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Grüne Kenntnisdefizite und mehr aktuelles Research

Grüne Kenntnisdefizite: Umwelt

Frauenklimapower: Does gender diversity in the workplace mitigate climate change? von Yener Altunbas, Leonardo Gambacorta, Alessio Reghezza und Giulio Velliscig vom 16. November 2021: “We find that a 1 percentage point increase in the percentage of female managers within the firm leads to a 0.5% decrease in CO2 emissions. We document that this effect is statically significant, also when controlling for institutional differences caused by more patriarchal and hierarchical cultures and religions. At the same time, we show that gender diversity at the managerial level has stronger mitigating effects on climate change if females are also well-represented outside the organization, e.g. in political institutions and civil society organizations. Finally, we find that, after the Paris Agreement, firms with greater gender diversity reduced their CO2 emissions by about 5% more than firms with more male managers” (abstract).

Grüne Zentralbank: To be or not to be “green”: how can monetary policy react to climate change? von Lena Boneva, Gianluigi Ferrucci und Francesco Paolo Mongelli von deru Europäischen Zentralbank vom 25. November 2021 (#182): “This paper starts by documenting why climate change matters for monetary policy: it impacts the economic variables relevant to setting the monetary policy stance, it interacts with fiscal and structural responses and it can generate dislocations in financial markets, which are impossible for monetary policy to ignore. Next, we survey several possible ways central banks can respond to climate change. These range from protective actions to more proactive measures aimed at mitigating climate change and supporting green finance and the transition to sustainable growth. We also discuss the constraints and trade-offs faced by central banks as they respond to climate risks. Finally, focusing on the specific challenges faced by inflation-targeting central banks, we consider how certain design features of this regime might interact with, and evolve in response to, the climate challenge” (abstract).

Braune Dividenden: Carbon Boards and Transition Risk: Explicit and Implicit exposure implications for Total Stock Returns and Dividend Payouts von Matteo Mazzarano, Gianni Guastella und Stefano Pareglio, Anastasios Xepapadeas vom 24. November 2021 (#32): “There are two ways these (Sö: listed US) companies can disclose their transition risk exposure and are not alternatives. One is the explicit declaration of exposure to transition risk in the legally binding documents that listed companies must provide authorities. The other is the disclosure of GHG equivalent emissions, which is implicitly associated with transition risk exposure. … Results suggest that both explicit and implicit risks are positively related to dividend payouts and not to stock returns, while the overall effect on total stock returns is negative” (S. 1). Mein Kommentar: Sollten Umweltsünder nicht lieber in eine grüne Transition investieren, statt Dividenden auszuzahlen, vgl. Transitionierer: Dividendenverbot für ESG Sünder? – Verantwortungsvolle (ESG) Geldanlage (prof-soehnholz.com)

Grüne CEOs: Winning the Race to Net Zero: The CEO Guide to Climate Advantage vom World Economic Forum und der Boston Consulting Group vom 17. Januar 2022: “The immediacy, pace and extent of change are still widely underestimated, but early movers can seize significant advantages. This report shows how. Global climate action accelerates. … Change will happen faster than you think. … The net-zero transition is an opportunity. … Individual companies can change the game. … The CEO Guide to Climate Advantage. … It’s time to commit, engage and act. The world is embarking on the biggest peacetime transformation in history. Rarely has a full generation of CEOs faced so big an opportunity – and so great a threat. This is a time like no other for bold, ambitious leadership. It’s time to move“ (S. 4).

Soziales

Sozialismuskosten: Are the Supporters of Socialism the Losers of Capitalism? Conformism in East Germany and Transition Success von Max Deter und Martin Lange vom 5. Janaur 2022 (#43): “This study documents the economic and political differences between former supporters and opponents of a state socialist autocracy in a market-based democracy over almost three decades. … Our results show that former opponents of the system benefited from the abolition of the old system in terms of life satisfaction, income, and employment. Former supporters of the state socialist system lack the wage premium that exists for other transition countries, and even lost substantially in terms of life satisfaction. Further analyses suggest that these results are not grounded in differential behavior between supporters and opponents after reunification, but seem to be affected by the system change itself. The removal of discriminatory practices by the autocracy hints at an improvement of opportunities for former opponents of the GDR” (S. 18).

Intoleranzeffekte: Intolerance Predicts Climate Skepticism von Alva Johansson, Niclas Berggren und Therese Nilsson vom 18. November 2021 (#21): “The theoretical link from intolerance to climate skepticism is driven by two elements: insufficient or biased knowledge formation and a value of not caring very much about the welfare of others. Our empirical analysis confirms that intolerance on the basis of race, ethnicity, immigration status, religion or sexual orientation predicts climate skepticism. … an increase in the share who are intolerant towards people of a different race in the individual’s country of origin by 10 percentage points implies a reduced probability of the individual considering the consequences of climate change extremely bad of 4.3 percentage points (21.5%)” (abstract).

Frauenboni: Gender Biases in Performance Evaluation: The Role of Beliefs versus Outcomes von Nisvan Erkal, Lata Gangadharan und Boon Han Koh vom 14. Dezember 2021 (#21): “We find that while the discretionary payments made to male leaders are determined by both outcomes and evaluators’ beliefs, those made to female leaders are determined by outcomes only. … They imply that in the labor market, good outcomes are necessary for women to get bonuses, but men can receive bonuses for bad outcomes as long as evaluators hold them in high regard” (abstract).

Menschenrechtsverletzungen: Actions speak louder: Assessing bank responses to human rights violations von Banktrack vom 14. Januar 2022: “Over half of the 69 responses (36, or 52%) did not address the substance of the issue raised or acknowledge the bank’s link to the impact. … In 44 instances (64% of all responses), banks provided no detail of any action taken to prevent, mitigate or address the impact. … No banks showed that they monitor the impacts of any action taken ….There are clear differences by country, with French banks setting a (relatively) good example” (S. 7).

Akademikerbonus: Academic Directors and Corporate Innovation von Yutong Xiea , Jin Xub und Ruiyao Zhub vom 2. November 2021 (#50): “On average, total asset-scaled R&D expenditures are 0.9 to 1 percentage point higher for firms with academic boards than for firms with non-academic boards. Firms with academic boards also produce more patents and patents with greater impacts and higher value. Academic directors are associated with higher firm value at innovative firms where innovation is more valuable” (S. 25).

Studiengebührenerhöhung? Income Contingency and the Electorate’s Support for Tuition von Philipp Lergetporer und Ludger Woessmann vom 18. Januar 2022 (#4): “For more than six decades, economists have advocated deferred income-contingent financing schemes of higher education on efficiency and equity grounds … we add a political-economy dimension to the analysis by demonstrating that income-contingent schemes are strongly favored by the electorate and are therefore politically more feasible. … We conduct randomized experiments in seven representative German adult surveys and an additional adolescent survey with a total of almost 20,000 observations … Public opinion on upfront tuition is divided, with a slight plurality opposed. Designing tuition instead as deferred payments that depend on future income has a large treatment effect of 18.3 percentage points. Thus, tuition has strong majority support of 62.4 percent if it is charged after graduation and only if future income exceeds a certain threshold” (S. 23).

Grüne Kenntnisdefizite: Nachhaltige Investments und Finanzierungen

Öldivestments: Betting Against Oil: The Implications of Divesting from Fossil Fuel Stocks von David Blitz von Robeco vom 7. Januar 2022 (#153): “… we conclude that although divesting from fossil fuel stocks appears to have a neutral effect on long term expected returns, it does make a portfolio vulnerable to significant underperformance during oil or energy rallies that can take place in the short and medium term” (S. 8/9). Mein Kommentar: Letzteres hätte man wohl auch ohne Research feststellen können.

Grüne Anleiherisiken: How ‘Greenflation’ Could Impact Bond Returns von Thomas Verbraken und Daniel Szabo von MSCI vom 14. Januar 2022: “If investors suddenly shifted their expectations from a climate-agnostic baseline to a “Net-Zero 2050” scenario, a U.S. sovereign-bond portfolio’s value could drop by approximately 4%”.

Waldvernichtungskredite: A climate wake-up: but business failing to hear the alarm on deforestation von Forest 500 vom 13. Januar 2022: “The Forest 500, now in its eighth year, tracks the policies and performance of the 350 most influential companies and 150 financial institutions linked to deforestation in their supply chains and investments. … The financial institutions identified in the Forest 500 provided more than US$5.5 trillion in finance to companies in forest-risk supply chains, but are doing little to ensure they are not driving deforestation: 93 of the 150 financial institutions that are most exposed to deforestation do not have a deforestation policy covering their investments and lending to companies in key forest-risk commodity supply chains. The 93 financial institutions without deforestation policies provide US$2.6 trillion in finance to the companies with the highest exposure to deforestation risk. Just 23 of the financial institutions with a deforestation policy reported on their progress towards implementing their policy. Few financial institutions recognise the human rights risks linked to deforestation” (S. 5/6).

Komplexe Klima-Allokationen: Portfolio Construction with Climate Risk Measures von Theo Le Guenedal und Thierry Roncalli vom 20. Januar 2022 (#155): “Some years ago, carbon emissions and intensity were the two main climate risk measures. … Since 2018, we have observed major development of new climate risk metrics. For example, one of the main challenges is to define carbon transition pathways. … First, decarbonization is more difficult when we consider scope 3 carbon emissions. This is a big issue because asset owners and managers are encouraged by regulators and the society to go beyond scope 1 + 2. Second, portfolio alignment requires new metrics that are more difficult to estimate, implying more uncertainties about the portfolio solution” (S. 41). Mein Kommentar: Nachhaltige Allokation geht auch einfacher, siehe Soehnholz ESG 2021: Passive Allokationsportfolios und Deutsche ESG Aktien besonders gut – Verantwortungsvolle (ESG) Geldanlage (prof-soehnholz.com)

Enttäuschende Stimmrechtsausübungen: Net-Zero Asset Owner Alliance (NZAOA) Climate Voting Transparency and Benchmarking Report von Theodor Cojoianu, Andreas Hoepner, Yanan Lin, Kate van der Merve und Anh Vu vom Dezember 2021: “… out of the 46 asset owners that make up the NZAOA … only 13 asset owners directly exercise their share voting rights on climate related shareholder proposals. … our case studies suggest inconsistent voting behaviour by NZAOA members when it comes to supporting ambitious climate resolutions that call for Paris-aligned strategies. For example, during the 2021 AGM at Royal Dutch Shell, only three out of the nine observed NZAOA members voted for the independent shareholder resolution that required Shell to set quantitative targets to reduce its emissions in line with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees, while voting against management’s Say on Climate proposal” (S. 5/6). Mein Kommentar: Vgl. Divestments bewirken mehr als Stimmrechtsausübungen oder Engagement | SpringerLink

Anti-Greenwashingtool (in eigener Sache): Greenwashing und die Grenzen zur seriösen Nachhaltigkeit von Dirk Söhnholz in Banking News vom 13. Januar 2022: „Anbieter von Geldanlagen sollten das Risiko von Greenwashing- und Impactwashing-Vorwürfen keinesfalls unterschätzen. Sie können diesen vorbeugen, indem sie ihre eigene Nachhaltigkeitspolitik möglichst klar definieren. Zusätzlich sollten sie möglichst viele nachhaltigkeitsrelevante Informationen für ihre Produkte veröffentlichen. Dafür können zum Beispiel die kostenlosen Nachhaltigkeitsprofile des Forums Nachhaltige Geldanlagen genutzt werden.
Allerdings sollten Anleger und ihre Schützer auch nichts Unmögliches fordern: Kein Geldanlageprodukt ist für alle Anleger perfekt nachhaltig. Produkte, die zumindest etwas nachhaltiger sind als ihre Vorläufer oder Wettbewerber, sind immer noch besser als „business as usual““.

Grüne Kenntnisdefizite: Sustainable Finance Literacy and the Determinants of Sustainable Investing von Massimo Filippini, Markus Leippold und Tobias Wekhof vom 5. Januar 2022 (#254): “This paper introduces the concept of sustainable finance literacy, which refers to retail investors’ knowledge of regulations, norms, and standards for financial products with sustainable characteristics. … We find that Swiss households, which typically show high financial literacy by international standards, exhibit a low level of sustainable finance literacy. … despite its low level, sustainable finance literacy is a highly significant factor for sustainable product ownership” (abstract).

Investments generell

Retailanlegerstabilität: The Impact of Retail Investors on Stock Liquidity and Crash Risk von Felix Hüfner und Jan-Oliver Strych vom 17. Dezember 2021 (#164): “The literature points out that retail investors, unlike institutional investors, are not subject to the problems of funding constraints in times of financial markets turmoils. Consistently, we find that stocks more likely held by retail investors exhibit higher liquidity and lower price crash risk during the COVID-19 pandemic” (S. 19/20).

Low-Vola Anomalie: Preferences for maximum daily returns: Evidence from a discrete choice experiment von Maren Baars und Hannes Mohrschladt vom 14. Dezember 2021 (#96): “It is commonly assumed that individual investors are attracted to stocks with high maximum daily returns (MAX) because they overweight low probabilities for large gains. This paper presents results from a discrete choice experiment that does not support a general preference for high-MAX stocks. When choosing between two stocks based on historical real-world returns, subjects systematically prefer low-MAX stocks” (abstract).

Immobilienfondskritik: Offene Immobilienfonds – Illusion und Wirklichkeit von Gerd Kommer und Felix Großmann vom 7. Januar 2022: „In diesem Beitrag zeigen wir, dass Offene Immobilienfonds in Wirklichkeit, ganz gewiss kein „begrenztes Risiko“ haben und ihre Renditen eher unattraktiv sind. Zusätzlich gehen wir der Frage nach, warum Offene Immobilienfonds, trotz ihrer wenig vorzeigbaren Renditen, bei deutschen Privatanlegern so beliebt sind“. Mein Kommentar: Es geht auch anders, vgl. Erstes konsequent verantwortungsvolles ESG-Portfolio aus Immobilienaktien – Verantwortungsvolle (ESG) Geldanlage (prof-soehnholz.com)

Gold, FX und Aktien: Is Gold a Safe Haven in all Currencies? von Dirk Baur vom 18. November 2021 (#62): “The results show that gold is a safe haven for local investors in more than 60 markets and countries. … the safe haven effect is negatively related to the value of the local currency implying that a fall in the value of the local currency enhances the safe haven effect. … currency changes are more persistent and longer-lived than the rather short-lived “pure” safe haven effect which implies that the combined effect can be longer than the usual 10 – 15 days … markets with large currency depreciations tend to have larger stock market losses than markets with small currency depreciations. This finding suggests that capital outflows are a key determinant of the enhanced safe haven effect” (S. 9).

Negative Lokalbankkredite: Growing Like Germany: Local Public Debt, Local Banks, Low Private Investment von Mathias Hoffmann, Iryna Stewen und Michael Stiefel vom 14. Januar 2022 (#45): “Using a firm-bank panel of more than 1m German firms over 2010-2016, we document that local public bank lending to municipalities crowds out private investment. Our results show how crowding out can happen in a developed economy characterized by low interest rates and fiscal austerity. Our mechanism relies on two structural features of Germany’s banking landscape: First, the geographical segmentation of credit markets for small and medium firms (SME) which are dominated by local banks. Second, a special statutory mandate requiring local public banks to lend to municipalities. With yields on local government debt declining to all-time lows, local public banks tried to alleviate stress on their balance sheets by using their local market power to charge higher rates on their SME customers. This crowded out firm investment. Perversely, fiscal consolidation at the state and federal levels contributed to this effect by putting pressure on the budgets of municipal governments which increasingly borrowed from local public banks. Crowding out lowered aggregate private investment by around 30-40 bio euros per year (or 1 percent of GDP)“ (abstract).

Schlechte Private Equity Effekte: Private Equity and Financial Adviser Misconduct von Albert Sheen, Youchang Wu und Yuwen Yuan vom 30. Dezember 2021 (#301): “We show that while PE tends to choose advisory firms with less misconduct as buyout targets, there is a sharp increase in adviser misconduct measured both at the adviser and the firm levels after the PE takeover. As a result, although the misconduct intensity of the acquired firms is only about 40% of the industry average before the buyout, it becomes on par with the industry average after the buyout. Regulatory misconduct and customer disputes are the two types of misconduct that drive the the post-buyout increase in misconduct. Further analysis … shows that 89% of the increase in misconduct probability and 50% of the increase in the misconduct incident count at the adviser level are due to behavioral changes of advisers who have worked in the acquired firm both before and after the buyout. The post-buyout increase in misconduct is more significant in firms with high growth in assets under management per adviser after the buyout, and it is concentrated in firms whose clients include retail customers” (S. 25/26).

Positive Payments for Orderflow: Do Investors Save When Market Makers Pay? Retail Execution Costs Under Payment for Order Flow Models von Samuel Adams, Connor Kasten und Eric K. Kelley vom 6. Dezember 2021 (#76): “Retail brokerage firms often route their clients’ marketable orders to wholesale market makers in exchange for rebates of a few cents per hundred shares. These payment for order flow arrangements create a conflict of interest for the brokerage firms who must balance their own profit motives with their “best execution” duties to their clients. … Our key finding that these trades generally receive cheaper executions than comparable exchange trades—both before and after the shift to zero trading commissions—informs the current debate. Our execution cost estimates suggest that, if anything, the shift to zero commissions helped retail investors” (S. 29).

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