Social research: 9x new research on immigration, human resources, activists, transition investing, carbon prices and taxes, ESG performance and female entrepreneurs by Moritz Drupp, Gilbert Metcalf, James Stock and many others
New social research
Good immigration: Immigration and Nationalism in the Long Run by Valentin Lang and Stephan A. Schneider as of June 8th, 2023 (#248): “Drawing on a natural experiment from Germany, we show that the massive inflow of forced migrants after World War II reduces voting for nationalist parties more than 70 years later. Voters in municipalities that experienced this historical immigration shock are significantly less likely to respond to current immigration waves by voting for nationalist parties. … Individual-level evidence from a customized survey with a randomized experiment aligns with these results and shows that immigration-friendly attitudes in the regions that experienced the expellee inflow result from norm transmission within families and local communities. The long-term electoral effect is driven by both descendants of expellees and descendants of natives. Experimentally evoking memories of the historical experience also leads to more pro-immigration responses. … In many countries, the nationalist backlash against immigration is regionally concentrated; interestingly often in regions with relatively few immigrants. Our results offer an explanation for this particular phenomenon and suggest that the lack of experience with immigration in such regions is an important mechanism behind hostile political reactions. Second, the results highlight that the short- and long-run political effects of immigration can go in opposite directions“ (p. 39/40).
ESG keeps people: Effect of Corporate Environment Social and Governance Reputation on Employee Turnover by Ming Leung, Chuchu Liang, Ben Lourie and Chenqi Zhu as of August 20th, 2023 (#72): “We investigate how a firm’s environmental, social, and governance (ESG) reputation, as measured by the ESG sentiment of news articles, affects employee turnover. … Regression analyses on a firm-month panel of 1,822 publicly listed US firms from 2008 to 2018 reveal that a better public ESG reputation is associated with lower employee turnover and … this effect is stronger among female employees. … ESG reputation affects both men and women in states that have more Democratic voters …” (abstract). My comment: Here are some more employee related sources and ideas HR-ESG shareholder engagement: Opinion-Post #210 – Responsible Investment Research Blog (prof-soehnholz.com)
Good narcissists? Understanding Involvement in Environmental Activism: Relationships to Pathological Narcissism, Virtue Signaling, Dominance, and Sensation Seeking by Ann Krispenz and Alex Bertrams as of Sept. 8th, 2023 (#14): “Results support the validity of the DEVP (Sö: dark-ego-vehicle principle) by showing that higher pathological narcissistic grandiosity was related to greater involvement in environmental activism, even above and beyond relevant covariates (i.e., pathological narcissistic vulnerability, age, and gender). Also, we found positive relationships between involvement in environmental activism and typical correlates of pathological narcissistic grandiosity (i.e., virtue signaling, dominance, and sensation seeking)“ (abstract).
New ecological research
Urgent transition: The Road to Paris: Stress Testing the Transition Towards a Net-Zero Economy by Tina Emambakhsh, Maximilian Fuchs, Simon Kordel, Charalampos Kouratzoglou, Chiara Lelli, Riccardo Pizzeghello, Carmelo Salleo, and Martina Spaggiari from the European Central Bank as of Sept. 7th, 2023 (#42): “… By comparing different transition scenarios, the results of the exercise show that acting immediately and decisively would provide significant benefits for the euro area economy and financial system, not only by maintaining the optimal net-zero emissions path (and therefore limiting the physical impact of climate change), but also by limiting financial risk. An accelerated transition to a carbon-neutral economy would be helpful to contain risks for financial institutions and would not generate financial stability concerns for the euro area, provided that firms and households could finance their green investments in an orderly manner. However, the heterogeneous results across economic sectors and banks suggest that more careful monitoring of certain entities and subsets of credit exposures will be required during the transition process“ (abstract). My comment regarding transition investments see ESG Transition Bullshit? – Responsible Investment Research Blog (prof-soehnholz.com)
Good competition: Competitive Pressure and Emission Reduction: Unravelling the Link by Simone Cenci, Hossein Asgharian, Lu Liu, Marek Rei, and Maurizio Zollo as of Selt.9th, 2023 (#16): „We analysed data of 2 300 publicly traded firms from 47 countries and across all (GICS) sectors from 2011 to 2020. The main results of our analysis show that competitive pressures induce firms to increase their sustainability initiatives and to diversify their sustainability effort across different actions and SDGs. Sustainability behaviour diversification is in turn associated with lower future emissions. … We also find a significant heterogeneity in the magnitude of the effect across sectors and geographies“ (p.18/19).
Scientist disagreement? Heterogeneity in Expert Recommendations for Designing Carbon Pricing Policies across the Globe by Frikk Nesje, Robert C. Schmidt, and Moritz A. Drupp as of Sept.8th,2023 (#13): “… we present recommendations from a global survey of more than 400 experts to inform key design issues for carbon pricing policies. We find that almost twice as many experts favor a carbon tax over a cap-and-trade scheme for unilateral carbon pricing, and three-quarters strongly recommend using border carbon adjustment to address competitiveness concerns. Recommendations on the usage of revenues from carbon pricing exhibit a substantial degree of heterogeneity. While transfers to particularly affected households and equal lump sum transfers are among the options most favored, these account for only around 40 percent of recommendations …“ (abstract).
Good taxes? The Macroeconomic Impact of Europe’s Carbon Taxes by Gilbert E. Metcalf and James H. Stock as of July 10th, 2023 (#34): Placing a price on carbon pollution is widely viewed as the most cost‐effective approach to reducing emissions. … Using variation in the use of carbon taxes in European countries that are all part of the EU Emission Trading System (ETS), we find no evidence to support claims that the tax would adversely impact employment or GDP growth. We find modest evidence for emissions reductions arising from the tax”. (p. 24).
New ESG investment and other social research
Differentiated ESG performance: ESG and Global Investor Returns Study by Kroll as of September 2023: “Global portfolios of companies with higher ESG ratings earned a better annual compound return, when compared to portfolios of worse-rated companies over the 2013−2021 period. … with the notable exceptions of Brazil and Germany, 10 out of the 12 countries/markets analyzed individually saw companies rated as ESG Leaders outperform … Industries within the World portfolio also saw ESG Leaders generally outperform Laggards, except for Consumer Staples and Health Care. When industries were analyzed within regions or individual countries/markets, the relationship between returns and ESG ratings was less pronounced. … U.S. Laggards in the Energy, Health Care and Communications Services sectors significantly outperformed their better-rated counterparts“ (p. 40). My comment: Regarding industries I currently have a similar experience see ESG gut: 1. Halbjahr gut für ESG- und schlecht für SDG-Portfolios – (prof-soehnholz.com)
Female tools: Female Entrepreneurs, Digital Tools, and Work-Life Balance: Evidence from Small Businesses around the World by Elizabeth Lyons and Laurina Zhang as of Aug. 14th, 2023 (#14): “… we find that men and women do not differ in their extent of digital tool use for managing business activities that involve external stakeholders, but women are significantly less likely to use digital tools to manage internal business activities. This gender gap persists even in relatively gender equal countries and in industries where the benefits of using internal digital tools are high” (p. 12/13).
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