin, and Sébastien Wilmet as of Oct. 12^th, 2024 (#26):  “This study offers the first comprehensive analysis of circular economy (CE) strategies adopted by U.S. firms and their implications for financial performance. By examining over 2,000 ESG reports from 2007 to 2020 … We observe a growing emphasis on the explicit use of the term CE, alongside a notable focus on specific strategies such as recycling, reducing, and reusing. We find that disclosing CE strategies generally decreases firm value. Specifically, long-loop strategies, where the materials’ use is extended but products lose their original purpose, tend to enhance firm value. In contrast, medium-loop strategies, which involve repairing and upgrading products, negatively impact firm value. Short-loop strategies, aimed at increasing the direct utilization of products and improving resource efficiency, have no significant effect on firm value“ (abstract).

Investor impact: Institutional investors and the fight against climate change by Thea Kolasa and Zacharias Sautner as of May 6^th, 2024 (#346): “We show that climate change has a significant impact on institutional  investors. Simutaneously, we demonstrate that institutional investors can have a significant positive impact on fighting climate change, particularly if they actively engage with portfolio firms to reduce carbon emissions. For risk management reasons, this is in their own interest, and it is also in the interests of society” (abstract). My comment: One of my engagement topics is GHG Scope 3 transparence so that all stakeholders can act on this information (see Shareholder engagement: 21 science based theses and an action plan)

Brown stock risks: International Climate News by Maria Jose Arteaga-Garavito, Ric Colacito, Mariano (Max) Massimiliano Croce, and Biao Yang as of Feb. 29^th, 2024 (#520): “We develop novel high-frequency indices that measure climate attention …. This is achieved by analyzing the text of over 23 million tweets published by leading national news papers on Twitter during the period from 2014 to 2022. Our findings reveal that a country experiencing more severe climate news shocks tends to see both an inflow of capital and an appreciation of its currency. In addition, brown stocks in highly exposed countries experience large and persistent negative returns after a global climate news shock” (abstract).

Lucrative anti-clima lobbying: Corporate Climate Lobbying by Markus Leippold, Zacharias Sautner, and Tingyu Yu as of March 22^nd, 2024 (#1179): “In this paper, we quantify corporate anti- and pro-climate lobbying expenses, identify the largest corporate lobbyists and their motives, establish how climate lobbying relates to business models, and document how climate lobbying is priced in financial markets. Firms spend, on average, $277k per year on anti-climate and $185k on pro-climate lobbying. Anti-climate lobbying is highly concentrated, with firms in Utilities and Petroleum & Natural Gas spending the largest total amounts. Pro-climate lobbying is more dispersed across sectors, but the Utility sector also ranks highest based on the aggregate amount of pro-climate lobbying. Recently, firms have tried to camouflage their lobbying activities by avoiding explicitly mentioning climate issues in lobbying reports. …More anti-climate spending is associated with more climate-related incidents. Firms with more anti-climate lobbying earn higher future returns, even after controlling for carbon emissions. The higher returns are not the effect of earnings surprises“ (p. 42). My comment: There seem to be too many buyers of anti-climate lobbying company shares who reward such behavior.

Profitable ESG-satisfaction: Putting the ‘S’ of ESG into Asset Pricing from a First-hand Perspective – Employee Satisfaction and Stock Returns: Evidence from Germany, Austria, and Switzerland by Nils Gimpl as of Aug. 12^th, 2024 (#99): “Utilizing a unique dataset comprising 183,944 employee reviews from the employer rating platform Kununu, the analysis reveals that firms with high levels of employee satisfaction exhibit significant outperformance in stock returns compared to those with low employee satisfaction levels. … dissecting the employer ratings, strong associations between stock return effects and employee perceptions of a firm’s environmental and social awareness, equality, treatment of older colleagues, work-life balance, and working atmosphere are identified …“ (abstract). My comment: With my shareholder engagement I propose to regularly evaluate and publish employee ESG-satisfaction. That seems to be right, see HR-ESG shareholder engagement: Opinion-Post #210

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Werbehinweis (in: Bluewashing)

Unterstützen Sie meinen Researchblog, indem Sie in den von mir beratenen globalen Small-Cap-Investmentfonds (siehe FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals R – DE000A2P37T6 – A2P37T) investieren und/oder ihn empfehlen. Der Fonds konzentriert sich auf die UN-Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung (aktuell durchschnittlich außerordentlich hohe 97% SDG-vereinbare Umsätze der Portfoliounternehmen) und verwendet separate E-, S- und G-Best-in-Universe-Mindestratings sowie Aktionärsengagement bei derzeit 29 von 30 Unternehmen (siehe auch My fund).

Zum Vergleich: Globale Gesundheits- bzw. Renewables- oder SDG-Fonds kommen nur auf wesentlich geringere SDG-Umsatzquoten und Engagement-Quoten.