Archiv der Kategorie: Altersvorsorge

Nature credits illustration by MW from Pixabay

Nature credits and more: Researchpost 198

Nature credits:14x new research on GHG-data driven innovation, EU taxonomy benefits, diverse green preferences, ESG fund manipulation, ESG rating problems, AI for ESG, Art. 8/9 fund and SDG performance, nature credits, ESG compensation, AI-based financial analysis, retirement surprises and neighbor investment effects („#“ shows SSRN full paper downloads as of Oct. 17th, 2024)

Social and ecological research

GHG-data startup push: Mandatory Carbon Disclosure and New Business Creation by Raphael Duguay, Chenchen Li, and Frank Zhang as of Oct. 14th, 2024 (#36): “Prior work documents that mandatory GHG disclosure causes existing firms to reduce their GHG emissions by curbing economic activities and/or carbon intensity. We posit that such reductions create business opportunities for new firms. In addition, emissions reports contain information about production levels, allowing prospective entrants to estimate demand and identify profitable business opportunities. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find a significant increase in business births following the implementation of the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program in affected industries, compared to control industries. This effect is more pronounced in industries in which existing firms actively reduce carbon emissions and face heightened pressure“ (abstract).

Responsible investment research (in: Nature credits)

Good EU taxonomy? Is the EU Taxonomy a Rational Sustainability Tool? by Ibrahim E. Sancak as of Oct. 16th, 2024 (#89): “This paper examines the EU Sustainability Taxonomy (EUST) … As a regulation-based sustainability classification tool, it differs significantly from typical ESG indicators and perspectives by providing net positive-contribution indicators in terms of revenue, capex, and opex key performance indicators for businesses. … We find that the EUST is in the realm of the rational sustainability concept, indicating that the EUST is a rational sustainability tool, and it supports sustainability at heart by definition and design. The EUST is a real sustainability tool that can restore the losses of our planet and answer to challenges. It does not breach the free market realities. Companies decide their own sustainability policies; they can decide to what extent they should be Taxonomy-aligned, they can decide how much they have to invest in sustainability transformation, and they can freely decide which Taxonomy KPIs they have to focus on …“ (p. 21). My comment: I like the focus of the EUST on revenues, opex and capex but it can only provide politically accepted low minimum standards (see discussion about Gas, nuclear energy and defense industry) and it mostly leaves out social and shareholder engagement topics. It may be rational and not good enough, anyhow.

Different green preferences: The Sustainability Preferences of Individual and Institutional Investors by Gosia Ryduchowska and Moqi Groen-Xu as of Oct. 16th, 2024 (#16): “We compare the sustainability preferences of institutional investors to other investors, using the universe of holdings in bonds traded in Norway in the years 2010-20. We identify sustainability investors as those who choose Green Bonds over similar non-green bonds by the same issuers. … individual investors hold riskier portfolios with higher volatility and more defaults, although financial investors do not. Our results suggest that individual Green Bond investors have non-pecuniary green preferences but are not representative of the majority of sustainable investment in the market“ (abstract). My comment: I initiated the DVFA PRISC toll which helps investors to easily determine their sustainable investment policies and use this tool to compare investment options (DVFA_PRISC_Policy_for_Responsible_Investment_Scoring.pdf). A new version will be published soon.

ESG fund pushing? ESG Favoritism in Mutual Fund Families by Anna Zsofia Csiky, Rainer Jankowitsch, Alexander Pasler, and Marti G. Subrahmanyam as of Oct. 15th, 2024 (#34): “We empirically analyze whether mutual fund families favor their ESG funds potentially at the expense of their non-ESG siblings … We use a survivorship bias-free sample obtained from Morningstar Direct, covering domestic US equity open-end funds from 2005 to 2022. … Our approach is built on comparing the performance of ESG with regular funds within and outside the family. Similar to the prior literature, we interpret a higher return differential between ESG and regular funds within the family, compared to outside, as an indication of cross-fund subsidization. We find a significant net-ofstyle return spread of around 2% per year, indicating sizable ESG favoritism within fund families“ (p. 30).

ESG rating problems and improvements: It’s Hard to Hit a Target that Doesn’t Exist: A Novel Conceptual Framework for ESG Ratings by Jorge Cruz-Lopez, Jordan B. Neyland, and  Dasha Smirnow as of Oct. 16th, 2024 (#8): “… Our framework consists of analyzing three different stages in the production of ESG ratings: (1) Data Collection and Disclosure, (2) Measurement, and (3) Dissemination. At each stage, we clearly identify the parties involved, their incentives and limitations, and the noise or bias introduced to ESG ratings due to misaligned incentives, data constraints, or inadequate regulations…  solutions include improving disclosure standards, incentivizing public data access to foster competition as well as transparency of rating methodologies, and relying on regular audits to verify the accuracy of corporate disclosures and ESG ratings“ (abstract).

Readability ESG impact: Evaluating the Impact of Report Readability on ESG Scores: A Generative AI Approach by Takuya Shimamura, Yoshitaka Tanaka, and Shunsuke Managi as of July 8th, 2024 (#46):  “This study explores the relationship between the readability of sustainability reports and ESG scores for U.S. companies using GPT-4, a generative AI tool. The findings reveal a positive correlation between context-dependent readability scores and the average of multiple ESG scores …. Conversely, existing readability scores reflecting word features show no correlation with ESG scores“ (abstract).

AI for ESG: AI in ESG for Financial Institutions: An Industrial Survey by Jun Xu as of Oct. 11th, 2024 (#21): “This paper surveys the industrial landscape to delineate the necessity and impact of AI in bolstering ESG frameworks. … our findings suggest that while AI offers transformative potential for ESG in banking, it also poses significant challenges that necessitate careful consideration. … We conclude with recommendations with a reference architecture for future research and development, advocating for a balanced approach that leverages AI’s strengths while mitigating its risks within the ESG domain“ (abstract).

No Art. 8/9 outperformance: SFDR versus performance classification: a clustering approach by Veronica Distefano, Vincenzo Gentile, Paolo Antonio Cucurachi and Sandra De Iaco as of July 10th, 2024 (#25): EU “… investment companies have to disclose in the key information document the category of each mutual fund. This regulation came into force in March 2021 and the first reaction of the market has been a strong shift of Assets Under Management (AUM) towards art. 8 and art. 9 funds. … This study showed that the expectations of better performances only based on the SFDR (Sö: Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation) classification is biased. … the contingency table show a low correlation of the classifications based on ESG declaration and on performances. … using the SFDR classification to create expectations of better future performance could be misleading“ (p. 8). My comment: I rather heard complaints lower performance expectations for Art. 8/9 funds due to perceived investment limitations. If there are similar returns, why not invest more sustainably?

Impact Investment research

Green cost reduction and SDG performance: The effects of ESG performance and sustainability disclosure on GSS bonds’ yields and spreads: A global analysis by Oliviero Roggi, Luca Bellardini, and Sara Conticelli as of July 10th, 2024 (#30): “Considering a sample of 3,960 green, sustainable, and sustainability-linked (GSS) bonds issued in global capital markets, this study investigates the effects of the issuer’s environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance on both the issue-specific yield spread — defined as the difference in yield-to-maturity between a corporate debt instrument and a sovereign comparable — and its spread vis-à-vis a sovereign comparable. The findings indicate that there is a negative association between ESG performance and bond spreads, implying that a greater commitment to the sustainable transition today is a winning strategy, for a company, to reduce the cost of debt for future projects. … we find that the real enabler of curbing the unexplained portion of risk is a detailed disclosure on the use of proceeds. This is likely to minimise the likelihood of greenwashing” (abstract).

“… With regard to Core yield, the pursuit of Goal 2 (Zero hunger) and Goal 9 (Industry, innovation and infrastructure) is associated with a reduction in risk, whereas Goal 3 (Good health and well-being) and Goal 12 (Responsible consumption and production) are found to be risk-accruing. With regard to Core spread, Goal 5 (Gender equality), in addition to Goals 2 and 9, is negatively associated with a company’s cost of debt, net of the financial characteristics of the issue. The pursuit of Goal 12 and Goal 8 (Decent work and economic growth) has the opposite effect, but not Goal 3” (p. 6). My comment: This is one of the few studies with SDG-analysis. I hope that more will come.

Nature credits: Advancing Effective and Equitable Crediting: Natural Climate Solutions Crediting Handbook by John Ward, Christine Gerbode, Britta Johnston, and Suzi Kerr as of Oct. 10th, 2024 (#8): “Natural Climate Solutions, or NCS, are activities to protect, restore, or enhance ecosystems in terms of their ability to remove or sequester carbon. They can deliver about one third of the greenhouse gas emissions reductions needed this decade to achieve key climate goals. Implemented well, they also provide benefits for people and nature. Crediting of NCS mitigation is a powerful way to unlock this potential–but it is also controversial. … By clarifying essential terms and concepts underpinning NCS carbon crediting, highlighting solutions to technical challenges, and providing informed framing to help newcomers understand prominent ongoing debates, the NCS Crediting Handbook seeks to provide the reader with a clear introduction to the world of NCS crediting, and an impartial, accessible guide to support their decision making“ (abstract).

ESG compensation challenges: Implicit versus Explicit Contracting in Executive Compensation for Environmental and Social Performance by Roni Michaely, Thomas Schmid, and Menghan Wang as of Oct. 16th, 2024 (#31): “We examine whether linking executive pay to environmental and social targets (ES Pay) can help improve firms’ environmental and social performance. … firms that use explicit contracting for targets that can be precisely and objectively measured, such as emissions and incident rates, demonstrate better ES performance. By contrast, firms with implicit contracting show little improvement in these areas. However, for targets that are hard to measure, such as community engagement, or E/S reporting, implicit contracts are effective and can even outperform explicit contracting. … we observe a positive association between the adoption of ES Pay schemes and total CEO compensation … even when an increase in executive pay is observed, it is also associated with improved firms’ ES conduct. We find no increase in CEO pay among those firms using explicit schemes, or implicit schemes for easily measurable targets“ (p. 28/29). My comment: CEO pay is usually already very high with, quite often, >300x the average employee compensation. Introducing sustainability goals in executive compensation should not lead to a growing gap, in my opinion. One of my 5 shareholder engagement topics therefore is CEO to average employee pay ratio disclosure.

Other investment research (in: Nature Credits)

Financial Analyst AI-Risks: Large Language Models as Financial Analysts by Miquel Noguer i Alonso and Hanane Dupouy as of Oct. 7th, 2024 (#1004): “The ability of … GPT-4o, Gemini Advanced, and Claude 3.5 Sonnet to perform financial analysis highlights their potential as powerful tools for interpreting complex financial data. … When it comes to extrapolation questions that are the core of valuation and stock picking, the level of analysis provided by these LLMs is similar to that of skilled humans” (p. 15). My comment: Given the underperfomance of actively managed funds compared to passive benchmarks, this AI-performance is not enough.

Retirement surprises: Patterns of Consumption and Savings around Retirement by Arna Olafsson and Michaela Pagel as of Oct. 7th, 2024 (#23): “Using a large transaction-level data set from a financial aggregator on income, spending, account balances, and credit limits in Iceland, we document“ (p. 16) … First, many households have barely any savings and hold substantial amounts of consumer debt at the time of retirement. Second, consumption falls at retirement, possibly due to work-related expenses, bargain shopping, or because households face unexpected adverse shocks. Third, liquid savings increase at retirement. Fourth, wealth increases more over the course of retirement for the average household”.

Neighbor investment-effects: Wealth Accumulation: The Role of Others by Michael Haliassos as of Oct. 7th, 2024 (#19): “First, interacting with a larger proportion of neighbors with college-level economics or business education tends to promote retirement saving. … Second, college-educated people exposed to greater local wealth inequality as well as more wealth mobility at the start of their economic lives, tend to take more asset risks later in life and thus accrue greater wealth, leaving the less-educated behind. … Third, the current pattern of access to financial advice, under which the young and less experienced are also less likely to receive financial advice, tends to discourage stock market participation and reduce equity in retirement portfolios, because the peers of the young tend to be more conservative in their recommendations to them than professionals would have been. Professional advisors are more conservative towards the older and wealthier people that they do meet, compared to their peers. Finally, background stressors such as crises and wars, but also personal problems, occupy people’s minds as they make saving decisions” (p. 23/24).

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Werbehinweis (in: Nature credits)

Unterstützen Sie meinen Researchblog, indem Sie in den von mir beratenen globalen Small-Cap-Investmentfonds (siehe FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals R – DE000A2P37T6 – A2P37T) investieren und/oder ihn empfehlen. Der Fonds konzentriert sich auf die UN-Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung (aktuell durchschnittlich außerordentlich hohe 97% SDG-vereinbare Umsätze der Portfoliounternehmen: Investment impact) und verwendet separate E-, S- und G-Best-in-Universe-Mindestratings sowie Aktionärsengagement (Investor impact) bei derzeit 29 von 30 Unternehmen (siehe auch My fund).

Zum Vergleich: Globale Gesundheits- bzw. Renewables- oder SDG-Fonds kommen nur auf wesentlich geringere SDG-Umsatzquoten, ESG-Ratings und Engagement-Quoten.

Wong ESG compensation illustration from Pixabay by Ray Alexander

Wrong ESG compensation? Researchpost 196

Wrong ESG compensation: 10x new research on new toxics, climate target ambitions, financial analysts and climate topics, new ESG regulation effect on investments, ESG compensation governance deficits, ESG compensation outcome deficits, costly custom indices, unattractive private capital investments, gender-typical investment problems, and AI for retirement planning

ESG research

New toxics: Novel Entities – A financial time bomb by Planet Tracker as of Oct. 1st, 2024: “There are hundreds of thousands of novel entities – toxic substances created by humans and released into the environment that may be disruptive to the planet – travelling through the global economy. … most novel entities have not undergone safety assessments or information on those are protected or not shared. … Evaluating novel entities after they have been created and released is not acceptable. … Novel entities are often viewed by investors and lenders as technological progress adding to revenue and earnings potential. Novel entities are a source of significant litigation risk. Novel entities produced decades ago can still cause significant financial downside to companies today and in the future” (p. 5).

Intrinsic climate success: Raising the bar: What determines the ambition level of corporate climate targets? by Clara Privato, Matthew P. Johnson, and Timo Busch as of Sept. 9th, 2024: “Since the launch of the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), we have witnessed a steady increase in the number of companies committing to climate targets for large-scale reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. … a two-stage qualitative study is conducted with a sample of 22 companies from five countries. … Within companies with highly ambitious climate targets, the findings indicate that certain factors are highly present, including leadership engagement, continual management support, employee involvement, participation in climate initiatives, and stakeholder collaboration. Conversely, none of these key factors are highly present in companies with less ambitious climate targets. Rather, these companies strongly identify the initiating factors of market-related pressures and non-market stakeholder influence as being the driving forces behind their target setting“ (abstract).

Climate analysts? Climate Value and Values Discovery by Zacharias Sautner, Laurence van Lent, Grigory Vilkov, and Ruishen Zhang as of July 24th, 2024 (#953): “Analyzing more than 310,000 earnings calls spanning two decades … the interest of analysts in “green topics ” is situational, reflecting market demands rather than persistent individual traits. Trading volume around earnings announcements is positively associated with the degree of climate discussions on earnings calls. … we find correlations between an analyst’s profile in earnings calls and career trajectories, with climate-centric analysts, particularly those focusing on value, experiencing better job opportunities. Climate analysts use voice, not exit, to ask (brown) firms to change“ (p. 25/26).

Regulation-driven divestments: Triggering a Divestment Wave? How ESMA’s Guidelines on ESG Fund Names Affect Fund Portfolios and Stocks by Stefan Jacob, Pauline Vitzthum, and Marco Wilkens as of Sept. 12th, 2024 (#58): “This paper examines the impact of the European Securities and Markets Authority’s (ESMA) Guidelines on funds’ names using ESG-related terms. These guidelines define clear exclusion criteria for sustainability-named funds. We examine the extent to which funds will be required to exclude non-compliant stocks, resulting in substantial divestments, particularly from firms with fossil fuel involvements. The enforcement of these guidelines is expected to significantly decarbonize the portfolios of sustainability-named funds, while at the same time triggering unprecedented selling pressure on certain stocks“ (abstract).

Wrong ESG compensation (1): ESG Overperformance? Assessing the Use of ESG Targets in Executive Compensation Plans by Adam B. Badawi and Robert Bartlett as of Sept. 10th, 2024 (#366): “The practice of linking executive compensation to ESG performance has recently become more prevalent in US public companies. In this paper, we document the extent of this practice within S&P 500 firms during the 2023 proxy season … We find that 315 of these firms (63.0%) include an ESG component in their executives’ compensation and that the vast majority of these incentives are part of the annual incentive plan (AIA) … While executives miss all of their financial targets 22% of the time in our sample, we show that this outcome is exceptionally rare for ESG-based compensation. Only 6 of 247 (2%) firms that disclose an ESG performance incentive report missing all of the ESG targets. We ask whether the ESG overperformance that we observe is associated with exceptional ESG outcomes or, instead, is related to governance deficiencies. Our findings that meeting ESG-based targets is not associated with improvements in ESG scores and that the presence of ESG-linked compensation is associated with more opposition in say-on-pay votes provides support for the weak governance theory over the exceptional performance theory“ (abstract). My comment With my shareholder engagement I ask companies to publish the pay ratio between their CEO and the average employee. Thus, all stakeholders can monitor if ESG compensation increases this already typically critically high metric (which I fear), also see Wrong ESG bonus math? Content-Post #188 and Kontraproduktive ESG-Ziele für Führungskräfte? | CAPinside

Wrong ESG compensation (2)? Paychecks with a Purpose: Evaluating the Effectiveness of CEO Equity and Cash Compensation for the Triple Bottom Line by Dennis Bams, Frederique Bouwman, and Bart Frijns as of Oct. 2nd, 2024 (#4): “We find that CEOs are more inclined to opt for a CSR strategy emphasizing Environmental Outcomes when they receive a larger proportion of their compensation in cash. … additional tests show that intentions have no predictive power for outcomes. … While the proportion of option compensation is beneficial for a CSR strategy that focuses on outcomes, the proportion of stock compensation motivates a focus on intentions. … In conclusion, our study shows that the prevailing approach of compensation packages focusing on equity compensation does not promote the triple bottom line principle.

Other investment research (in: Wrong ESG compensation)

Index illusion: Index Disruption: The Promise and Pitfalls of Self-Indexed ETFs by Bige Kahraman, Sida Li, and Anthony Limburg as of Sept. 27th, 2024 (#42): “The market for index providers is a concentrated market where the five largest providers serve approximately 95 percent of the market. … An increasing number of ETF issuers are creating proprietary indices in-house to avoid paying fees to third party index providers. In this paper, we … find that self-index funds offer higher, not lower, fees to their customers. To explain this, we suggest two hypotheses, one based on product differentiation and the other one based on conflicts of interest. Our results support the latter“ (p. 22). My comment: There are many (sustainability policy) reasons for custom portfolios but these portfolios should not be more expensive (see e.g. my direct SDG indexing options)

Private capital alpha illusion: The Private Capital Alpha by Gregory Brown, Andrei S. Goncalves, and Wendy Hu as of Sept. 25th, 2024 (#368): “We combine a large sample of 5,028 U.S. buyout, venture capital, and real estate funds from 1987 to 2022 to estimate the alphas of private capital asset classes under realistic simulations that account for the illiquidity and underdiversification in private markets as well as the portfolio allocation of typical limited partners. We find that buyout as an asset class has provided a positive and statistically significant alpha during our sample period. In contrast, over our sample period, the venture capital alpha was positive but statistically unreliable and the real estate alpha was, if anything, negative“ (p. 31). My comment: Most investors use gatekeepers of funds of funds to invest in private capital and after those costs even buyout alpha may be negligible”.

Lower-risk women: How Gender Differences and Behavioral Traits matter in Financial Decision-Making? Insights from Experimental and Survey Data by Giuseppe Attanasi, Simona Cicognani, Paola Paiardini, and Maria Luigia Signore as of Feb. 3rd, 2024 (#112): “… Our research suggests that gender alone does not exclusively determine diverse behavioral and investment choices. Instead, it is the context in which these choices are elicited that plays a crucial role. …(but) female investors consistently demonstrated a lower likelihood of engaging in investment activities across the financial domains of risk and ambiguity. … a tendency to invest less in risky financial assets limits the potential for accumulating greater wealth over time “ (p. 30).

Financial AI? Can ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?: Generative AI and Financial Advice by Andrew W. Lo and Jillian Ross as of Sept. 4th, 2024 (#896): “… We focus on three challenges facing most LLM applications: domain-specific expertise and the ability to tailor that expertise to a user’s unique situation, trustworthiness and adherence to the user’s moral and ethical standards, and conformity to regulatory guidelines and oversight. … we focus on the narrow context of financial advice … Our goal is not to provide solutions to these challenges … but to propose a framework and road map for solving them as part of a larger research agenda for improving generative AI in any application” (abstract).

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Werbehinweis

Unterstützen Sie meinen Researchblog, indem Sie in den von mir beratenen globalen Small-Cap-Investmentfonds (siehe FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals R – DE000A2P37T6 – A2P37T) investieren und/oder ihn empfehlen. Der Fonds konzentriert sich auf die UN-Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung (aktuell durchschnittlich außerordentlich hohe 97% SDG-vereinbare Umsätze der Portfoliounternehmen: Investment impact) und verwendet separate E-, S- und G-Best-in-Universe-Mindestratings sowie Aktionärsengagement (Investor impact) bei derzeit 29 von 30 Unternehmen (siehe auch My fund).

Capital-weighted Asset Allocation by Soehnholz EG GmbH

Capital-weighted Asset Allocation: Researchpost 191

Capital-weighted Asset Allocation: 9x new research on ESG disclosure profits, ESG credit risks, environmental versus social scores, developing country ESG, capital weighted asset allocation, asset allocation glidepaths,  social media mania, robo advisor tuning, and venture biases (#shows the number of SSRN full paper downloads as of August 29th, 2024)

ESG investment research

“Good bank” ESG risks: ESG Relevance in Credit Risk of Development Banks by Jan Porenta and Vasja Rant as of August 21st, 2024 (#12): “… multilateral development banks exhibit elevated ESG risk relevance, primarily stemming from S risk and G risk. The mandate-oriented engagement of multilateral development banks in financing regions and countries marked by challenges such as deficient labor practices, human rights violations, inadequate supply chain oversight, and occasional insolvency issues may accentuate the relevance of social risk. Additionally, risks associated with the rule of law, institutional robustness, regulatory quality, and internal governance challenges could contribute to the heightened governance risk for multilateral development banks“ (p. 24). My comment: Instead of Government bond ETFs I use ETFs for multilateral development bank bonds since several years because they are much better SDG-aligned. Credit and other risks of these bonds have been satisfactory, so far.

Ecological or social? Return trade-offs between environmental and social pillars of ESG scores by  Leyla Yusifzada, Igor Loncarski, Gergely Czupy and Helena Naffa as of Aug. 21st, 2024 (#17): “We analyse the trade-offs between the environmental (E) and social (S) pillars of ESG scores and their implications for equity market performance using data from the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) over the period from 2013 to 2022. We find a persistent negative correlation between the E and S scores across most industries. For example, the correlation between E and S scores for the overall sample reached as low as -0.56 in 2018, indicating a significant inverse relationship where firms that excel in environmental performance often lag in social performance and vice versa“ (p. 9). My comment: Since 2016, I require high minimum standards for E, S and G scores at the same time to avoid too negative tradeoffs and I have been happy with the resulting ESG and financial performances

ESG disclosure profits: The Role of Catering Incentives in ESG Disclosure by King Fuei Lee from Schroder Investment Management as of June 12th, 2024 (#16): “… The study examines 2,207 US-listed firms from 2005-2022, and finds a significant positive relationship between the ESG disclosure premium and firm ESG reporting. Managers respond to prevailing investor demand for ESG data by disclosing more when investors place a stock price premium on companies with high disclosure levels …” (abstract).

Developing ESG deficits: Are Developing Country Firms Facing a Downward Bias in ESG Scores? by Jairaj Gupta, R. Shruti, and Xia Li as of Aug. 26th, 2024 (#31): “Using panel regression analysis on a comprehensive cross-country sample of 7,904 listed firms from 2002 to 2022 across 50 countries, we find that corporate ESG scores in developing economies are significantly lower – 57% lower for raw ESG scores and 23% lower for standardized ESG scores – than those in developed economies. Further analysis indicates that this disparity is linked to institutional bias and measurement issues within ESG scoring firms, stemming from information asymmetry. Our empirical evidence also suggests that ESG scoring firms can mitigate these information problems by incorporating analyst coverage and experience into their algorithms” (abstract). My comment: Companies in all (including developing) countries can and should provide high (ESG) transparency and then will receive appropriate ratings and ESG investments without such artificial rating adjustments

Other investment research (in: Capital-weighted Asset Allocation)

Capital-weighted Asset Allocation: The Risk and Reward of Investing by Ronald Doeswijk and Laurens Swinkels as of Aug. 28th,2024 (#283): “This is the first study documenting the historical risks and rewards of the aggregate investor in global financial markets by studying monthly returns. Our sample period runs from January 1970 to December 2022. The breadth of asset classes in this study is unmatched as it basically covers all accessible financial investments of investors across the world. … Despite its diversification across all globally invested assets, the global market portfolio does not have the highest Sharpe ratio compared to the five asset categories over our 53-year sample period. Its Sharpe ratio is only slightly higher than that of equities broad, but lower than that of nongovernment bonds. However, … The stability of the Sharpe ratio over rolling decade samples is substantially greater than that of individual asset categories. In other words, confidence in a positive Sharpe ratio for the global market portfolio over a decade is highest. … If we adjust the average returns by drawdowns instead of volatility, the global market portfolio has the highest reward for risk, and the shortest maximum drawdown period. All of the results above have been measured in U.S. dollars. If we change the measurement currency to one of the nine other major currencies, we observe substantial heterogeneity in the risks and rewards of investing. … Overall, our new monthly data on the global market portfolio suggests that the aggregate investor has experienced considerable wealth losses compared to savers who earn a nominal risk-free interest rate. Such losses are usually recovered within five years, but recovery can take substantially longer“ (p. 20/21). My comment: I use such asset allocations since the start of my own company in 2015. I am still – to my knowledge – the only portfolio provider worldwide using it for all of its allocation portfolios. Overall, my experience is good, see the Das-Soehnholz-ESG-und-SDG-Portfoliobuch.pdf (soehnholzesg.com) and recently Halbjahres-Renditen: Divergierende Nachhaltigkeitsperformances

Slippy asset allocation glidepaths: The Glidepath Confusion by Edward Hoyle from AHL Partners as of March 30th, 2024 (#127): “The importance of glidepath choice can be overstated. If a pension saver held a balanced portfolio throughout working life, and then at retirement they find that their investment returns are in the left tail of outcomes, it is likely that they would be similarly placed had they chosen an alternative glidepath. Our examination of contrarian strategies confirmed their outperformance on average. As to their tail properties, we find that they are relatively favourable in historical simulations, but less favourable in bootstrapped simulations. This may clear up some apparent disagreement between previous studies. This also lends credence to the intuition that it is risky to be heavily invested in stocks over short horizons. However, this does not mean that stocks investments should be small as retirement approaches. Holding a balanced portfolio throughout working life and retirement seems entirely sensible if the plan is to generate retirement income by decumulation. In these situations no glidepath is needed“ (p. 18).

Social media mania? Social Media and Finance by J. Anthony Cookson, William Mullins, and Marina Niessner as of May 9th, 2024 (#591): “Social media has become an integral part of the financial information environment, changing the way financial information is produced, consumed and distributed. This article surveys the financial social media literature, distinguishing between research using social media as a lens to shed light on more general financial behavior and research exploring the effects of social media on financial markets. We also review the social media data landscape“ (abstract).

Robo-advisor tuning: In Design and Humans we Trust“? – Drivers of Trust and Advice Discounting for Robo Advice by Claudia Breuer, Wolfgang Breuer, and Thomas Renerken as of April 16th, 2024 (#38): “We compare the acceptance of advice in the context of robo-advised individual portfolio allocation decisions with respect to the impact of certain layout and questionnaire characteristics as well as the involvement of a human. Our data are based on incentivized experiments. The results show that a more emotional design of the advice software leads to a higher level of advice acceptance, whereas a detailed exploration questionnaire reduces the level of acceptance. The presence of a human influences trust levels significantly positive, but leads to a lower acceptance of advice in total“  (abstract).

Venture biases: Biases influencing venture capitalists’ decision-making: A systematic literature review by Moritz Sachs and Matthias Unbescheiden as of May 9th,2023 (#44): “In recent years, researchers have demonstrated that venture capitalists are subject to various biases in their decision-making, but a systematic overview was absent. Our literature review revealed that 15 different biases can influence venture capitalist’s investments. For each of these biases, their effect on venture capitalists’ decisionmaking is explained. We contribute to the research on biased start-up investing by detailing the biases and their expected effects on venture capitalists. Our results will be useful for venture capitalists improving their decision-making” (abstract).

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Werbehinweis (in: Capital-weighted Asset Allocation)

Unterstützen Sie meinen Researchblog, indem Sie in meinen globalen Smallcap-Investmentfonds (SFDR Art. 9, siehe FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals R – DE000A2P37T6 – A2P37T) investieren und/oder ihn empfehlen. Der Fonds konzentriert sich auf die UN-Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung (SDG: Investment impact) und verwendet separate E-, S- und G-Best-in-Universe-Mindestratings sowie Aktionärsengagement (Investor impact) bei derzeit 29 von 30 Unternehmen: Vgl. My fund.

Model portfolio illustration from Pixabay by Tumisu

Model portfolios: Researchpost 190

Model portfolios: 7x new research on clean transparency, ESG demand effects, green lending benefits, attractive green investments, rule-based model portfolios, small cap investing and selfish savings (#shows SSRN full paper downloads as of August 22nd, 2024)

Social and ecological research

Cleaning segment transparency: Does Segment Disclosure Constrain Corporate Pollution? by Chenxing Jing, Bin Xu , and Luo Zuo as of May 7th, 2024 (#134): “Segment information matters for the external monitoring of corporate environmental performance because the information about a firm’s operating segment(s) highlights the underlying environmental issues and exposes the firm to increased environmental scrutiny. … we empirically test the effect of the mandatory disclosure of pollutive segments on firm toxic pollution. We find that the newly disclosed information about pollutive segments decreases the amount of toxic pollution released by firm plants, consistent with the idea that more transparent corporate segment disclosure improves the monitoring of corporate environmental performance. … Further analysis reveals that firms reduce pollution by enhancing their pollution prevention practices and green innovation …“ (p. 29). My comment: Segment disclosure is also important to determine revenue and/or capex alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals, see e.g. Impactfonds im Nachhaltigkeitsvergleich

Sustainable investment research (in: Model portfolios)

Demand driven ESG returns? ESG Risk and Returns Implied by Demand-Based Asset Pricing Models by Chi Zhang, Xinyang Li, Andrea Tamoni, Misha van Beek, and Andrew Ang as of Dec. 20th, 2023 (#291): “We investigate the effect of changing investor demand for ESG characteristics on stock returns. We consider the effect of three types of shifts: increases in the preferences for ESG by investors, shifts in assets under management (AUM) from institutions caring less about ESG to those caring more about ESG, and changes in the ESG characteristics of the stocks themselves. … We find increases in preferences for ESG may result in increases in downside risk for the stocks with low ESG scores as these stocks may exhibit decreases in stock returns. … Additionally, our analysis shows that if the trend in increasing ESG preferences continues, there may be higher returns from stocks with higher ESG scores as increasing demand drives up the prices for these types of stocks“ (p. 11). My comment: I expect significant demand shifts towards ESG and SDG investments in the future

Green credit advantage: Climate risk, bank lending and monetary policy by Carlo Altavilla, Miguel Boucinha, Marco Pagano, and Andrea Polo from the European Central Bank as of Nov. 3rd, 2023 (#447): “We find that euro-area banks charge higher interest rates to firms with larger carbon emissions, and lower rates to firms that commit to green transition, even after controlling for firms’ credit risk as measured by their probability of default. … banks … that signed a commitment letter within the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) indeed provide cheaper loans to firms that commit to decarbonization and, to a smaller extent, penalize more polluting firms. … While restrictive monetary policy increases the cost of credit and reduces lending to all firms, its contractionary effect is milder for firms with low emissions and those that commit to decarbonization“ (p. 9). My comment: Brown investors claim that they expect higher equity returns than green investors because they accept higher (environmental) risks. But they should also consider higher credit and ESG-improvement costs.

Green investment potential: Fast die Hälfte der Privathaushalte ist offen für grüne Finanzanlagen – Transparenz über Klimawirkung ist entscheidend von Daniel Römer und Johannes Salzgeber von KFW vom 13. August 2024: „Die vorliegende Analyse … zeigt, dass etwa die Hälfte der Haushalte in Deutschland (44 %) offen für grüne Geldanlagen ist und diese zum Teil (14 %) auch schon selbst nutzt. Die Befragungsdaten zeigen weiterhin, dass diese Haushalte auch mehrheitlich bereit sind, für das Klima auf Kapitalrendite zu verzichten. Wichtig ist hierbei jedoch eine glaubhafte Klimawirkung der Anlage“. Mein Kommentar: Die Geldanlagebranche hat diesbezüglich noch viel Aufklärungsbedarf und Nachholpotenzial

Other investment research

Rule model portfolios: The Power of Rules: Model Portfolios and Wealth Management by Yuliya Plyakha Ferenc, Laszlo Hollo, Joseph Wickremasinghe, and Raina Oberoi from MSCI Research as of August 14th, 2024: “… both methods for making tactical-allocation decisions in model portfolios — traditional and rules-based — produced similar performance and AI exposures. The primary difference between the two is that the rules-based approach would be more likely to meet the five challenges of model-portfolio management with a greater degree of transparency and efficiency. The importance of addressing these challenges is growing with the heightened demand for customization by wealth-management clients. According to Morningstar, between June 2022 and June 2023, inflows to model portfolios increased by 48%, 10 and the demand for personalization is spreading across all segments of the wealth market. In response, Cerulli found in a recent survey that 60% of asset managers and model-portfolio providers have placed custom model portfolios as the top initiative for their firms. As managers and advisers endeavor to meet their clients’ growing requests for customized solutions, considering rules-based management approaches for model portfolios may offer opportunities that improve on traditional management approaches” (p. 19). My comment: I offer (most responsible) rule based model portfolio since 2015, see Regelbasierte Modellportfolios sind besonders attraktiv | CAPinside

Small dilletantes: Small-Cap and Large-Cap Stocks and the Herding Phenomenon: Insights from a Leading Social Trading Platform (STP) by Cedric Kanschat and Alexander Zureck as of August 13th, 2024 (#12): “.. the daily portfolios from a leading Social Trading Platform (STP) were scrutinised over the period from 01/01/2021 to 03/06/2023. … A total of 7,672 portfolios and 8,679 distinct stocks were examined … The results show that the herding behaviour of social traders in small-cap and large-cap stocks lead to contrasting results. Small-cap stocks systematically generate negative returns, while herding behaviour in large-cap stocks leads to positive returns. Social traders apparently manage to make better investment decisions when the quantity and quality of information is better. The volatility of large-cap stocks is only half that of small-cap stocks” (abstract). My comment: Professional small cap stock selection should be able to mitigate most of these effects, see e.g. my small cap portfolio performances

Selfish of altruist savings? Why Do Europeans Save? Micro-Evidence from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey by Charles Yuji Horioka and Luigi Ventura as of Aug. 19th, 2024 (#0, paywall): “… we found that the rank ordering of saving motives differs greatly depending on what criterion is used to rank them. For example, we found that the precautionary motive is the most important saving motive of European households when the proportion of households saving for each motive is used as the criterion to rank them but that the retirement motive is the most important saving motive of European households if the quantitative importance of each motive is taken into account. Moreover, the generosity of social safety nets seems to affect the importance of each saving motive … our finding that the intergenerational transfers motive, which is the saving motive that most exemplifies the altruism model, accounts for only about one-quarter of total household wealth in Europe “ (p. 10/11).

Werbehinweis (in: Model portfolios)

Unterstützen Sie meinen Researchblog, indem Sie in meinen globalen Smallcap-Investmentfonds (SFDR Art. 9, siehe FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals R – DE000A2P37T6 – A2P37T) investieren und/oder ihn empfehlen. Der Fonds konzentriert sich auf die UN-Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung (SDG: Investment impact) und verwendet separate E-, S- und G-Best-in-Universe-Mindestratings sowie Aktionärsengagement (Investor impact) bei derzeit 29 von 30 Unternehmen: Vgl. My fund.

New gender research illustration by Mohamed Hassan from Pixabay

New gender research: Researchpost 176

New gender research illustration by Mohamed Hassan from Pixabay

New gender research: 16x new research on child labor, child bonus, climate models, green bonds, social returns, supply chain ESG, greenwashing, ESG bonifications, gender index, gender inheritance gap, inflation, investment risks and investment AI (# shows SSRN full paper downloads as of May 16th, 2024)

Social and ecological research in: New gender research

US child labor: (Hidden) In Plain Sight: Migrant Child Labor and the New Economy of Exploitation by Shefali Milczarek-Desai as of April 18th, 2024 (#164): “Migrant child labor pervades supply chains for America’s most beloved household goods including Cheerios, Cheetos, Lucky Charms, J. Crew, and Fruit of the Loom. Migrant children, some as young as twelve and thirteen, de-bone chicken sold at Whole Foods, bake rolls found at Walmart and Target, and process milk used in Ben & Jerry’s ice-cream. Most work grueling shifts, including overnight and over twelve-hour days, and some, working in extremely hazardous jobs such as roofing and meat processing, have died or suffered serious, permanent injuries. … many … are unaccompanied minors and have no choice but to work. … this paper charts a multifaceted course that might realistically address the predicament of migrant child workers who are precariously perched at the intersection of migration and labor“ (abstract).

New gender research: Is There Really a Child Penalty in the Long Run? New Evidence from IVF Treatments by Petter Lundborg, Erik Plug, and Astrid Würtz Rasmussen as of May 2nd, 2024 (#32): “The child penalty has been singled out as one of the primary drivers behind the gender gap in earnings. In this paper, we challenge this notion by estimating the child penalty in the very long run. For this purpose, we rely on … fertility variation among childless couples in Denmark to identify child penalties for up to 25 years after the birth of the first child. … we find that the first child impacts the earnings of women, not men. While the child penalties are sizable shortly after birth, the same penalty fades out, disappears completely after 10 years, and turns into a child premium after 15 years. … we even find that the birth of the first child leads to a small rise in the lifetime earnings of women” (p. 15/16).

New gender research: What Works in Supporting Women-Led Businesses? by Diego Ubfal as of April 30th, 2024 (#125): “This paper reviews evidence on interventions that can address the constraints faced by growth-oriented, women-led micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (WMSMEs). … First, evidence of modest average treatment effects and treatment effect heterogeneity across various interventions suggests the need for better targeting and segmentation. Second, women-led firms face multiple constraints, and addressing them requires a package of multiple interventions“ (p. 20).

Climate model risks: The Emperor’s New Climate Scenarios – Limitations and assumptions of commonly used climate-change scenarios in financial services by Sandy Trust, Sanjay Joshi, Tim Lenton, and Jack Oliver as of July 4th, 2023: “Many climate-scenario models in financial services are significantly underestimating climate risk. … Real-world impacts of climate change, such as the impact of tipping points (both positive and negative, transition and physical-risk related), sea-level rise and involuntary mass migration, are largely excluded from the damage functions of public reference climate-change economic models. Some models implausibly show the hot-house world to be economically positive, whereas others estimate a 65% GDP loss or a 50–60% downside to existing financial assets if climate change is not mitigated, stating these are likely to be conservative estimates. … Carbon budgets may be smaller than anticipated and risks may develop more quickly. … We may have underestimated how quickly the Earth will warm for a given level of emissions, meaning we need to update our expectations as to how quickly risks will emerge. A faster warming planet will drive more severe, acute physical risks, bring forward chronic physical risks, and increase the likelihood of triggering multiple climate tipping points, which collectively act to further accelerate the rate of climate change and the physical risks faced. … Firms naturally begin with regulatory scenarios, but this may lead to herd mentality and ‘hiding behind’ Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) thinking, rather than developing an appropriate understanding of climate change. Key model limitations, judgements and choice of assumptions are not widely understood, as evidenced by current disclosures from financial institutions” (p. 6).

ESG investment research

Managed greenium: Determinants of the Greenium by Christoph Sperling, Roland Maximilian Happach, Holger Perlwitz, and Dominik Möst as of May 9th, 2024 (#23): “Environmental, social and governance (ESG) bonds can benefit from yield discounts compared to their conventional twins, a phenomenon known as the ‚greenium‘. … we examine five observable characteristics of corporate ESG bonds and their conventional twins for statistical differences in primary market yields and derive two overarching determinants from this” (abstract). “… two overarching determinants affecting the occurrence and magnitude of a greenium become apparent: transparent information disclosure and sustainable corporate management. Companies can actively enhance their greenium in the primary market and reduce debt financing costs by communicating clearly about the intended use of proceeds and aligning with ambitious sustainability goals” (p. 28).

Social return effects: Social Premiums by Hoa Briscoe-Tran, Reem Elabd, Iwan Meier, and Valeri Sokolovski as of April 30th, 2024 (#123): “Our analysis illuminates the impact of the S dimension of ESG on future stock returns. We find that the aggregate S score does not affect stock returns. However, the two main components of the S score exert significant, yet opposite, effects on returns. Specifically, higher human capital scores are associated with higher returns, aligning with previous research and suggesting that markets may not fully price in firms’ human capital. Conversely, higher product safety scores are associated with lower average returns, consistent with the risk-based explanation that firms with safer products exhibit safer cash flows, reduced risk, and therefore, lower expected returns” (p. 26). My comment: If social investments have similar returns as other investments, everything speaks for social investments.

ESG purchasing benefits: A Procurement Advantage in Disruptive Times: New Perspectives on ESG Strategy and Firm Performance by Wenting Li and Yimin Wang as of May 5th, 2024 (#29): “Drawing on the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment, we define a firm’s resilience as its relatively superior financial performance during the pandemic. … The results reveal that increased ESG practices strengthen a firm’s resilience during disruptions: a 1% increase in ESG practice scores leads to a 0.215% increase in firms’ return on assets. We analyze the mechanisms driving this resilience effect and show that improved ESG practices are associated with reduced purchasing costs and higher profitability amid disruptions. … we provide robust evidence that ESG enhances operational congruency with suppliers, which becomes critical in securing a procurement advantage during severe external constraints. Contrary to popular belief, there is little evidence that the ESG improves price premiums during the disruption“ (abstract). My comment: My detailed recommendations for supplier evaluations and supplier engagement see Supplier engagement – Opinion post #211 – Responsible Investment Research Blog (prof-soehnholz.com)

NGOs and Greenwashing: Scrutinizing Corporate Sustainability Claims. Evidence from NGOs’ Greenwashing Allegations and Firms’ Responses by Janja Brendel, Cai Chen, and Thomas Keusch as of April 9th, 2024 (#107): “We find that advocacy NGOs (Sö: Non-Governmental Organizations) increasingly campaign against greenwashing, targeting predominantly large, publicly visible firms in the consumer-facing and oil and gas industries. These campaigns mostly accuse firms of making misleading or false statements in communication outlets such as product labels, advertisements, and public relations campaigns about companies’ impacts on climate change and consumer health. Shareholders and the media react to NGO campaigns, especially when they allege greenwashing of material environmental or social performance dimensions. Finally, firms facing environment-related greenwashing allegations disclose less environmental information in the future, while companies criticized for climate-related greenwashing reduce future greenhouse gas emissions“ (abstract). My comment see Neues Greenwashing-Research | CAPinside

New gender research: Who Cares about Investing Responsibly? Attitudes and Financial Decisions by Alberto Montagnoli and Karl Taylor as of April 30th, 2024 (#25): “Using the UK Financial Lives Survey data … our analysis reveals that, firstly, individual characteristics have little explanatory power in terms of explaining responsible investments, except for: education; gender; age; and financial literacy. Secondly, those individuals who are interested in future responsible investments are approximately 7 percentage points more likely to hold shares/ equity, and have around 77% more money invested in financial assets (i.e. just under twice the amount)“ (abstract).

New gender research: Index Inclusion and Corporate Social Performance: Evidence from the MSCI Empowering Women Index by Vikas Mehrotra, Lukas Roth, Yusuke Tsujimoto, and Yupana Wiwattanakantang as of May 14th, 2024 (#48): “… we focus on the years surrounding the introduction of the MSCI Empowering Women Index (WIN), in which membership is based on a firm’s gender diversity performance in the workforce. … firms ranked close to the index inclusion threshold enhance their proportion of women in the workforce following the WIN inception compared to control firms that are distant from the inclusion threshold. Notably, these improvements are not accompanied by a reduction in male employees, … we observe that the enhancement of women’s representation in the workforce predominantly occurs in management positions, rather than at the rank-and-file positions, which remain largely unchanged. Additionally, there is evidence of a cultural shift within these firms, as indicated by a reduction in overtime and a higher incidence of male employees taking parental leaves in the post-WIN period. Moreover, WIN firms experience an increase in institutional ownership without any discernible decline in firm performance or shareholder value …” (p. 26).

Impact investment research

ESG bonus leeway: ESG & Executive Remuneration in Europe by Marco Dell’Erba and Guido Ferrarini as of May 6th, 2024 (#160): “… a qualitative and empirical analysis of the ways in which the major 300 largest corporations by market capitalization in Europe (from the FTSEurofirst 300 Index) implement ESG factors in their remuneration policies. … Few metrics are clearly measurable, and there is a general lack of appropriate metrics and targets” (p. 36/37). My comment see Wrong ESG bonus math? Content-Post #188 – Responsible Investment Research Blog (prof-soehnholz.com)

Bank net zero failure: Business as Usual: Bank Net Zero Commitments, Lending, and Engagement by Parinitha (Pari) Sastry, Emil Verner, and David Marques-Ibanez as of April 23rd, 2024 (#876): “This paper is the first attempt to quantify whether banks with a net zero pledge have made meaningful changes to their lending behavior. … we find that net zero lenders have not divested from emissions-intensive firms, in mining or in the sectors for which they have set targets. This holds both for borrowing firms in the eurozone, as well as across the globe. We also find limited evidence that banks reallocate financing towards low-carbon renewables projects within the power generation sector, casting doubt on within-sector portfolio reallocation. Further, we do not find evidence for engagement. Firms connected to a net zero bank are no more likely to set decarbonization targets, nor do they reduce their carbon emissions“ (p. 35).

Other investment research: in New gender research

New gender research: Wealth creators or inheritors? Unpacking the gender wealth gap from bottom to top and young to old by Charlotte Bartels, Eva Sierminska, and Carsten Schroeder as of Apri 28th, 2024 (#157): Using unique individual level data that oversamples wealthy individuals in Germany in 2019, we find that women and men accumulate wealth differently. Transfer amounts and their timing are an important driver of these differences: men tend to inherit larger sums than women during their working life, which allows them to create more wealth. Women often outlive their male partners and receive larger inheritances in old age. Yet, these transfers come too late in order for them to be used for further accumulation and to start a business. Against this backdrop, the average gender wealth gap underestimates the inequality of opportunity that men and women have during the active, wealth-creating phase of the life course” (p. 7).

Inflation ignorants: Don’t Ignore Inflation Ignorance: An Experimental Analysis of the Degree of Money Illusion in Individual Decision Making by Nicole Branger´, Henning Cordes, and Thomas Langer as of Dec. 30th, 2024 (#18): “Money illusion refers to the tendency to evaluate economic transactions in nominal rather than real terms. One manifestation of this phenomenon is the tendency to neglect future inflation in intertemporal investment decisions. Empirical evidence for this “inflation ignorance” is hard to establish due to the host of factors that simultaneously change with the inflation rate. … We find money illusion to be substantial – even in experimental settings where the bias cannot be driven by a lack of diligence, arithmetic problems, or misunderstandings of inflation. Our findings contribute to understanding various anomalies on the individual and market level, such as insufficient savings efforts or equity mispricing“ (abstract).

Active risk: Sharpe’s Arithmetic and the Risk Matters Hypothesis by James White, Vladimir Ragulin, and Victor Haghani from Elm Wealth as of Dec. 20th, 2023 (#140): “… the authors present … the „Risk Matters Hypothesis“ (RMH), which asserts that the average risk-adjusted excess return across all active portfolios will be greater than the risk-adjusted excess return of the market portfolio, before accounting for fees and trading costs” (abstract).

AI for the big guys only? A Walk Through Generative AI & LLMs: Prospects and Challenges by Carlos Salas Najera as of Dec. 20th, 2023 (#68): “Generative AI has firmly established its presence, and is poised to revolutionise various sectors such as finance. Large Language Models (LLMs) are proving pivotal in this transformation according to their recent impressive performances. However, their widespread integration into industries might only lead to gradual progress. The investment sector faces challenges of inadequate expertise and notably, the substantial costs associated with inhouse model training. Consequently, investment enterprises will confront the choice of leveraging foundational models, customisable variants, or insights from NLP vendors who remain well-versed in the latest advancements of LLMs” (p. 9). My comment: See How can sustainable investors benefit from artificial intelligence? – GITEX Impact

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Werbehinweis

Unterstützen Sie meinen Researchblog, indem Sie in meinen globalen Small-Cap-Anlagefonds (SFDR Art. 9) investieren und/oder ihn empfehlen. Der Fonds konzentriert sich auf die Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung (SDG) und verwendet separate E-, S- und G-Best-in-Universe-Mindestratings sowie ein breites Aktionärsengagement bei derzeit 26 von 30 Unternehmen: FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals R – DE000A2P37T6 – A2P37T und My fund – Responsible Investment Research Blog (prof-soehnholz.com)

Biodiversity risk illustration with Marine Life picture fom Pixabay

Biodiversity risk: Researchpost #153

Biodiversity risk: 10x new (critical) research on ESG ETF and net-zero, sustainability-linked bonds, lifecycle and thematic investments, altruism and stablecoins

Biodiversity risk research

Broad biodiversity risk: Living in a world of disappearing nature: physical risk and the implications for financial stability by Simone Boldrini, Andrej Ceglar, Chiara Lelli, Laura Parisi, and Irene Heemskerk from the European Central Bank as of Nov. 14th, 2023 (#23): “Of the 4.2 million euro area NFCs (Sö: Non-financial corporations) that were included in our research, around 3 million are highly dependent on at least one ecosystem service. … approximately 75% of euro area banks’ corporate loans to NFCs (nearly €3.24 trillion) are highly dependent on at least one ecosystem service. … we have enough data and knowledge available to enable timely and nature-friendly decision-making” (p. 38).

Biodiversity risk reduction? How could the financial sector contribute to limiting biodiversity loss? A systematic review by Lisa Junge, Yu-Shan Lin Feuer, and Remmer Sassen as of Feb. 7th, 2023 (#109) “the currently available scientific discourse is also not unanimous about the status of biodiversity in finance. Therefore, this paper aims to synthesise existing publications to gain transparency about the topic, conducting a systematic review. Three main concepts emerge about how the private finance sector can aid in halting biodiversity loss, namely: (1) by increasing awareness of biodiversity, (2) by seizing biodiversity-related business opportunities, and (3) by enlarging biodiversity visibility through reporting. Overall, we assume that the private finance sector upholds a great leverage power in becoming a co-agent of positive biodiversity change”(abstract).

Responsible investment research (Biodiversity risk)

Blackrock-problem? Fossil-washing? The fossil fuel investment of ESG funds by Alain Naef from Banque de France as of Nov. 16th, 2023 (#19): “… I analysed all the large equity Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) labelled as ESG available at the two largest investors in the world: Blackrock and Vanguard. For Blackrock, out of 82 funds analysed, only 9% did not invest in fossil fuel companies. Blackrock ESG funds include investments in Saudi Aramco, Gazprom or Shell. But they exclude ExxonMobil or BP. This suggests a best-in-class approach by the fund manager, picking only certain fossil fuel companies that they see as generating less harm. But it is unclear what the criteria used are. For Vanguard, funds listed as ESG did not contain fossil fuel investment. Yet this needs to be nuanced as information provided by Vanguard on investments is less transparent and Vanguard offers fewer ESG funds” (abstract). My comment: For my ESG and SDG ETF-selection I use demanding responsibility criteria and more so for my direct equity portfolios, see the newly updated Das-Soehnholz-ESG-und-SDG-Portfoliobuch.pdf (soehnholzesg.com)

Listed equity climate deficits: The MSCI Net-Zero Tracker November 2023 – A guide to progress by listed companies toward global climate goals from the MSCI Sustainability Institute as of November 2023: “Listed companies are likely to put 12.4 gigatons (Gt) of GHG emissions into the atmosphere this year, up 11% from 2022. … global emissions are on track reach 60.6 Gt this year, up 0.3% from 2022. … Domestic emissions in eight emerging-market G20 countries examined rose by an average of 1.2% per year over the period, while emissions of listed companies in those markets climbed 3.2% annually. … Just over (22%) of listed companies align with a 1.5°C pathway, as of Aug. 31, 2023 … Listed companies are on a path to warm the planet 2.5°C above preindustrial levels this century … More than one-third (34%) of listed companies have set a climate target that aspires to reach net-zero, up from 23% two years earlier. Nearly one-fifth (19%) of listed companies have published a science-based net-zero target that covers all financially relevant Scope 3 emissions, up from 6% over the same period” (page 6/7).

ESG or cash flow? Does Sustainable Investing Make Stocks Less Sensitive to Information about Cash Flows? by Steffen Hitzemann, An Qin, Stanislav Sokolinski, and Andrea Tamoni as of Oct. 30th, 2023 (#56): “Traditional finance theory asserts that stock prices depend on expected future cash flows. … Using the setting of earnings announcements, we find that sustainable investing diminishes stock price sensitivity to earnings news by 45%-58%. This decline in announcement-day returns is mirrored by a comparable drop in trading volume. This effect persists beyond the immediate announcement period, implying a lasting alteration in price formation rather than a short-lived mispricing“ (abstract).

Similar calls: SLBs: no cal(l)amity by Kamesh Korangi and Ulf Erlandsson as of Nov. 16th, 2023 (#13): A common criticism of sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs) has been around callability, where it is sometimes suggested that bond issuers are pushing this feature into bond structures to wriggle out of sustainability commitments. … Our analysis finds scant quantitative evidence to support this critique. Overall, when comparing SLBs with similar non-SLB issuances, we observe little ‘excess’ callability in SLBs. The key to this result is to control for sectors, ratings and issue age when comparing SLBs with the much larger market of traditional bonds” (p. 1).

Other investment research

100% Equity! Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice by Aizhan Anarkulova, Scott Cederburg and Michael S. O’Doherty as of Nov.1st, 2023 (#950): “We challenge two central tenets of lifecycle investing: (i) investors should diversify across stocks and bonds and (ii) the young should hold more stocks than the old. An even mix of 50% domestic stocks and 50% international stocks held throughout one’s lifetime vastly outperforms age-based, stock-bond strategies in building wealth, supporting retirement consumption, preserving capital, and generating bequests. These findings are based on a lifecycle model that features dynamic processes for labor earnings, Social Security benefits, and mortality and captures the salient time-series and cross-sectional properties of long-horizon asset class returns” (abstract).

Lemming investors? The Big Shortfall? Thematic investors lose lion’s share of returns due to poor timing by Kenneth Lamont and Matias Möttölä from Morningstar as of Nov. 15th, 2023 : “While thematic funds‘ average total return was 7.3% annualized over the five-year period through June 30, 2023, investors earned only a 2.4% return when the impact of cash inflows and outflows is considered. … Investors lost more value in focused funds such as those tracking Technology or Physical World broad themes compared with more diversified Broad Thematic peers. Return gaps were far wider in exchange-traded funds than in thematic mutual funds. ETFs tend to offer more concentrated bets and lend themselves to tactical usage. The largest return shortfalls occur across highly targeted funds, which posted eye-catching performance, attracting large net inflows before suffering a change of fortune“ (p. 1). My comment: My approach to thematic investments see e.g. Alternatives: Thematic replace alternative investments (prof-soehnholz.com)

Risk-loving altruists? Can Altruism Lead to a Willingness to Take Risks? by Oded Shark as of Mov. 7th, 2023 (#7): “I show that an altruistic person who is an active donor (benefactor) is less risk averse than a comparable person who is not altruistic: altruism is a cause of greater willingness to take risks” (abstract). … “The lower risk aversion of an altruistic person … might encourage him to pursue risky ventures which could contribute to economic growth and social welfare” (p. 7).

Unstable coins? Runs and Flights to Safety: Are Stablecoins the New Money Market Funds? by Kenechukwu Anadu et al. from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston as of Oct. 9th, 2023 (#743): “… flight-to-safety dynamics in money market funds have been extensively documented in the literature—with money flowing from the riskier prime segment of the industry to the safer government segment … flight-to-safety dynamics in stablecoins resemble those in the MMF industry. During periods of stress in crypto markets, safer stablecoins experience net inflows, while riskier ones suffer net outflows. … we estimate that when a stablecoin’s price hits a threshold of 99 cents (that is, a price drop of 100 basis points relative to its $1 peg), investor redemptions accelerate significantly, in a way that is reminiscent of MMFs’ “breaking the buck … Should stablecoins continue to grow and become more interconnected with key financial markets, such as short-term funding markets, they could become a source of financial instability for the broader financial system” (p. 33).

Liquid impact advert for German investors

Sponsor my research by investing in and/or recommending my global small/midcap mutual fund (SFDR Art. 9). The fund focuses on social SDGs and uses separate E, S and G best-in-universe minimum ratings and broad shareholder engagement with currently 23 of 30 companies: FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals R – DE000A2P37T6 – A2P37T or Noch eine Fondsboutique? – Responsible Investment Research Blog (prof-soehnholz.com)

SDG rating confusion illustration with picture from GoranH from pixabay

SDG rating confusion: Researchpost #152

SDG rating confusion: 13x new research on emissions, life expectancy, green bonds, physical risks and transition, environmental information, private equity ESG, SDG ratings, bond and equity factors, fraud, health-wealth relations, LLM financial analysts (# shows the number of full paper SSRN downloads as of Nov. 16th, 2023)

Ecological and social research (SDG rating confusion)

Too hot: The State of Climate Action: Major Course Correction Needed from +1.5% to −7% Annual Emissions by the World Economic Forum and The Boston Consulting Group as of November 2023: “As 1.5°C is slipping out of reach, achieving it now calls for a 7% annual emissions reduction, more than the climate reduction impact from COVID-19 and against the current trend of a 1.5% annual increase. … Only 35% of emissions are covered by a national net-zero commitment by 2050, and only 7% by countries that complement bold targets with ambitious policies. Fewer than 20% of the world’s top 1,000 companies have set 1.5°C science-based targets, and, based on the Net Zero Tracker, fewer than 10% also have comprehensive public transition plans. Technologies that are economically attractive now or will be in the near future can only achieve just over half of the emissions reductions needed to reach 1.5°C. … More than half of climate funding needs are still unmet, with critical gaps in early technologies and infrastructure particularly acute, and the climate funding gap twice as large in developing economies as in developed ones” (p. 4).

Longer lifes: The Long-run Effect of Air Pollution on Survival by Tatyana Deryugina and Julian Reif as of Nov. 13th, 2023 (#8): “We show that the short-run mortality effects of acute SO2 exposure can be decomposed into two distinct phenomena: mortality displacement, where exposure kills frail individuals with short counterfactual life expectancies, and accelerated aging, where mortality continues to increase after exposure has ceased. … we calculate that a permanent, ten percent decrease in air pollution exposure would improve life expectancy by 1.2–1.3 years … our estimates imply that value of reducing pollution exposure may be substantially larger than has previously been recognized“ (p. 37).

Responsible investing research (SDG rating confusion)

Green bond limits: Decoding Corporate Green Bonds: What Issuers Do With the Money and Their Real Impact by Yufeng Mao as of Nov. 8th, 2023 (#157): “This paper reveals a distinct motivation for issuing green bonds compared to conventional bonds. Proceeds from green bonds remain as cash for longer periods, largely owing to the time required to identify eligible projects. Contrary to the notion of fungibility, my results indicate that they neither lead to more new investments than conventional bonds nor are used in apparent green-washing. … firms issuing green bonds show improved environmental performance, particularly in the reduction of GHG intensity. However, this improvement appears not to stem from incremental green investments facilitated by green bonds but rather from issuers that would have pursued green initiatives regardless” (p. 44).

Physical risk costs: The cost of maladapted capital: Stock returns, physical climate risk and adaptation by Chiara Colesanti Senni and Skand Goel as of July 23rd, 2023 (#48): “Using S&P Global Sustainable data on Physical Risk and measures of adaptability to physical risk from S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment, we find evidence that higher physical risk is associated with higher expected returns. However, this risk premium diminishes with increased adaptability, signifying that risk management through adaptation reduces a company’s cost of capital. Notably, this adaptability-driven risk discount is more pronounced for high levels of physical risk, reflecting market incentives for efficient adaptation” (abstract).

Carbon-free distance: Carbon-Transition Risk and Net-Zero Portfolios by Gino Cenedese, Shangqi Han, and Marcin Kacperczyk as of Oct. 5th, 2023 (#493): “…. using a novel measure of distance-to-exit (DT E) … we show that companies that are more exposed to exit from net-zero portfolios have lower values and require higher returns from investors holding them. This result is economically large and is consistent with the view that DT E are useful measures of transition risk. Notably, we show that DT E capture distinct variation to that captured by previously used measures based on corporate carbon emissions. Distinct from these, they capture information that is forward-looking and is grounded in climate science“ (p. 29)

Attention, outsiders: Do Insiders Profit from Public Environmental Information? Evidence from Insider Trading by Sadok El Ghoul, Zhengwei Fu, Omrane Guedhami, and Yongwon Kim as of Oct. 19th, 2023 (#26): “We provide evidence that insiders sell their stocks profitably based on publicly available information on environmental costs. Further analysis indicates that these results become more pronounced when the search frequency for environmental information in Google is low, in countries governed by left-leaning governments, and in countries where investor protection is weak. These results … suggest that investor inattention and investor protection are key drivers of insider trading performance“ (abstract).

PE ESG boost: ESG Footprints in Private Equity Portfolios: Unpacking Management Instruments and Financial Performance by Noah Bani-Harounia, Ulrich Hommel, and Falko Paetzold as of Nr. 8th, 2023 (#13): “Based on data covering 206 buyout funds for the time period 2010-2022, … Improving fund-level ESG footprints by 50% explains a statistically and economically significant net IRR increase of up to 12.4% over a fund’s life cycle. The outcome is linked to specific ESG-management instruments of private equity investors, such as centralised ESG management and ESG value enhancement plans, while no significant effect is recorded for other measures, such as ESG reporting frequencies and ESG impact controlling” (abstract).

SDG rating confusion: “In partnership for the goals”? The (dis)agreement of SDG ratings by Tobias Bauckloh, Juris Dobrick, André Höck, Sebastian Utz, and Marcus Wagner as of May 31st, 2023 (#59): „This paper analyzes the (dis)agreement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) ratings across different rating providers and implications for portfolio management. It documents a considerable level of disagreement that is particularly high for large companies and for companies from the Healthcare and the Basic Materials sector. In general, the sector in which the companies are mainly active explains a large part of the variation in disagreement measures of the SDG ratings. Moreover, we document different return characteristics and risk factor exposures of portfolios sorted according to SDG ratings of different rating providers” (abstract). My comment: I expect SDG-Risk-Ratings to have little additional value to ESG-Ratings. I prefer to use SDG-related revenues or Capex in addition to ESG-Ratings to avoid SDG rating confusion (see e.g. Divestments: 49 bei 30 Aktien meines Artikel 9 Fonds – Responsible Investment Research Blog (prof-soehnholz.com)).

Other investment research

Equity factors: Factor Zoo (.zip) by Alexander Swade, Matthias X. Hanauer, Harald Lohre and David Blitz from Robeco as of Nov. 15th, 2023 (#2546): “Using a comprehensive set of 153 U.S. equity factors, we find that a set of 10 to 20 factors spans the entire factor zoo, depending on the selected statistical significance level. This implies that most candidate factors are redundant but also that academic factor models, which typically contain just three to six factors, are too narrowly defined. When repeating the factor selection to factors as they become available over an expanding window, we find that newly published factors sometimes supersede older factor definitions, emphasizing the relevance of continuous factor innovation based on new insights or newly available data. However, the identified factor style clusters are quite persistent, emphasizing the relevance of diversification across factor styles” (p. 20/21). My comment: Without good (almost impossible) forecasts which factors will outperform, outperforming factor investing is difficult.

Bond factors: Corporate Bond Factors: Replication Failures and a New Framework by Jens Dick-Nielsen, Peter Feldhütter, Lasse Heje Pedersen, and Christian Stolborg as of Oct. 26th, 2023 (#1257): “Many corporate bond factors cannot be reproduced even when attempting to use the methodology of the corresponding paper. More broadly, even factors that can be reproduced should be questioned, since the corporate bond literature is based on data full of errors. … we show that the majority of corporate bond factors from the literature fail to replicate, but a minority of factors remain significant. Further, analyzing corporate bond factors based on equity signals, we find a number of significant new factors“ (p. 27/28). My comment: Same as above: Without good (almost impossible) forecasts which factors will outperform, outperforming factor investing is difficult.

Big fraud? How pervasive is corporate fraud? by Alexander Dyck, Adair Morse, and Luigi Zingales as of Oct. 2nd, 2023 (#120): “… we use the natural experiment provided by the sudden demise of a major auditing firm, Arthur Andersen, to infer the fraction of corporate fraud that goes undetected. This detection likelihood is essential to quantify the pervasiveness of corporate fraud in the United States and to assess the costs that this fraud imposes on investors. We find that two out of three corporate frauds go undetected, implying that, pre Sox, 41% of large public firms were misreporting their financial accounts in a material way and 10% of the firms were committing securities fraud, imposing an annual cost of $254 billion on investors“ (p. 31). My comment: It would be interesting to see the relationship between governance-ratings and fraud.

Health-Wealth-Gap: Health Heterogeneity, Portfolio Choice and Wealth Inequality by Juergen Jung and Chung Tran as of Oct. 18th, 2023 (#28): “… the early exposure to health shocks has strong and long-lasting impacts on the portfolio choice of households and the observed wealth gap among households at retirement age. … as sicker individuals often forgo investing in risky assets that pay higher returns in the long-run. This health-wealth portfolio channel amplifies wealth concentration across groups and over the lifecycle. … In the absence of the health-wealth portfolio channel, the observed wealth gap at retirement is 40–50 percent smaller. In addition, we provide new insights into the social benefit of health insurance. The expansion of public or private health insurance in the US can reduce wealth inequality via mitigating exposure to health expenditure shocks and thereby allow households to make riskier investment choices with higher long-term returns” (p. 27/28).

LLM financial analysts: Large Language Models and Financial Market Sentiment by Shaun A. Bond, Hayden Klok, and Min Zhu as of Oct. 23rd, 2023 (#257): “… we use ChatGPT and BARD to recall daily news summaries related to the S&P 500 Index, classify sentiments from these texts, and use these sentiments to forecast future index returns. … we demonstrate ChatGPT and BARD can recall and classify summary market-level financial text from the perspective of a financial analyst. … we show these sentiments proxy for aggregate investor sentiment and forecast future return reversals of the S&P 500 Index … we provide evidence that incorporating ChatGPT-derived sentiments leads to superior economic performance compared to portfolios that incorporate sentiments from BARD, simpler transformer models, and traditional dictionary approaches. LLMs have superior potential to process contextual information around specific topics or themes beyond that of simpler transformer models and context-indifferent word frequency methods. This greater context awareness leads to better identification of aggregate market sentiment, and superior short-term economic performance when taken into account. Further, results suggest LLMs can identify different aspects of sentiment from text, such as information on different frequencies, and the presence of persistent effects“ (p. 45). My comment see AI: Wie können nachhaltige AnlegerInnen profitieren? – Responsible Investment Research Blog (prof-soehnholz.com) or How can sustainable investors benefit from artificial intelligence? – GITEX Impact – Leading ESG Event 2023

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Liquid impact advert for German investors

Sponsor my research by investing in and/or recommending my global small/midcap mutual fund (SFDR Art. 9). The fund focuses on social SDGs and uses separate E, S and G best-in-universe minimum ratings and broad shareholder engagement with currently 24 of 30 companies: FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals R – DE000A2P37T6 – A2P37T or Noch eine Fondsboutique? – Responsible Investment Research Blog (prof-soehnholz.com)

Impact impact illustration by Geralt from Pixabay

Impact impact? Researchpost #137

Impact impact? 18x new research on pension taxes, food carbon labels, sector investing, brown divestments, biodiversity, ESG fund flows, governance washing, impact investing, stewardship, shareholder engagement, divestments, social bonds, article 9 funds and asset allocation (# of SSRN downloads on August 3rd, 2023) by Marco Becht, Tobias Berg, Timo Busch, Thierry Roncalli, Laurens Swinkels and many more

Social and ecological research

Pension taxes: Does a Decrease in Pension Taxes Increase Retirement Savings? An Experimental Analysis by Kay Blaufus, Michael Milde, and Alexandra Spaeth as of June 12th, 2023 (#34): “Many countries use tax incentives to promote retirement savings. … Using a series of experiments, we demonstrate that decreasing pension tax rates does not encourage retirement savings. … In contrast, an increase in the tax refund rate, i.e., the rate at which individuals can deduct their retirement savings, increases savings. … all subjects were fully informed about the tax rules and passed comprehension tests on these rules. Nevertheless, we observe significant misperceptions regarding taxes on pension income. … an instrument that increases current tax benefits is more effective than one that decreases future tax burdens even if both instruments are economically equivalent. … we show that substituting deferred taxation with economically equivalent immediate taxation increases the (effective) savings rate by 7.2 percentage points without changing tax revenue” (p. 28/29).

Food carbon labels: Should Carbon Footprint Labeling be Mandatory for all Food Products? RCT Shows no Benefit beyond Labeling the Top Third by Pierre Chandon, Jad Chaaban, and Shemal Doshi as of June 12th, 2023 (#26): “Carbon footprint labels have been shown to lead consumers to choose food products with lower CO2 emissions … We asked 1,081 American consumers to shop in an experimental online grocery store and choose one frozen meal among the full assortment of a major American grocer … A 16.5% reduction in emissions was achieved by labeling the top third of products, with no statistically significant improvement gained by further increasing the proportion of labeled products” (abstract).

ESG and internal control: Corporate Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Performance and the Internal Control Environment by Jacquelyn Sue Moffitt, Jeanne-Claire Alyse Patin, and Luke Watson as of June 15th, 2023 (#59): “We find that ESG performance is negatively related to the likelihood of general internal control weaknesses, consistent with transparent reporting. We also find that ESG performance is negatively related to company-level internal control weaknesses, which are considered relatively severe. Further, we find that ESG performance is negatively associated with specific internal control weaknesses that indicate a lack of ethical tone at the top. … Overall, our results suggest that ESG performance is positively associated with the strength of the internal control environment“ (abstract).

ESG investing research: Impact impact?

Environmental sector investing: Environmental Preferences and Sector Valuations by Tristan Jourde and Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon as of July 7th, 2023 (#75): “… we explore the dynamic nature of pro-environmental preferences among investors through the lens of sector valuations in global equity markets from 2018 to 2021. … we find that firms’ green and brown sector affiliations are significantly priced in the global equity market, positively for green sectors and negatively for brown sectors. Furthermore, companies operating in green sectors have become increasingly overvalued relative to the rest of the market between 2018 and 2021, and vice versa for those operating in brown sectors … In addition, the turnover rate of both green and brown companies has increased over the last years …“ (p. 19). My comment: An update of the study after the 2022 market development would be interesting.

Brown divestments: Climate risk and strategic asset reallocation by Tobias Berg, Lin Ma, and Daniel Streitz as of Feb. 28th, 2023 (#128): “We document that large emitters, i.e., firms that are part of the Climate Action 100+ scheme, started to reduce their combined Scope 1 and 2 emissions by around 12% in the years after the 2015 Paris Agreement relative to other public firms with positive carbon emission levels. … There is no evidence for increased engagements in other emission reduction activities. … we find that buyers of large asset sales tend to be private, financial, and other firms that do not disclose emissions to the Carbon Disclosure Project. … We provide evidence that is consistent with increased regulatory risk being a main driver of the effects“ (p. 25/26). My comment: I am skeptical regarding Transition investments see ESG Transition Bullshit? – Responsible Investment Research Blog (prof-soehnholz.com)

Biodiversity premium: A closer look at the biodiversity premium by Guillaume Coqueret and Thomas Giroux as of Juy 21st, 2023 (#163): “… while this (Sö: biodiversity) premium is not unconditionally strong, there are dimensions along which it may prove substantial. For instance, air pollution is priced significantly more than land use, even though the latter has a more decisive impact on the environment. Another important subtlety lies in the distinction between realized versus expected returns (from investors). Our results show more pronounced effects on expected returns. … Lastly, like all other premia, the biodiversity factor experiences fluctuating returns. The recent period is associated with largely negative premia, especially for expected returns. Our analysis shows that a few variables are able to explain some time-variations, notably attention to biodiversity and climate, oil prices, and consumer sentiment” (p. 17).

Good ESG capital: ESG Capitals and Corporate Value Creation by Banita Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Scott Bennett, and Angel Zhong as of June 12th, 2023 (#110): “Our paper has documented that investing in ESG capital … can lead to better short-term and long-term shareholder wealth … In the short term, the ESG capital triggers sharp financial return improvement for a firm to improve their ESG capital from a very low point (i.e., a firm that seldom considers ESG activities and culture) to an average ESG performance. Such positive effects are small but still positive if the firm continues to enhance its ESG capital from the middle range towards the top level in the market. We also find that investment in ESG capital can positively and interactively influence other capitals, such as financial, innovation and manufacturing capitals, to improve financial returns. Under a good ESG environment, more holding of the other capitals could lead to more significant financial returns than each capital could achieve individually“ (p. 23/24).

Provider-friendly ESG? Machine-Learning about ESG Preferences: Evidence from Fund Flows by George O. Aragon and Shuaiyu Chen as of July 29th, 2023 (#36): “We first construct a broad dataset of ESG scores for active equity mutual funds based on funds’ stock holdings and stock-level scores from six prominent ESG data providers. We document substantial dispersion in scores across providers, but that many scores nevertheless have predictive power for flows. … Over our 2010–2020 sample period, we find that funds with higher ESG benefits subsequently realize higher flows, lower net returns against the benchmark, lower value-added from net returns, and hold stocks that underperform other stocks. We estimate that investors pay an annual premium of $11 million to invest in a fund with ESG benefits in the top decile. Overall, our findings shed new light on the relevance of ESG scores and the ESG preferences of investors“ (p. 23). My comment: The fund flows should be positive for my pure ESG fund and portfolios, see e.g. Artikel 9 Fonds: Kleine Änderungen mit großen Wirkungen? – (prof-soehnholz.com)

Governance-washing: The G-pillar in ESG: how to separate the wheat from the chaff in comply-or-explain approach? by Daniela Venanzi as of June 26th, 2023 (#24): “This study tries to verify if a gap exists between apparent and real compliance to CG (Sö; Corporate Governance) Code requirements in a sample of Italian listed financial companies (mostly banks), with reference to two areas (independence of board members and transparency) that mostly make decision-making unbiased by conflicts of interests and are therefore crucial for corporate sustainability. We find opacity/obfuscation in CG narrative and avoidance/concealment strategies also in banks considered “CG champions”, more rarely non-compliance clearly declared and appropriately explained” (abstract).

ESG predictions: Are ESG ratings informative to forecast idiosyncratic risk? by Christophe Boucher, Wassim Le Lann, Stéphane Matton, and Sessi Tokpavi as of July 11th, 2023 (#71): “The contribution of this article is to propose a formal statistical procedure for assessing the informational content in ESG ratings. … We apply our procedure to evaluate two leading ESG rating systems (Sustainalytics and Asset4) in three investment universes (Europe, North America, and the Asia-Pacific region). The results show that the null hypothesis of a lack of informational content in ESG ratings is strongly rejected for Europe, while the results are mixed and predictive accuracy gains are lower for the other regions. Furthermore, we find that the predictive accuracy gains are higher for the environmental dimension of the ESG ratings. Importantly, we find that the predictive accuracy gains derived from ESG ratings increase with the level of consensus between rating agencies in all three universes, while they are low for firms over which there is a high level of disagreement“ (p. 31).

Risk-reducing disclosure: ESG Disclosure, CEO Power and Incentives and Corporate Risk-taking by Faek Menla Ali, Yuanyuan Wu, and Xiaoxiang Zhang as of July 25th, 2023 (#19): “… we analyze the impact of ESG disclosure on firm risk-taking within US companies. … the reduction in corporate risk-taking due to ESG disclosure mitigates excessive risk-taking rather than leading to risk avoidance“ (p. 26).

Impact investing research: Impact impact?

Impact impact? Missing the Impact in Impact Investing Research – A Systematic Review and Critical Reflection of the Literature by Deike Schlütter, Lena Schätzlein, Rüdiger Hahn, and Carolin Waldner as of July 6th, 2023: “Impact investing (II) aims to achieve intentional social impact in addition to financial return. … the growing academic literature on II is scattered across a variety of disciplines and topics, with inconsistencies in terminology and concepts and a paucity of theoretical explanations and frameworks. … Despite the fact that II aims to create a measurable societal impact, this impact of II, its raison d’être, is not scrutinized in the literature“ (abstract).

Stewardship overview: Investor Stewardship: The State of the Art and Future Prospects by Dionysia Katelouzou as of June 22nd, 2023 (#46): “Within less than fifteen years fifty-five soft-law stewardship codes have been developed across 23 jurisdictions on six continents and investor stewardship became the standard term of reference for the role of institutional investors in addressing not only corporate governance but also environmental and social issues. … Nevertheless, there is still a continuing lack of clarity or consensus over what regulators and investors deem to be a good investor steward. … Institutional investors acting as stewards are expected to exercise power and influence over their assets, on behalf of others, and for others. … Finally, I look at the future of investor stewardship, focusing specifically on two ongoing trends, that of green stewardship and disintermediated stewardship“ (abstract).

ESG engagement: Does Paying Passive Managers to Engage Improve ESG Performance? by Marco Becht, Julian R. Franks, Hideaki Miyajima and Kazunori Suzuki as of July 26th, 2023 (#283): “… the Japanese Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), the largest public pension fund in the world … gave its largest passive manager a remunerated mandate to improve the environmental (E), social (S) and governance (G) performance of portfolio companies. … engagement by the asset manager has resulted in improvements in some of the ESG scores for mid- and large cap companies; small-cap companies were rarely engaged. … we find evidence that GPIF’s portfolio tilt towards ESG indexes has created financial incentives to improve ESG scores” (abstract).

Career first? Exit or Voice? Divestment, Activism, and Corporate Social Responsibility by Victor Saint-Jean as of June 21st, 2023 (#80): “Using a classification framework based on US mutual funds’ portfolio holdings and votes on S-related shareholder proposals, I show that voice funds generally do better than exit funds when it comes to curtailing firms’ anti-social behavior. The exit strategy relies on the threat of lower stock prices and is effective only at firms with high CEO wealth-performance-sensitivity. Voice funds threaten directors’ reelection, and are thus more effective in general, especially when elections are approaching. Taken together, my results point to the career concerns of the leadership as driving pro-social change when shareholders demand it” (abstract).

No social premium: Green vs. Social Bond Premium by Mohamed Ben and Thierry Roncalli from Amundi as of May 21st, 2023 (#102): “Between 2019 and 2022, the greenium is about −3 bps on average, meaning that, all else being equal, investors are willing to forsake a small share of returns in exchange for environmental benefits. … For the social bond premium, we notice fragmented estimates of the premium in the secondary market. In the long run, the premium is close to zero and equal to −0.3 bps on average. … we notice that the social bond premium is not positively correlated with the greenium. … non-euro projects are subject to a higher premium“ (p. 26/27).

Article 9 segments: SFDR Article 9: Is it all about impact? by Lisa Scheitza and Timo Busch as of July 17th, 2023 (#235): “We investigate more than 1,000 investment funds that are classified under Article 9 of the EU Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR). … while 60% of funds follow an impact-oriented investment strategy, we identify 40% that are not impact-related but rather pursue an Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG) investment strategy. Generally, we do not find significant differences in ESG scores and returns between ESG-related and impact-related funds. Yet, impact-related funds have higher SDG impact scores and higher management fees than ESG-related funds. Downgraded Article 9 funds, i.e., funds that changed SFDR status by January 2023, however, tend to follow less ambitious investment approaches and realize lower returns than funds that maintained their SFDR statuses“ (abstract). “ …. we find no significant differences in risk-adjusted returns between ESG-related investments and impact-related investments among Article 9 funds” (p. 16). My comment: My impact approach see Active or impact investing? – (prof-soehnholz.com)

Other investment research

Asset allocation problem? Empirical evidence on the stock-bond correlation by Roderick Molenaar, Edouard Sénéchal, Laurens Swinkels, and Zhenping Wang as of July 26th, 2023 (#377): “Our historical data starting in 1875 indicates that a positive stock-bond correlation has been more common than a negative one, even though the latter has been observed mostly in the past two decades. Our overarching finding is that for the post-1952 period with independent central banks, a positive stock-bond correlation is observed during periods with high inflation and high real returns on Treasury bills. … Historical regimes with positive stock-bond correlation are associated with higher volatility risk of a 60/40 portfolio and lower Sharpe ratios“ (p. 25/26). My comment: My most-passive allocation approach see Microsoft Word – 230720 Das Soehnholz ESG und SDG Portfoliobuch

………………………………………………………………………………….

Impact impact? Advert for German investors:

“Sponsor” my research by investing in and/or recommending my global small/midcap mutual fund (SFDR Art. 9). The fund focuses on social SDGs and uses separate E, S and G best-in-universe minimum ratings and broad shareholder engagement with currently 28 of 30 companies engaged: FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals R – DE000A2P37T6 – A2P37T

Finfluencers: influencer picture by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

Finfluencers: Researchpost #126

Finfluencers: 14x new research on CO2 storage, climate learnings, sustainable bonds, diversity, impact investing, active investing, and finfluencers by Laurens Swinkels, Alex Edmans, Caroline Flammer, Simon Glossner, Jeffrey Ptak, Michael Kitces, Norman Schürhoff, Christian Klein et al. (# indicates the number of SSRN downloads on May 9th, 2023)

Ecological and social research

CO2 Storage? CO2 storage or utilization? A real options analysis under market and technological uncertainty by Hanne Lamberts-Van Assche, Maria Lavrutich, Tine Compernolle, Gwenny Thomassen, Jacco Thijssen, and Peter M. Kort as of April 24th, 2023 (#8): “First, the presence of technological and market uncertainties … increase the barriers to invest in CCS or CCU. Second, when the firm anticipates the arrival of a more attractive CCU solution in the future, it will not postpone the investment in CCS. …. Third, higher uncertainty in the CO2 price, i.e. higher σ, increases the investment thresholds, while a higher trend in the CO2 price, i.e. higher α, decreases the investment thresholds for CCS and CCU. … First, policymakers should aim to ensure stability and predictability in the CO2 price, to lower the volatility σ of the CO2 price. Reducing the market uncertainty will lower the CO2 price investment thresholds for CCS, CCU and CCUS. Second, they should also commit to an increasing growth rate in the CO2 price in the EU ETS. When firms expect higher growth rates for the CO2 price in the future, they are more favourable to invest in CCS, CCU and CCUS sooner. Finally, policymakers should realize that CCU and CCS can be complementary solutions” (p. 32/33).

Climate-information matters: Complexity and Learning Effects in Voluntary Climate Action: Evidence from a Field Experiment by Johannes Jarke-Neuert, Grischa Perino, Daniela Flörchinger, and Manuel Frondel as of April 16th, 2023 (#26): “Exploiting the fact that timing matters, we have empirically investigated how individuals respond to (a) having the choice about the timing of their voluntary abatement efforts in the form of retiring an emission allowance and to (b) being confronted with either no, simple but counter-intuitive, or complex but intuitive information about the effectiveness-ranking of options. To this end, we have conceived a field experiment with more than four thousand participants that was embedded in a survey conducted in Germany in 2021 … Adding information did not systematically affect contributions overall, but substantially increased their effectiveness. … The uptake of information provided was most pronounced by individuals who most strongly believed in the opposite ranking“ (p. 15/16).

German pension wealth: Accounting for pension wealth, the missing rich and under-coverage: A comprehensive wealth distribution for Germany by Charlotte Bartels, Timm Bönke, Rick Glaubitz, Markus M. Grabka, and Carsten Schröder as of April 25th, 2023 (#13): “We found that including pension wealth increases the wealth-income ratio of German households from 570% to 850%. … pension wealth plays an equalizing role: The wealth share of the bottom 50% increases from 2% to 9% when including pension wealth, whereas that of the top 1% declines from 30% to 20%. However … Pension wealth is not transferable and, hence, differs significantly from marketable assets such as financial investments or housing“ (p. 12).

Responsible investment research: Finfluencers

Green and other bonds: Social, Sustainability, and Sustainability-Linked Bonds by Gino Beteta Vejarano and Laurens Swinkels from Robeco as of April 24th, 2023 (#107): “… several variations of sustainable bonds appearing in the market, where either use of proceeds are earmarked for sustainable activities, or coupon payments depend on sustainability targets. Despite the fast growth, the sustainable bond market is currently less than 4% of the overall bond market, with the green bond market accounting for half of it. Social and sustainability bonds tend to be issued by government or government-related institutions and, therefore generally have higher credit quality than sustainability-linked bonds, which are much more popular in the corporate sector. … The yields on sustainable bonds tend to be only marginally lower than those on conventional bonds with a similar risk profile …. Since correlations between returns on sustainable and conventional bonds are high, the risk and return profile of the portfolio is unlikely to change much when certain conventional bonds are replaced with ESG bonds with similar characteristics …” (p. 28).

Growing greenium? How Large is the Sovereign Greenium? by Sakai Ando, Chenxu Fu, Francisco Roch, and Ursula Wiriadinata as of April 19th, 2023 (#22): “This paper is the first empirical study to estimate the sovereign greenium using both the twin bonds issued by Denmark and Germany, and panel regression analysis. While the estimated greenium in this paper is not large, it has been increasing over time alongside the level of sovereign green bond issuances. … It remains an open question whether the purpose of the project associated with the green bond is a key determinant of the greenium, and whether green bonds have resulted in the climate outcomes they intended to achieve” (p.9/10).

Good diversity: Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion by Alex Edmans, Caroline Flammer, and Simon Glossner as of May 2nd, 2023 (#723): “… demographic diversity measures may miss many important aspects of DEI. … Companies with high DEI enjoyed recent strong financial performance and are less levered, suggesting that a strong financial position gives companies latitude to focus on long-term issues such as DEI that may take time to build. Small growth firms also exhibit higher DEI scores, consistent with either greater incentives or ability to improve DEI in such firms. … we find that the percentage of women in senior management is significantly positively associated with DEI perceptions, and this result holds regardless of the gender or ethnicity of the respondents. … DEI is also unrelated to general workplace policies and outcomes, suggesting that DEI needs to be improved by targeted rather than generic initiatives. … we find no evidence of a link between DEI and firm-level stock returns” (p. 25/26).

Impact measure: The Impact Potential Assessment Framework (IPAF) for financial products by Mickaël Mangot and Nicola Stefan Koch of the 2o investing initiative as of March 2023: “The Impact Potential Assessment Framework (IPAF) assesses financial products based only on their actions to generate real-life impact … It is exclusively based on public information provided by the product manufacturers … It is applicable to various types of financial products … serves as a tool against impact-washing by displaying practical limitations of self-labelled “impact products … First, it assesses the (maximum) impact potential of financial products based on impact mechanisms they supposedly apply (in relation to communicated elements in marketing documents). Those impact mechanisms are the ones widely documented by academic research: Grow new/undersupplied markets, Provide flexible capital, Engage actively, Send (market and nonmarket) signals. Second, it evaluates the implementation of that impact potential based on the intensity with which financial products action the various impact mechanisms in connection to success factors documented by academic research”. My comment: I try to provide as much impact as possible with my public equity mutual fund, see https://futurevest.fund/

Green demand: Nachfrage nach grünen Finanzprodukten, Teilbericht der Wissensplattform Nachhaltige Finanzwirtschaft im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes von Christian Klein, Maurice Dumrose, Julia Eckert vom April 2023: “… In this project report, the development of the sustainable investment market, especially in the retail sector, is presented and the characteristics of sustainable investments are introduced. Retail investor motives for investing in such products and the requirements retail investors have for sustainable investment products are highlighted. Barriers for retail investors and investment advisors are identified in the area of sustainable investments. Finally, based on these findings, recommendations for political action are proposed, which can lead to a reduction of these barriers and thus increase the acceptance of sustainable investments” (abstract). .. “Die Literatur zeigt eindeutig, dass insbesondere die Fehlannahme der Anlageberatenden, Retail-Investierende hätten kein Interesse an Nachhaltigen Geldanlagen und fragen deshalb nicht aktiv im Beratungsgespräch nach diesen, eine Barriere darstellt. Die Untersuchung von Klein et al. zeigt in diesem Zusammenhang deutlich, dass diese Barriere durch eine verpflichtende Abfrage der Nachhaltigkeitspräferenz der Retail-Investierenden überwunden werden kann. Ferner zeigt der aktuelle Forschungsstand, dass insbesondere ein zu geringes Wissen im Bereich Nachhaltige Geldanlage die zentrale Barriere für Anlageberatende darstellt. Hohe Transaktions- sowie Informationskosten, ein fehlendes kundengerechtes nachhaltiges Produktangebot, Zweifel an dem Beitrag, den Nachhaltige Geldanlagen zu einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung leisten, hohe wahrgenommene Komplexität, Wahrnehmung von Green Washing, Angst vor Haftungsrisiken, potentielle Reputationsrisiken und keine einheitliche bzw. gesetzliche Definition des Begriffs Nachhaltige Geldanlage konnten als weitere Barrieren identifiziert werden“ (S. 42/43).

2 ESG types? Sustainable investments: One for the money, two for the show by Hans Degryse, Alberta Di Giuli, Naciye Sekerci, and Francesco Stradi as of April 26th, 2023 (#66): “Analyzing a representative sample of Dutch households, we document the existence of two types of households: those that invest in sustainable products for social reasons (social sustainable investors) and those that do it for financial reasons (financial sustainable investors). The two groups are of equal importance but are characterized by different features. The social sustainable investors have higher social preferences, level of education and trust, and are more likely left-wing and less risk-loving. Reliable labelling, reducing greenwashing concerns, and emphasizing typical left-wing thematic linked to sustainable investments is positively related to sustainable investments by social sustainable investors, whereas hyping the benefit in terms of returns of sustainable investments through social media and word of mouth is positively associated with the investment decisions of financial sustainable investors” (abstract).

Traditional and fintech investment research: Finflucencers

Difficult 1/n?: Is Naïve Asset Allocation Always Preferable? by Thomas Conlon, John Cotter, Iason Kynigakis, and Enrique Salvador as of April 28th, 2023 (#90): “For allocation within asset classes, we find only limited evidence of outperformance in terms of risk-adjusted returns for optimized portfolios relative to the naïve benchmark … we find statistical and economic evidence that a bond portfolio that minimizes risk is the only case that provides outperformance of the 1/n rule. This evidence points to challenges in outperforming the equally weighted portfolio, especially when allocating among equities and REITs. When allocating across asset classes, we find that minimum-variance portfolios that include bonds exhibit higher Sharpe ratios than the equally weighted portfolio. These findings also carry over to downside risk, where optimal strategies have a lower VaR, both economically and statistically, than that associated with the equally weighted approach. Allocations across different asset classes also have lower rebalancing requirements, which means they are less affected by the transaction costs” (p. 26). My comment: My equity portfolios are all equal weighted. The most passive world market portfolio should be uses as reference instead of naïve asset allocation which does not work well because auf unclear asset class definitions, see Das-Soehnholz-ESG-und-SDG-Portfoliobuch.pdf (soehnholzesg.com). Regarding optimization limits see Kann institutionelles Investment Consulting digitalisiert werden? Beispiele. – Responsible Investment Research Blog (prof-soehnholz.com)

Active disaster: How Can Active Stock Managers Improve Their Funds’ Performance? By Taking a Vacation—a Long One by Jeffrey Ptak from Morningstar as of May 2nd, 2023: “While active large-cap managers made thousands of trades worth trillions of dollars over the 10-year period ended March 31, 2023 … The funds’ actual returns were almost identical to what they’d have been had those managers made no trades at all and were worse after adjusting for risk. And that was before fees were deducted”. My comment: With my portfolios/fund I try to trade as little as possible

Wealthtech changes: The Kitces AdvisorTech Map Highlights The Evolving Landscape As It Turns 5 Years Old by Michael Kitces and ben Henry-Moreland as of May 1st, 2023: “… there now 409 different software solutions …  with the total number of solutions more than doubling … Some highlights of these AdvisorTech evolution trends over the past 5 years include: The near-disappearance of the ‚B2B robo‘ tools as advisors demanded better onboarding capabilities but showed an unwillingness to pay for them on top of their broker-dealer or custodial providers … portfolio management tools have increasingly bought or built performance reporting and performance reporters acquired most of the available trading and rebalancing tools in a massive consolidation into what is now the „All-In-One“ category … The growth of the Behavioral Assessments category … The proliferation of specialized financial planning software …The explosion in advisor marketing technology …”

Bad influences: Finfluencers by Ali Kakhbod, Seyed Kazempour, Dmitry Livdan, and Norman Schürhoff as of May 4th, 2023 (#178): “… instead of following more skilled influencers, social media users follow unskilled and antiskilled finfluencers, which we define as finfluencers whose tweets generate negative alpha. Antiskilled finfluencers ride return and social sentiment momentum, which coincide with the behavioral biases of retail investors who trade on antiskilled finfluencers’ flawed advice. These results are consistent with homophily in behavioral traits between social media users and finfluencers shaping finfluencer’s follower networks and limiting competition among finfluencers, resulting in the survival of un- and antiskilled finfluencers despite the fact that they do not provide valuable investment advice. Investing contrarian to the tweets by antiskilled finfluencers yields abnormal out-of-sample returns, which we term the “wisdom of the antiskilled crowd.”“ (p. 40).

Literacy returns: Financial literacy and well-being: The returns to financial literacy by Sjuul Derkx, Bart Frijns, and Frank Hubers as of April 25th, 2023 (#21): “Using a panel data set of Dutch households over 2011-2020, we find that initial (2011) … financial literacy positively affects wealth accumulation for up to four years into the future, showing that there is mean-reversion in financial literacy when one no longer invests in it. Considering different age brackets, we document that financial literacy among the young results in higher income generation, while financial literacy among the old leads to greater wealth accumulation” (abstract).

………………………………..

Advert for German investors: “Sponsor” my research by investing in and/or recommending my article 9 mutual fund. The fund focuses on social SDGs and midcaps, uses separate E, S and G best-in-universe minimum ratings and broad shareholder engagement. The fund typically scores very well in sustainability rankings, e.g. see this free new tool, and the performance is relatively good: FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals R – DE000A2P37T6 – A2P37T

Wohnteilen Grafik zum positiven Schneeballeffekt

Wohnteilen: Viel Wohnraum-Impact mit wenig Aufwand

Wohnteilen: Mit Fokus auf Full-Service für 2er SeniorInnen WGs kann sehr ökologisch mit wenig Geld viel und t.w. seniorengerechter Wohnraum geschaffen werden. Das Konzept kann einfach auf andere Zielgruppen erweitert werden, auch als Werkswohnungsalternative. Mit unserem Beitrag präsentieren wir Ideen, die von anderen umgesetzt werden können wie Startups oder Großunternehmen, Kommunen, Stiftungen und Nicht-Regierungsorganisationen.

Das Konzept

Die Wohnteilen-Idee

Es gibt einen großen Mangel an bezahlbarem Wohnraum und gleichzeitig leben ziemlich viele Personen alleine in relativ großen Wohnungen oder Häusern. Wenn man diese „Singles“ dazu bringen würde, andere Personen bei sich aufzunehmen, könnte man sehr kostengünstig und ökologisch zusätzlichen Wohnraum schaffen.

Die Idee ist nicht neu. „Wohnen gegen Hilfe“ beispielsweise solle an Universitätsstandorten Wohnraum für Studierende bei Senioren schaffen. Außerdem bemühen sich einige Wohnungsgesellschaften und Städte, SeniorInnen zum Umzug in kleinere Wohnungen zu finden sind. Aber bisher hat es offenbar noch niemand geschafft, solche Projekte in einem größeren Maßstab bzw. dauerhaft erfolgreich umzusetzen.

Das ist auch uns auch noch nicht gelungen. Gemeinsam mit einem ehemaligen Kollegen von der Boston Consulting Group versuche ich seit 2017, Geldgeber für ein solches Projekt zu finden. Zunehmende Wohnungsknappheit, Inflation und vor allem Brennstoff- und Stromkostenerhöhungen sowie teure Modernisierungs- und Sanierungspflichten machen unser Wohnteilen genanntes Projekt jetzt aber attraktiver.

Großes Potenzial durch einen positiven Schneeball-Effekt

Die Grundidee ist einfach: Im Idealfall bringt Wohnteilen zwei Singles zum zusammenwohnen und die freiwerdende Wohnung wird von 2 weiteren Singles belegt. So werden zwei weitere Wohnungen vermietbar, die wiederum von 4 Singles bewohnt werden können. Scherzhaft nennen wir das 1+1=4 und bezeichnen es als positiven Schneeball- oder Multiplikationseffekt.

Interessenten müssen aber weder Singles sein noch eigenen Wohnraum mitbringen, denn das Projekt soll für möglichst viele Teilnehmer interessant sein. Das heißt, dass auch größere Wohngemeinschaften gebildet werden können und auch Mieter und nicht nur Eigentümer von Wohnraum zu unserer Zielgruppe gehören.

Unser regional umsetzbares aber grundsätzlich überregional angelegtes Konzept erfordert im Idealfall eine Anschubfinanzierung von mindestens einer Million Euro für Programmierungen einer Online-Matchingplattform und für ein kleines Full-Service Team, das auch persönliche Beratung leisten kann. Wohnteilen ist nicht auf Gewinn ausgelegt und soll als gemeinnützige GmbH gegründet werden, die sich im Idealfall nach wenigen Jahren selbst finanzieren kann. Auch eine gewinnorientierte Variante ist denkbar. Leider ist es uns bisher noch nicht gelungen, Sponsoren bzw. Anschubfinanzierer dafür zu finden.

SeniorInnen als primäre Zielgruppe

Recherchen und Diskussionen der Idee mit Experten und Laien führte zu Konkretisierungen, So kann man annehmen, dass oft vor allem ältere Damen, die ihren Mann verloren haben, nicht nur auf relativ vielen Quadratmetern wohnen, sondern vielleicht auch offen für MitbewohnerInnen sind, um Miet- oder Betriebskosten zu teilen, Einsamkeit zu reduzieren oder sich gegenseitig zu unterstützen, z.B. beim Ausführen von Hunden.

Hier sind zunächst die Fakten:

  1. Wohnungsknappheit liegt nicht primär am Bevölkerungsanstieg, sondern eher daran, dass die Wohnflächen pro Person in den letzten Jahren sehr stark gestiegen sind (vgl. Chaumet, M. und z.B.  Verbietet das Bauen | Der Blog gegen die Bauwut (verbietet-das-bauen.de)
  2. Je älter wir werden, desto mehr Wohnfläche nutzen wir ( (Ergebnisse der neuen Berechnungs- und Prognosemethode von Martin Chaumet, die neben Haushaltsgrößen auch das Alter von Personen und typische Haushaltszusammensetzungen berücksichtigt, u.a. S. 19/20)
  3. 5,9 Millionen, ein Drittel der über 64-Jährigen, leben in Ein-Personen-Haushalten (Körber-Stiftung und Berlin-Institut für Bevölkerung und Entwicklung)
  4. Die Wohnkosten sind auch für Eigentümer mit abgezahlten Wohnungen/Häusern ziemlich hoch (s. z.B. Bolz/Beckmann)
  5. Es besteht ein hoher Bedarf nach alters- bzw. seniorengerechten Umbauten (s. z.B. Bolz/Beckmann)
  6. Das Altersarmutsrisiko ist mit 40% sehr hoch (vgl. Bertelsmann S. 71 und Bovelet S. 18/19)
  7. Die Einsamkeit ist bei älteren Personen hoch und gesundheitsschädlich (vgl. Holt-Lundstad et. al. oder Kompetenznetz Einsamkeit (KNE) s. www.kompetenznetz-einsamkeit.de).

Im Rahmen unserer Befragungen zum Projekt Wohnteilen wurde klar: Viele ältere Personen wollen nicht aus ihren eigentlich zu großen Wohnungen ausziehen, weil sie oft woanders kaum billiger wohnen können aber vor allem, weil sie keine Veränderungen wünschen und auch den Aufwand von Umzügen scheuen. Und natürlich soll niemand zum Auszug gezwungen werden.

Auch dazu gibt es Zahlen:

  • Vor allem der Umzug in ein Altersheim wird von 40% der 50 bis 70Jährigen abgelehnt. Über 40% aus dieser Altersgruppe sind aber offen für Wohngemeinschaften bzw. Mehrgenerationenhäuser. Das sind „in den kommenden 5 bis 20 Jahren … etwa 10 Millionen Menschen …, die nicht ins Altersheim wollen und auf jeden Fall andere Lebensformen bevorzugen würden.“ (Otten, S. 172, 175/176, 245)

Bei Befragungen stellt man immer wieder fest, dass eine der Umzugsvoraussetzungen eigene abgeschlossene Wohnungen sind. Aber es gibt auch Anhänger von geteilten Wohnungen:

  • 12% der 65 bis 85jährigen bzw. 18% derjenigen mit höherer Schulbildung würde am liebstem in einer WG mit anderen Alten leben (Generali, S. 309/310). Bei 17,5 Millionen sind das ca. 2,1 Mio. Personen. Zum Vergleich: Derzeit befinden sich etwa 700.000 Personen in 8.500 Pflegeeinrichtungen (Eigene Berechnungen nach Statista-Daten, vgl. für die USA Aging | Joint Center for Housing Studies (harvard.edu)).

Wohnteilen-Unterschiede zu gemeinschaftlichen Wohnkonzepten und „Wohnen gegen Hilfe“

Eine Internetrecherche ergab kein umfassendes Lösungsangebot, das bisher nachhaltig erfolgreich war. Gemeinschaftliche Wohnprojekte (vgl. FORUM Gemeinschaftliches Wohnen e.V., Bundesvereinigung | Home (fgw-ev.de) boomen zwar, aber sie unterscheiden sich stark von unserem Ansatz. Bei solchen Projekten bauen sich meist größere Gruppen von oft nicht mehr ganz jungen Interessenten gemeinsam einen Bestandsbau nach ihren Bedürfnissen um oder bauen ein neues Mehrparteienhaus für sich. Gemeinschaftlichen Wohnprojekte sind typischerweise komplex, langwierig und teuer.

Wohnteilen ist auf Kooperationen von typischerweise nur zwei Personen ausgerichtet und fokussiert auf Bestandsbauten (vgl. in den USA z.B. www.seniorhomeshares.com bzw. www.silvernest.com). Beim Zusammenzug von nur zwei Personen sind zwar oft Umbauten nötig, diese können aber typischerweise schnell erfolgen. Damit ist ein Wohnprojekt für die InteressentInnen viel einfacher, schneller und kostengünstiger umsetzbar.

Unser Projekt ist zudem nicht nur auf einen Standort ausgerichtet wie beispielhafte Projekte in Magdeburg und Potsdam (vgl. Körber-Stiftung und Berlin-Institut für Bevölkerung und Entwicklung S. 13 und 16), sondern überregional umsetzbar. So können sich Interessen auch zu Wohngemeinschaften in anderen Orten zusammenfinden, beispielsweise wenn SeniorInnen in die Nähe anderer Familienmitglieder ziehen möchten.

Dabei können selbst Zweizimmerwohnungen grundsätzlich für Wohnteilen genutzt werden. In dem Fall werden Bad und Küche wie in einer typischen Studierenden-WG gemeinschaftlich genutzt. Ideal sind jedoch größere Häuser/Wohnungen mit mindestens drei Zimmern, vor allem solche mit zwei Bädern, die es relativ häufig gibt. Viele dieser Wohnungen bzw. Häuser sind, zumindest bei moderaten Qualitätsansprüchen, relativ kostengünstig in mehrere Wohnbereiche mit separaten Bädern teilbar. Teuer wird es meist nur, wenn gleichzeitig seniorengerechte Umbauten erfolgen sollen. Wohnteilen will solche Kosten aber durch Kooperationen mit „akkreditierten“Baufirmen begrenzen. Außerdem gibt es zahlreiche Fördergelder für solche Umbauten, die Wohnteilen empfehlen bzw. organisieren kann.

Unterschiede von SeniorInnen- und Studierenden-WGs

Zunächst haben wir uns gefragt, ob bestehende Wohngemeinschafts-Vermittlungen für unser Projekt genutzt werden können. SeniorInnen können ja dort schon heute freien Wohnraum annoncieren oder suchen. Die geringe Nutzung solcher Plattformen durch SeniorInnen liegt unserer Meinung nach nicht daran, dass diese  nicht mit dem Internet arbeiten wollen. Viele SeniorInnen scheinen inzwischen ziemlich internet-affin zu sein oder können Unterstützung durch Familienmitglieder oder sogar gemeinnützige oder öffentliche Services erhalten. Aber WG-Plattformen sind normalerweise auf Studierende ausgerichtet (Wohnbuddy aus Wien ist eine relativ neue Ausnahme).

Die geringe Nutzung liegt möglicherweise eher daran, dass SeniorInnen nicht unbedingt mit Studierenden zusammenziehen wollen und deshalb kaum Mitwohnangebote auf solchen Plattformen anbieten. Außerdem sind SeniorInnen WGs grundsätzlich auf längere Zeit angelegt als Studierenden WGs. Zudem sind SeniorInnen tagsüber typischerweise wesentlich länger vor Ort in den Wohnungen anwesend als Studierende.

Des Weiteren gehen wir davon aus, dass SeniorInnen lieber nur mit einer weiteren Person zusammenziehen als in größeren Gruppen, was bei Studierenden anders zu sein scheint. Für SeniorInnen ist es deshalb besonders wichtig, mit wem sie zusammenziehen. Und die Mitbewohnerauswahl ist über typische Studierenden-WG Plattformen allenfalls sehr beschränkt möglich.

Umsetzungsmöglichkeiten

Angebot als Engpass und lokaler Fokus wichtig

Unsere Ausgangshypothese war, dass das Angebot von Mitwohnmöglichkeiten der Engpass sein würde und nicht die Nachfrage. Außerdem sind wir davon ausgegangen, dass SeniorInnen meistens in der Nähe ihres bisherigen Wohnortes bzw. Quartiers bleiben wollen. Beide Argumente sprechen dafür, ein Pilotprojekt in einer großen Stadt mit begrenztem Wohnungsangebot zu starten.

Auch an den geringen Erfolgen von lokalen „Wohnen gegen Hilfe“ Projekten, bei denen Studierende zu SeniorInnen ziehen, kann man die These ableiten, dass SeniorInnen lieber mit gleichaltrigen als mit Studierenden zusammenziehen wollen.

Eine unserer Thesen ist, dass Zielwohnungen idealerweise seniorengerecht sein sollten. Aber es gibt nur sehr wenige seniorengerechte Wohnungen in Deutschland. Hinzu kommt, dass viele dieser Wohnungen im Erdgeschoß liegen, weil ein stufenloser Zugang eine der Voraussetzungen für solche Wohnungen ist. Und Erdgeschoßwohnungen werden wegen der wahrgenommenen Einbruchsgefahr oft als unsicherer angesehen als Wohnungen in höheren Etagen.

Anreize durch altersgerechte Umbauten: Full-Service Angebote?

Für seniorengerechte Wohnungen können höhere Mieten und Kaufpreise verlangt werden als für Standardwohnungen. Für Vermieter und Verkäufer können sie deshalb interessant sein. Senioren, die oft langjährige günstige Mietverträge haben oder bereits abbezahltes Eigentum bewohnen, können sich solche Wohnungen aber oft nicht ohne Weiteres leisten.

Ein Vorteil unseres Konzeptes ist es, dass sich mindestens zwei Personen eine seniorengerechte Wohnung teilen und so die Umbaukosten pro Bewohner niedriger sind als bei Singlewohnungen. Auch die Nebenkosten pro Person können bei einer geteilten Wohnung niedriger ausfallen und das kann sogar für eventuelle Betreuungs- bzw. Pflegekosten gelten.

Und seniorengerechte Wohnungen fehlen auch in Wohnorten, die nicht unter einem Nachfrageüberhang nach Wohnungen leiden. Wenn mit unserem Projekt mehr seniorengerechte Wohnungen geschaffen werden können, kann unser Projekt deshalb auch außerhalb von Ballungsgebieten attraktiv sein.

Unser Projekt ist aber bewusst nicht auf Pflegefälle ausgerichtet. Der Pflegemarkt ist reguliert und Pflege ist teuer und auch pflegerechte Wohnungen können erheblich teurer als seniorengerechte Wohnungen sein. Allerdings gehen wir davon aus, dass seniorengerechte Wohnungen von SeniorInnen länger genutzt werden können als in Standardwohnungen und damit ungeliebte Wechsel in Alters- und Pflegeheime verzögert oder sogar vermieden werden können.

Im Laufe unser Projektrecherchen hat sich herausgestellt, dass auf Dauer wohl nur Full-Serviceangebote erfolgreich sein werden. Das heißt, dass Wohnteilen Anbietern und Nachfragern von Mitwohnmöglichkeiten umfassende Beratungen zur Wohnpartnerauswahl, Mietverträgen, Umbauten und Umzügen liefern können sollte. Beim Nach-Zusammenziehen geht es dabei vor allem um Konfliktlösungsthemen in Bezug auf das Zusammenwohnen, um die Abbrecherquote möglichst gering zu halten.

Für Full-Service ist selbst bei weitgehender Auslagerung von Aufgaben wie der Programmierung einer Vermittlungsplattform ein Team von mehreren Personen nötig (ein IT-Entwurf für eine solche Plattform liegt bereits vor, vgl. Chaumet, N.). Das Kernteam könnte zum Beispiel aus einer Beraterin bzw. Psychologin, einer Bau- und einer juristischen Expertin sowie einer Marketingexpertin bestehen. Bei Nutzung von Videokommunikation ist dafür keine flächendecken Präsenz nötig. Das gilt vor allem wenn es gelingt, mit lokalen Organisationen mit ähnlichen Zielen wie zum Beispiel Wohnberatungsstellen oder Mietervereinen zu kooperieren.

Überschaubarer Finanzierungsbedarf für Wohnteilen

Um die im Rahmen des Projektes erforderliche Beratung von Interessenten und laufende Betreuung von „Kunden“ sicherzustellen, ist Einiges an eigenen Programmierungen und eigenem Personal und damit an Finanzmitteln erforderlich.

Wohnteilen soll aber nicht dauerhaft nur mit Spenden und öffentlichen Fördermitteln finanziert werden. Das würde bedeuten, dass mindestens kostendeckende Gebühren für Services angesetzt werden müssten. Während das für eine reine Online-Matching Plattform noch denkbar wäre, war schnell klar, dass eine umfassende qualifizierte persönliche Beratung einen erheblichen Zeitaufwand pro Kunde erfordern würde. Diese Nutzungskosten pro Fall haben wir sehr grob mit tausend bis zweitausend Euro geschätzt. Wenn Umbaumaßnahmen dazu kommen, kann der Beratungsbedarf aber sogar noch erheblich steigen. Das können oder wollen sich längst nicht alle SeniorInnen leisten. Wohnteilen ist aber auch auf SeniorInnen ausgerichtet, die sich diese Services nicht leisten können.

Wohnteilen selbst würde zwar keine Umbauarbeiten auf eigene Kosten durchführen, sondern Partner suchen, die ein möglichst gutes Preis-/Leistungsverhältnis bieten. Grundsätzlich sind deshalb auch Aufstockungen, Anbauten oder separate (Mini-)Häuser im Garten möglich, um zusätzlichen Wohnraum zu schaffen. Wohnteilen kann zudem dabei helfen, geeignete Profis für Renovierungen, Entrümpelungen, Neumöblierungen und Umzüge zu.

Solvente Service-NutzerInnen sollen für diese Services zahlen und zusätzlich sind Spenden, Zuschüsse, Sponsoring und auch Werbeeinnahmen über die geplante Online-Plattform geplant. Das wird aber zumindest in den Anfangsjahren nicht ausreichen, um die Kosten zu decken.

Anders als bei Stiftungen und Vereinen haben Eigenkapitalgeber des von uns geplanten gemeinnützigen Unternehmens dabei grundsätzlich einen Anspruch auf Erhalt bzw. Rückzahlung ihres Kapitals. Vor allem aber können Kredite aufgenommen werden, für die marktübliche Zinsen an die Kreditgeber gezahlt werden können. Gemeinnützige Unternehmen sind zudem viel weniger reguliert als Stiftungen und dadurch viel flexibler. Inzwischen liegt eine vom Finanzamt akzeptierte Satzung für ein solches Unternehmen vor. Die Satzung sieht sogar vor, dass Wohnteilen Wohnungen und Häuser anmieten und ankaufen darf.

Einige wahrgenommene Hemmnisse

Eigene Wohnteilen-Befragung in 2018 durchgeführt

Um die vielfältigen möglichen Einwände gegen und die Erfolgsvoraussetzungen für unser Projekt zu prüfen, haben wir uns dazu entschlossen, eine formelle Untersuchung zu machen. Dafür haben wir die studentische Unternehmensberatung Green Finance Consulting (GREEN finance consulting e. V. – Die studentische Unternehmensberatung Frankfurt – Studenten beraten Unternehmen (green-fc.de)) von der Goethe-Universität Frankfurt angesprochen, die für unseren guten Zweck sogar umsonst arbeitet gearbeitet hat.

Die sehr engagierten Studenten der Gruppe haben zwei Befragungen erarbeitet, die Anfang 2018 durchgeführt wurden. Eine Befragung in Zusammenarbeit mit dem Deutschen Roten Kreuz Frankfurt richtete sich an Senioren direkt, um die Bedeutung einzelner Gründe für und gegen Wohngemeinschaften zu erfragen. Die zweite Befragung richtete sich mit vergleichbarer Fragestellung an ausgewählte Wohnungsgesellschaften in Frankfurt, München, Düsseldorf und Köln.

Beide Befragungen stießen auf relativ wenig Resonanz und führten nur zu wenig ermutigenden Rückmeldungen. So war nur ein einziges der vielen teils mehrfach angesprochenen Wohnungsunternehmen überhaupt bereit, sich zu dem Projekt zu äußern. Das hat uns aber nicht daran gehindert, weiter an dem Projekt zu arbeiten.

Politiker bisher nicht interessiert

Einige Passagen des Koalitionsvertrages von 2017, vor allem die unter dem Stichwort „Wohnraumoffensive“, lesen sich wie auf Wohnteilen zugeschnitten, z.B. „Wir wollen das Engagement von Genossenschaften, kommunalen und kirchlichen Wohnungsunternehmen, nicht gewinnorientierten Initiativen und Stiftungen für den Neubau und eine sozialverträgliche Sanierung im Sinne einer Gemeinwohlorientierung unterstützen. Wir wollen dazu gezielt langfristige Finanzierungen und Bürgschaften über 20 Jahre durch die KfW zur Verfügung stellen. Mit Beratung, weiteren innovativen Finanzierungsmodellen und einem Austausch guter Beispiele wollen wir auch Neugründungen in diesem Feld unterstützen.“ Und auch die aktuelle Bundesregierung ist grundsätzlich an solchen Projekten interessiert, wie zum Beispiel Äußerungen von Ministerin Geywitz zeigen.

Da wir der Ansicht sind, dass gerade Kommunen von unserem Projekt profitieren könnten, um Wohnungsengpässe zu reduzieren, haben wir einige PolitikerInnen daraufhin angesprochen. Deshalb war es enttäuschend, dass keine der bisher von uns auf Wohnteilen angesprochenen Kommunen bzw. PolitikerInnen unterschiedlicher Parteien bisher an einer Diskussion unseres Projektes interessiert war. Die Kommunalangestellten haben auf fehlende politische Vorgaben hingewiesen und die PolitikerInnen darauf, dass unser Projekt in keinem Parteiprogramm und daher erst recht nicht in kommunalen Koalitionsvereinbarungen erscheint. Um unser Projekt nicht zu politisieren, haben wir Parteien bisher nicht drauf angesprochen.

Theoretisch können durch Wohnteilen nicht nur Neubaukosten und damit Investitionen reduziert, sondern auch laufende öffentliche Budgets zum Beispiel durch geringere Wohngeldzuschüsse entlastet werden. Dem stehen aber sehr inflexible Regelungen von Wohngeld und Hartz IV bzw. dem Bürgergeld gegenüber. Denn wenn eine Person, der grundsätzlich 45qm Wohnraum zu den Kosten des aktuellen Mietspiegels zustehen, durch einen freiwilligen Umzug in eine WG weniger Wohnkosten verursacht, hat sie selbst davon keine Vorteile. Allerdings könnten Kommunen Prämien und Zuschüsse als Anreize für Umzüge in WGs zahlen.

Kein Interesse bei Immobilien- und Partnerschaftsportalen oder Wohnungsgesellschaften

Bevor wir nach Geldgebern gesucht haben, wollten wir Partner haben, die uns bei der Wohnungsbeschaffung helfen können. Wir hatten schon früh die Idee, ein WG-Portal mit den konzeptionellen Elementen eines Partnersuchpotentials zu verbinden. Statt ein neues Portal zu entwickeln wäre es ideal gewesen, mit bestehenden Partnerschafts- und/oder Immobilienportalen zu kooperieren, um deren zahlreiche Nutzer aktiv auf die Bildung von WGs anzusprechen. Diese Idee hat sich ziemlich schnell zerschlagen, denn keines der angeschriebenen Portale hat auf ein entsprechendes Anschreiben geantwortet.

Wir dachten, dass unser Konzept für Großeigentümer von Mietwohnungen interessant sein müsste, vor allem für solche mit „sozialem“ Auftrag, also z.B. kommunale Wohnungsgesellschaften. Unsere Gespräche mit mehreren solcher Gesellschaften waren jedoch alle erfolglos.

Dadurch wurde uns klar, dass die Wohnungsgesellschaften nicht genug Anreize haben, um unser Projekt zu unterstützen. Sie haben lange Wartelisten für ihre Wohnungen und seniorengerechte Umbauen führen zu Aufwand bei der Wohnungsgesellschaft und zunächst zu Mietausfällen in der Umbauzeit. Hinzu kommt die derzeit ohnehin knappe Verfügbarkeit von Bau- und Planungsservices.

Außerdem halten Wohnungsgesellschaften meist gar nichts von Wohngemeinschaften. So werden Untermieten manchmal faktisch ausgeschlossen und auch Gemeinschaftsmietverträge durch mehrere Mieter aufgrund der erhöhten Verwaltungskosten und wahrgenommenen Risiken abgelehnt.

Wohlfahrtorganisationen wollen Geld für ihre Mitarbeit

Nach Wohnungsgesellschaften haben wir Wohlfahrtsorganisationen angesprochen, vor allem solche, die selbst Wohn- und Pflegemöglichkeiten anbieten. Die Caritas, die Arbeiterwohlfahrt, das Deutsche Rote Kreuz etc. haben sehr viel Erfahrung mit Senioren und deren Problemen. Sie haben zudem Zugang zu sehr vielen Senioren und damit potenziellen Anbietern und Nachfragern von WG-Plätzen. Aber auch diese Gespräche waren sehr ernüchternd. Unser Konzept wurde zwar gelobt, aber mit Ausnahme des Frankfurter Roten Kreuzes war keine der angesprochenen Gesellschaften zu einer Zusammenarbeit bereit.

Uns wurde schnell klar, dass Wohlfahrtsverbände schon jetzt sehr viele Aufgaben und relativ wenige Ressourcen dafür haben. Um unseren Service attraktiv für sie zu machen, müsste er schnell mindestens kostendeckend für die Wohlfahrtsverbände sein. Das konnten wir nicht versprechen. Manchmal sind wir auch danach gefragt worden, wie viel Geld wir mitbringen, um unser Konzept umzusetzen.

Wir haben auch geprüft, ob es Stiftungen gibt, die uns unterstützen würden. Zwar gibt es tausende von Stiftungen in Deutschland, aber die meisten davon sind vom Stiftungszweck und/oder dem regionalen Einsatzgebiet her sehr beschränkt.

Da wir unsere Services grundsätzlich im deutschsprachigen Raum bzw. zumindest ganz Deutschland anbieten wollten, haben wir uns zunächst die Förderbedingungen großer deutscher Stiftungen angesehen. Wir haben nur sehr wenige gefunden, die als Förderer in Frage kommen. Diese haben wir direkt angeschrieben bzw. angesprochen, allerdings bisher ohne Erfolg.

Dafür konnten wir einige öffentliche Fördermittelprogramme identifiziert, die theoretisch zur Finanzierung in Frage kommen. So gibt es zum Beispiel passende Bundes- und europäische Fördermittel für Kommunen.

Muss Wohnteilen umfassender sein?

Alternative zu Werkswohnungen: Zielgruppe Großunternehmen in Ballungsgebieten

Im Anschluss haben wir einen weiteren Versuch gestartet und Unternehmen mit vielen Niedriglohnbeschäftigten in Ballungsgebieten angesprochen. Mehrere solcher Unternehmen klagen darüber, dass sie nicht genug Mitarbeiter finden, was auch an fehlenden günstigen Wohnmöglichkeiten liegen soll.

Unser Konzept sieht vor, dass diese Unternehmen ihre Pensionäre und Mitarbeiter befragen, ob sie grundsätzlich bereit sind, Wohnraum zur Verfügung zu stellen. Die Hemmschwellen sollten so gesenkt werden können, denn der aktuelle oder ehemalige Arbeitgeber unterstützt das Projekt. Wenn gewollt, kann die Vermittlung von Wohnraum auch auf aktuelle und ehemalige Unternehmensangehörige beschränkt werden. Aber auch mit dieser Idee sind wir noch nicht weitergekommen.

Wohnteilen-Konzepterweiterung durch Anmietung bzw. Ankauf durch Wohnteilen und mehr Zielgruppen

Im Rahmen unserer Gespräche und Recherchen wurde klar, dass Senioren und vor allem andere Bedürftige nicht als ideale Mieter gelten, weil sie oft betreuungsintensiv sind. In einem Fall wurde von einem leitenden Mitarbeiter eines Wohnungsbauunternehmens gesagt, dass die Weitervermietung von Wohnungen von gestorbenen Senioren oft nur zeitverzögert möglich ist, bis offene rechtliche Fragen geklärt sind und die Räumung erfolgt ist. Zudem bestehen Wohnungsgesellschaften typischerweise auf teuren Rückbauten der seniorengerechten Umbauten, die sich viele Senioren auch nicht leisten können oder wollen.

Außerdem bekommen Senioren aufgrund geänderter gesetzlicher Bedingungen seit der letzten Finanzkrise nur noch sehr schwer Kredite, mit denen sie ihre Häuser oder Wohnungen seniorengerecht umbauen können.

Wenn Wohnteilen als Mieter oder Käufer von Wohnungen auftritt, können viele dieser Probleme gelöst werden.

Einige Gruppen wie Auszubildende, Studierende, nicht-heterosexuelle Paare, Selbstständige, Tierhalter, Flüchtlinge, Obdachlose, ausländisch aussehende Mitbürger und andere Personen mit niedrigen Einkommen bzw. schlechten Kreditwürdigkeiten werden am freien Wohnungsmarkt oft nicht als Mieter akzeptiert. In dem Wohnteilen als Mieter oder Käufer auftritt, können bezahlbare Wohnmöglichkeiten für solche Gruppen geschaffen werden. Bei eigener Anmietung und erst recht Kauf von Wohnungen und Häusern sind aber Finanzmittel in erheblichem Umfang erforderlich. Ein relativ hoher Kapitalbedarf könnte das Projekt für kommerzielle Investoren wie Venture Capital Fonds interessant machen. Solche Fonds sind meistens nicht an Projekten mit geringem Finanzbedarf interessiert sind, weil diese typischerweise auch nur wenig Gewinnpotential haben.

Kommerzielles Impact-Projekt für Finanzinvestoren?

Sogenannte Impact Investments sollen Geldanlegern nicht nur gute Renditen einbringen, sondern auch positive soziale oder ökologische Veränderungen (vgl. Impact Investing mit Voting und Engagement? (Opinionpost #194) – Responsible Investment Research Blog (prof-soehnholz.com)). Solche Investments werden immer populärer und es gibt relativ viele Investitionsmittel dafür.

Potenzielle Geldgeber wollen bei Impact-Projekten gerne messen, wie sozial bzw. ökologisch erfolgreich solche Projekte sind. Das ist bei Wohnteilen relativ einfach. Der sogenannte „soziale Impact“ eines solchen Projektes lässt sich durch die zusätzlich geschaffenen Wohnplätze bzw. Wohnflächen einfach messen. Und die Kosten dafür sind ebenfalls einfach zu beziffern. Auch der ökologische Impact kann durch die Vermeidung von Neubauten kalkuliert werden. Vielleicht führt die Nachfrage nach Impact-Investments dazu, dass sich doch noch Geldgeber für Wohnteilen finden.

Fazit

Mit Fokus auf Full-Service für 2er SeniorInnen WGs kann sehr ökologisch mit wenig Geld viel und t.w. seniorengerechter Wohnraum geschaffen werden. Das Konzept kann einfach auf andere Zielgruppen erweitert werden, auch als Werkswohnungsalternative. Mit unserem Beitrag präsentieren wir Ideen, die von anderen umgesetzt werden können wie Startups oder Großunternehmen, Kommunen, Stiftungen und Nicht-Regierungsorganisationen.

Literatur

Bertelsmann Stiftung: Entwicklung der Altersarmut bis 2036 – Trends, Risikogruppen und Politikszenarien, 2017

Bolz, Pia/Beckmann, Nils: Dezernat für Soziales, Senioren, Jugend und Recht: Bedarfsanalyse Seniorengerechtes Wohnen in Frankfurt am Main, 2010

Bovelet, Rainer: SchuldnerAtlas Deutschland 2019 | News | Creditreform, Creditreform 2019

Chaumet, Martin: Berechnung der Altersabhängigkeit der internen Umverteilungen am Wohnungsmarkt als strategische Grundlage für Optimierungsmaßnahmen, in ZIWP Zeitschrift für Immobilienwirtschaft und Immobilienpraxis Nr. 1/2019

Chaumet, Noah: Entwicklung von Matching –Algorithmus und dessen Auswahlkriterien zur Bildung SeniorInnen-WGs sowie Design der benötigten Oberfläche, Projektarbeit, Januar 2019 (unveröffentlicht)

Generali: Altersstudie 2013, Wie ältere Menschen leben, denken und sich fühlen, 2012

Holt-Lundstad et. al.: Loneliness and social isolation as risk factors for mortality: A meta-analytic review, 2015

Körber-Stiftung und Berlin-Institut für Bevölkerung und Entwicklung: Ageing in Place. Wohnen in der altersfreundlichen Stadt. Kommunale Strategien für die Babyboomer-Generation, November 2022

Netzwerk Immovilien (Hrsg.): Strukturen und Prozesse für mehr Gemeinwohl, Berlin, Mai 2022

OptiWohn – Flächennutzung optimieren, Neubaudruck reduzieren (wohnen-optimieren.de)

Otten, Dieter: Die 50+ Studie – Wie die jungen Alten die Gesellschaft revolutionieren, 2008

Rahman, Sharukh und Kumar, Manoj: Optimal Room and Roommate Matching System Using Nearest Neighbours Algorithm with Cosine Similarity Distribution, Jan. 24th, 2021

Söhnholz, Dirk: Impact Investing mit Voting und Engagement? (Opinionpost #194) – Responsible Investment Research Blog (prof-soehnholz.com), November 2022