Archiv der Kategorie: Institutionelle Kapitalanleger

Responsible Derivatives illustration shows manager juggler

Responsible derivatives? Researchpost #150

Responsible derivatives: 10x new research on migration, ESG labels, biodiversity measurement, effective shareholder voting, responsible investing mandates, green derivatives, structured products, stock market models, IPOs and alternative investments (# shows the number of full paper SSRN downloads as of Nov. 2nd, 2023)

Social and ecological research (responsible derivatives)

Migration policy backlash: The Effect of Foreign Aid on Migration: Global Micro Evidence from World Bank Projects by Andreas Fuchs, Andre Groeger, Tobias Heidland and Lukas Wellner as of Oct. 2023: “Our short-term results indicate that the mere announcement of a World Bank aid project significantly decreases migration preferences. We find similar effects for project disbursements, which also reduce asylum seeker flows to the OECD in the short run. This reduction seems related to enhanced optimism about the economic prospects in aid recipient provinces and improved confidence in national institutions. In the longer run, aid projects increase incomes and alleviate poverty. The negative effect of aid on asylum seeker flows fades out, and regular migration increases. … There is no evidence in our study that targeting the “root causes” of migration through aid on average increases irregular migration or asylum seeker numbers. … In the short run, aid projects reduce migration preferences and asylum seeker flows to the OECD from Latin America, MENA, and non-fragile Sub-Saharan African countries. However, we do not find a significant effect in fragile countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, which are an important source of irregular migration to Europe. For policymakers, a key takeaway from our study is that aid projects do not keep people from migrating from the 37 most hostile environments, but they can be effective in more stable environments” (p. 37/38).

Sustainable investing research (responsible derivatives)

Rating beats label: Talk vs. Walk: Lessons from Silent Sustainable Investing of Mutual Funds by Dimitrios Gounopoulos, Haoran Wu, and Binru Zhao as of Oct. 26th, 2023 (#81): “… in the Morningstar fund sustainability rating landscape, most funds with top ratings do not self-label as ESG funds (“silent” sustainable investing). … We find that investors tend to overemphasize ESG labels and often overlook sustainability rating signals in the market. More importantly, we show that “silent” funds with high sustainability ratings have comparable return performance to ESG funds and that high sustainability ratings have a stronger influence on mitigating fund risks than the ESG label” (p. 33/34). My comment: In general, I agree. But the type of ESG rating used is also very important. Watch out for my next opinion blogpost on Apple, Amazon, Alphabet etc. and their ESG-ratings

Biodiversity confusion: Critical review of methods and models for biodiversity impact assessment and their applicability in the LCA context by Mattia Damiani, Taija Sinkko, Carla Caldeira, Davide Tosches, Marine Robuchon, and Serenella Sala as of Nov. 17th, 2022 (#139): “… The five main direct drivers of biodiversity loss are climate change, pollution, land and water use, overexploitation of resources and the spread of invasive species. …  this article aims to critically analyse all methods for biodiversity impact assessment … 54 methods were reviewed and 18 were selected for a detailed analysis … There is currently no method that takes into account all five main drivers of biodiversity loss” (abstract).

Explain to change: Voting Rationales by Roni Michaely, Silvina Rubio, and Irene Yi as of Aug. 16th, 2023 (#279): “…studying voting rationales of institutional investors from across the world, for votes cast in US companies’ annual shareholder meetings between July 2013 and June 2021. … institutional investors vote against directors mainly because of (lack of) independence and board diversity. We also find evidence of some well-known reasons for opposing directors, such as tenure, busyness, or firm governance. Institutional investors are increasingly voting against directors due to concerns over environmental and social issues. Our results indicate that voting rationales are unlikely to capture proxy advisors’ rationales, but rather, the independent assessment of institutional investors. … We find that companies that receive a higher proportion of voting rationales related to board diversity (or alternatively, excessive tenure or busy directors) increase the fraction of females on board in the following year (reduce average tenure or director busyness), and the results are driven by companies that receive high shareholder dissent. … our results suggest that disclosure of voting rationales is an effective, low-cost strategy that institutional investors can use to improve corporate governance in their portfolio companies“ (p. 31/32).

Impact impact? Evaluating the Impact of Portfolio Mandates by Jack Favilukis, Lorenzo Garlappi, and  Raman Uppal as of Oct. 2nd, 2023 (#56): “… we examine the impact of portfolio (Sö: e.g. ESG or impact investing) mandates on the allocation of physical capital in a general-equilibrium economy with production and heterogenous investors. … we find that the effect of portfolio mandates on the allocation of physical capital across sectors can be substantial. In contrast, the impact on the equilibrium cost of capital and Sharpe ratio of firms in the two sectors remains negligible, consistent with existing evidence. Thus, a key takeaway of our analysis is that judging the effectiveness of portfolio mandates by studying their effect on the cost of capital of affected firms can be misleading: small differences in the cost of capital across sectors can be associated with significant differences in the allocation of physical capital across these sectors” (p. 31/32). My comment: With my ESG and SDG investing mandates I want to invest as responsibly as possible and hope to achieve similar performances as less responsible investments. With this approach, there is no need to try to prove lower cost of capital for responsible companies.

Responsible derivatives? Climate Risk and Financial Markets: The Case of Green Derivatives by Paolo Saguato as of Oct. 30th, 2023 (#37): “The post-2008 derivatives markets are more transparent and more collateralized than before. However, this regulatory framework might impose excessive regulatory and compliance costs to derivatives market which would undermine market incentives and hamper financial innovation in the green derivatives. … Right now, bespoke OTC sustainable derivatives are the predominant structures in the market, but as soon as green assets and sustainability benchmark standardization will become the norm, then exchange-traded green derivatives might start to develop more strongly, providing a valuable and reliable support to a green transition” (p. 23).

Other investment research

Responsible derivatives? Structured retail products: risk-sharing or risk-creation? by Otavio Bitu, Bruno Giovannetti, and Bernardo Guimaraes as of October 31, 2023 (#151): “Financial institutions have been issuing more complex structured retail products (SRPs) over time. Is risk-sharing the force behind this financial innovation? Is this innovation welfare-increasing? We propose a simple test for that. If a given type of SRP is not based on risk-sharing and pours new unbacked risk into the financial system, we should observe an unusual negative relation between risk and expected return offered to buyers across products of that type. We test this hypothesis using a sample of 1,847 SRPs and find that a relevant type of SRP (Autocallables) creates new unbacked risk” (abstract).

Irrational finance professional? Mental Models of the Stock Market by Peter Andre, Philipp Schirmer, and Johannes Wohlfart as of Oct. 31st, 2023 (#74): “Financial markets are governed by return expectations, which agents must form in light of their deeper understanding of these markets. Understanding agents’ mental models is thus critical to understanding how return expectations are formed. … We document a widespread tendency among households from the general population, retail investors, and financial professionals to draw inferences from stale news regarding future company earnings to a company’s prospective stock return, which is absent among academic experts. This striking difference in their return forecasts results from differences in agents’ understanding of financial markets. Experts’ reasoning aligns with standard asset pricing logic and a belief in efficient markets. By contrast, households and financial professionals appear to employ a naive model that directly associates higher future earnings with higher future returns, neglecting the offsetting effect of endogenous price adjustments. This non-equilibrium reasoning stems from a lack of familiarity with the concept of equilibrium rather than inattention to trading or price responses. … Our findings – that mental models differ across economic agents and that they drastically differ from standard economic theories among important groups of households and financial professionals who advise and trade for these households – are likely to have significant implications. For example, our findings can provide a new perspective on previously documented anomalies in return expectations and trading decisions” (p. 30/31).

M&A not IPO: IPOs on the decline: The role of globalization by M. Vahid Irani, Gerard Pinto, and Donghang Zhang as of Oct. 2nd, 2023 (#37): “Using the average percentage of foreign sales as a proxy for the level of globalization of the U.S. economy or a particular industry, we find that the decline in U.S. initial public offerings (IPOs), particularly small-firm IPOs, is significantly positively associated with the level of globalization at both the macroeconomy and the industry levels. We also find that increased globalization of an industry makes a U.S. private firm in the industry more likely to choose M&A sellouts over IPOs as an exit strategy”“ (abstract).

Unattractive Alternatives: Endowments in the Casino: Even the Whales Lose at the Alts Table by Richard M. Ennis as of Oct. 27th, 2023 (#516): “For more than two decades, so-called alternatives—hedge funds, private-market real estate, venture capital, leveraged buyouts, private energy, infrastructure, and private debt—have been the principal focus of institutional investors. Such investments now constitute an average of 60% of the assets of large endowments and 30% of public pension funds. … … endowments—across the board—have underperformed passive investment alternatives by economically wide margins since the GFC (Sö: Global Financial Crisis) … We observe that large endowments have recorded greater returns than smaller ones because they take greater risk (have a greater equity exposure), not as a result of their alt investing. In fact, their greater returns have occurred in spite of their heavier weighting of alt investments. Alt-investing has not been a source of diversification of stock market risk. … I estimate that institutional investors pay approximately 10 times as much for their alts as they do for traditional stock-bond strategies… despite exhibiting some skill with alts, large endowments would have been better off leaving them alone altogether” (p. 8/9). My comment: See Alternatives: Thematic replace alternative investments (prof-soehnholz.com)

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Liquid impact advert for German investors

Sponsor my research by investing in and/or recommending my global small/midcap mutual fund (SFDR Art. 9). The fund focuses on social SDGs and uses separate E, S and G best-in-universe minimum ratings and broad shareholder engagement with currently 27 of 28 companiesFutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals R – DE000A2P37T6 – A2P37T or Noch eine Fondsboutique? – Responsible Investment Research Blog (prof-soehnholz.com)

Woodpecker as picture for beyond ESG research, picture by pixabay

Beyond ESG: Researchposting 116

Beyond ESG: 21x new research on bioenergy, CSR, carbon policy, greenium, ESG ratings, ecolabel, greentech, transition, fiduciaries, impact, activism, insiders, 1/n, SPACs, private equity and female founders by Timo Busch, Andreas Hoepner and many more

Social and ecological research

High bio-emissions: Emissions of Wood Pelletization and Solid Bioenergy Use in the United States by Huy Tran, Edie Juno, and Saravanan Arunachalam as of Dec. 27th, 2022 (#6): “… we find that this sector’s emissions could be potentially underestimated by a factor of two. Emissions from biomass-based facilities are on an average up to 2.8 times higher than their non-biomass counterpart per unit energy. Up to 2.3 million people live within 2km of a biomass facility, and who could be subject to adverse health impacts from their emissions. Overall, bioenergy sector contributes to about 3 – 17% of total emissions from all energy, i.e., electric and non-electric generating facilities in the U.S. In comparison to residential wood combustion, bioenergy sector emissions are lower in VOC, CO, NH3, and directly emitted PM2.5, but higher in NOX and SO2. We also review some drivers of bioenergy expansion, various feedstocks and technologies deployed with an emphasis on wood-based bioenergy and discuss their implications for future air quality and health impacts” (abstract).

Research overview: The Past and Future of Corporate Sustainability Research by Vanessa Burbano, Magali A. Delmas, and Manuel Jesus Cobo as of Oct. 13th, 2022 (#122): “… we present a comprehensive review of the field of corporate sustainability using a science mapping co-word bibliometric analysis. Through analysis of the co-occurrence of 25,701 keywords in 11,962 sustainability-related articles from 1994-2021, we identify and graphically illustrate the thematic and theoretical evolution of the field, in addition to emerging and waning research trends in the field. We characterize the most impactful articles of sustainability research in terms of disciplinary focus, topic of focus, dependent variable of focus, unit of analysis, and research method employed” (abstract).

Climate policy works: Carbon Policy Surprises and Stock Returns: Signals from Financial Markets by Martina Hengge, Ugo Panizza, and Richard Varghese as of Feb. 1st, 2023 (#18): “…. the creation of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) in 2005. This “cap and trade” scheme places a limit on the right to emit greenhouse gases and allows companies to trade emission allowances. … we show that regulatory surprises that result in an increase in carbon prices have a negative and statistically significant impact on stock returns, which increases with a firm’s carbon intensity. This negative relationship becomes even stronger when we drop firms in sectors which participate in the EU ETS, suggesting that investors price in transition risk stemming from the shift towards a low-carbon economy“ (p. 22).

Advert for German investors: “Sponsor” my research by investing in and/or recommending my article 9 mutual fund. I focus on social SDGs and midcaps and use separate E, S and G best-in-universe minimum ratings. The fund typically scores very well in sustainability rankings, e.g. this free new tool, and the performance is relatively good: FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals R – DE000A2P37T6 – A2P37T

… continues on page 2 (# indicates the number of SSRN downloads on February 5th, 2023):

Bank climate risks: earth with tornado as illustration

Bank climate risks and more (Researchblog 113)

Bank climate risks: >20x new research on CO2 bio-capture, ESG ratings, inflation, greenwashing, diversity, gender pay gap, shareholder engagement, investment consultants, ML and hybrid robo-advisors

Social and ecological research

CO2 bio-capture: Scalable, Economical, and Stable Sequestration of Agricultural Fixed Carbon by Eli Yablonovitch and Harry Deckman as of Dec. 28th, 2022 (#129): “We describe a scalable, economical solution to the Carbon Dioxide problem. CO2 is captured from the atmosphere by cellulosic plants, and the harvested vegetation is then salted and buried in an engineered dry biolandfill. Plant biomass can be preserved for hundreds to thousands of years by burial in a dry environment … Current agriculture costs, and biolandfill costs indicate US$60/tonne of sequestered CO2 which corresponds to ~US$0.60 per gallon of gasoline. The technology is scalable owing to the large area of land available for cellulosic crops, without disturbing food production. If scaled to the level of a major crop, existing CO2 can be extracted from the atmosphere, and simultaneously sequester a significant fraction of world CO2 emissions” (abstract).

Regulated innovation: The effects of environmental innovations on labor productivity: How does it pay to be green by Hannu Piekkola and Jaana Rahko as of Jan. 10th, 2023 (#6): “This paper adds to the literature by examining environmental innovations as part of overall firm innovation activity among Finnish manufacturing and energy sector firms … Our empirical analysis shows that regulation-driven environmental innovations enhance productivity … Introducing new environmental regulations increases environmental innovativeness, which in turn leads to improved firm performance that can apparently compensate for all of the costs of regulation. Nordic firms may have benefited from a first-mover advantage by becoming green in many industries … Many companies set targets for themselves that are even stricter than what the regulations require because they want to set a model for other companies and stakeholders” (p. 21/22).

Advert for German investors: “Sponsor” my research by investing in and/or recommending my article 9 mutual fund. I focus on social SDGs and midcaps and use separate E, S and G best-in-universe minimum ratings. The fund typically scores very well in sustainability rankings, e.g. this free new tool, and the performance is relatively good: FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals R – DE000A2P37T6 – A2P37T

… continues on page 2 (# indicates the number of SSRN downloads on January 21st, 2023):

Nature picture as illustration for positive immigration blogpost

Positive immigration and more little known research (Researchposting 110)

Positive immigration: >20x new research on climate conflicts, inequality, immigration, gas price break, carbon pricing, solar sharing, cool cities, brown banks, greenwashing, biodiversity, analysts and consultants, voting and engagement and private equity by Christina Bannier, Lucian Bebchuk, Alexander Wagner et al.

Social research: Positive immigration and more

Climate conflicts: Climate Shocks and Domestic Conflicts in Africa by Yoro Diallo and René Tapsoba as of December 29th, 2022 (#8): “We build on a broad panel of 51 Africa countries over the 1990-2018 period. We unveil key results with far-reaching policy implications. First, we find suggestive evidence that climate shocks, as captured through weather shocks, increase the likelihood of domestic conflicts, by as high as up to 38 percent. Second, the effect holds only for intercommunal conflicts, not for government-involved conflicts. Third, the effect is magnified in countries with more unequal income distribution and a stronger share of young male demographics, while higher quality social protection and access to basic health care services, stronger tax revenue mobilization, scaled up public investment in the agricultural sector, and stepped-up anti-desertification efforts appear as relevant resilience factors to this vicious climate-conflicts nexus” (p. 26).

Wealth inequality: Who Gets the Flow? Financial Globalisation and Wealth Inequality by Simone Arrigoni as of December 13th, 2022 (#14): “The main result points towards a significant positive link between the increase in financial globalisation (proxied with the IFI) and changes in the top 1% (the rich) and 10% (upper middle-class) wealth shares and a significant negative link with changes in the wealth share of the bottom 50% of the distribution (working class). … I find that the main driving components of this result appear to be portfolio equities and financial derivatives. … I find that the increase in inequality following the acceleration in financial globalisation is driven by the flow. The wealthy get richer due to an expansion of their portfolios rather than just a market value gain on their existing stock of wealth. … the main finding is strengthened in the event of a systemic banking crisis“ (p. 25/26).

Gender inequality gaps: Tackling Gender Inequality: Definitions, Trends, and Policy Designs by Baoping Shang as of Dec. 21st, 2022 (#27): “… gender inequality needs to be distinguished from gender gaps. … addressing gender inequality benefits everyone, not just women. … as gender inequality becomes more subtle and implicit, targeted gender policies will likely need to play an increasing role … The paper concludes by discussing gaps in the literature and policy challenges going forward” (abstract).

Advert for German investors: “Sponsor” my research by recommending my article 9 fund. The minimum investment is approx. EUR 50 and return and risks are relatively good: FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals R – DE000A2P37T6 – A2P37T: I focus on social SDGs and midcaps and use best-in-universe as well as separate E, S and G minimum ratings. The fund typically scores very well in sustainability rankings, see this new tool for example.

… continues on page 2 (# indicates the number of SSRN downloads on January 7th, 2023):

Nature picture as illustration for positive immigration blogpost

Investors drive ESG (Researchblog #99)

Investors drive ESG: >10x new research on climate spillovers, plastic, supply chains, bribes, gender, credit, ESG, behavioral finance, hedge funds, art investments and Bitcoin by Luc Renneboog, Planet Tracker et al.

Ecological and social topics

Costly climate spillovers: Stress Testing the Global Economy to Climate Change-Related Shocks in Large and Interconnected Economies by Yeu Jin Jung, Camilo E. Tovar, Yiqun Wu, and Tianxiao Zheng as of October 4th, 2022 (#3): “Our simulations show that an extreme climate change-related shock in large and interconnected economies could have a systemic economic and financial impact on the global economy. … global losses as measured by the decline in global aggregate international reserve could reach $ 1.8 trillion. … these losses would be equivalent to nearly four times the size of the bailout packages for Greece, Portugal, and Ireland during European debt crisis. … ensuring an adequate use of domestic macroeconomic policies and support from the global financial safety net … can reduce the global reserve losses due to the climate change-related shock, by more than a half, to about $ 800 billion” (p. 21/22).

Advert for German investors: “Sponsor” my free research by buying my Article 9 fund. The minimum investment is around EUR 50. FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals R – DE000A2P37T6 – A2P37T: With my most responsible stock selection approach, I focus on social SDGs and midcaps and use best-in-universe as well as separate E, S and G minimum ratings (compare Konzentration und SDG-Fokus gut: Meine 9 Monats Performance 2022 – Responsible Investment Research Blog (prof-soehnholz.com)).

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Zeitungen als Bild für ESG reporting

ESG reporting outperformance? (Researchblog #93)

ESG reporting outperformance: >20x new research on gender, food, climate risk, central banks, voluntary and mandatory ESG reporting and ratings, EU taxonomy, article 9 funds, divestments, voting, (debtholder) engagement, impact, capital costs, banks, conviction, SRI ETFs, islamic funds and real estate

Advert: Check my article 9 SFDR fund FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals (-0,5% YTD). With my most responsible stock selection approach I focus on social SDGs and midcaps and use best-in-universe as well as separate E, S and G minimum ratings.

Social and Ecological Research

Genderlaw effects: Legal Gender Equality as a Catalyst for Convergence by Can Sever of the International Monetary Fund as of August 10th, 2022 (#4): “This paper … shows that more gender-equal laws facilitate income convergence across countries over time, thereby mitigating income inequality across countries. The results point to large economic gains from moving toward legal gender equality” (p. 26/27).

Continue on page 2 (# indicates the number of SSRN downloads on August 11th):

ESG regulation: Das Bild von Thomas Hartmann zeigt Blumen in Celle

ESG overall (Researchblog #91)

ESG overall: >15x new research on fixed income ESG, greenium, insurer ESG investing, sin stocks, ESG ratings, impact investments, real estate ESG, equity lending, ESG derivatives, virtual fashion, bio revolution, behavioral ESG investing

Advert: Check my article 9 SFDR fund FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals (-2,9% YTD). With my most responsible stock selection approach I focus on social SDGs and midcaps and use best-in-universe as well as separate E, S and G minimum ratings.

Continue on page 2 (# indicates the number of SSRN downloads on July 25th):

Bild zum Beitrag ESG skeptical zeigt eine Ansicht einer Allee aus dem Celler Französischen Garten

ESG skeptical research (Researchblog #90)

ESG skeptical: >15x new and skeptical research on ESG and SDG investments, performance, cost of capital, reporting, ratings, impact, bonifications and artificial intelligence

Advert: Check my article 9 SFDR fund FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals. With my most responsible selection approach I focus on social SDGs and midcaps and use best-in-universe as well as separate E, S and G minimum ratings.

Continue on page 2 (# indicates the number of SSRN downloads on July 5th):

Heidebild als Illustration für Proven Impact Investing

ESG ok, SDG gut: Performance 1. HJ 2022

ESG ok, SDG gut: Im ersten Halbjahr 2022 haben meine Trendfolgeportfolios sowie die Portfolios, die sich an den nachhaltigen Entwicklungszielen der Vereinten Nationen ausrichten (SDG), zwar auch an Wert verloren, aber dafür relativ gut gegenüber Vergleichsgruppen performt. Das gilt besonders auch für den FutureVest Equities SDG Fonds. Anders als die meist OK gelaufenen globalen haben spezialisierte ESG Portfolios der Soehnholz ESG GmbH im ersten Halbjahr schlechter als traditionelle Vergleichsportfolios abgeschnitten. Dafür war deren Performance in der Vergangenheit oft überdurchschnittlich.

Werbemitteilung: Kennen Sie meinen Artikel 9 Fonds FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals: Fokus auf soziale SDGs und Midcaps, Best-in-Universe Ansatz, getrennte E, S und G Mindestratings.

Auf Seite 2 folgt die Übersicht der Halbjahresrenditen für die 15 nachhaltigen und zwei traditionellen Portfolios von Soehnholz ESG sowie für meinen Fonds.

Pictures shows Fire Icon by Elionas

ESG and impact investments under fire (Researchpost #89)

Under fire includes >10x new research on ESG and factors, performance, commitment, regulation, scope 3 GHG, market potential, indices, reporting, engagement, and impact washing

Advert: Check my article 9 SFDR fund FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals. With my most responsible selection approach I focus on social SDGs and midcaps and use best-in-universe as well as separate E, S and G minimum ratings.

Continue on page 2 (# indicates the number of SSRN downloads on June 28th):