Evidence Based Investment Analysis

Genderthemen und mehr Research

Genderthemen und Umfeld

Geo-Ökonomie: 3 interessante Geo-Economics Kapitel von Joachim Klement vom 24. Februar 2021: The Geopolitics of Renewable EnergyData—The Oil of the 21st Century und The Rivalry between the United States and China

Starke Veränderung börsennotierter Unternehmen: Have exchange-listed firms become less important for the economy? von Frederik Schlingemann und René Stulz vom 22. Februar 2021: “We find that stock market firms as a group contribute less to employment and to GDP than in the 1970s. … the decline in contribution to GDP is less than the decline in contribution to employment … In the 1970s, employment explains 50.7% on average of the variation in market capitalization across firms. In the 2010s, it explains 21.8% on average … A large fraction of the employees of manufacturing firms work for public firms. A small fraction of employees of service firms work for public firms. As a result, as service sectors grow and manufacturing falls, the fraction of employees working for public firms falls (S. 36/37).

Positive Effekte von mehr AR-Frauen? Gender diversity in corporate boards: Evidence from quota-implied discontinuities von Olga Kuzmina und Valentina Melentyeva vom 15. Oktober 2020: we explore the effects of increased female presense in corporate boards … we find no evidence of a negative effect on the value of the company …, if any the evidence shows that it is positive … these firms might have in fact scaled down their inefficient operations, consistent with evidence on women being less prone to empire building” (S. 23/24). Mein Kommentar: Wir haben 2014 festegestellt, dass höhere Frauenanteile im Aufsichtsrat für Anleger vorteilhaft sein können, vgl. Fetsun, A. und Söhnholz, D. (2014): A quantitative approach to responsible investment: Using ESG multifactor models to improve equity portfolios, Veritas Investment Arbeitspapier, präsentiert auf der PRI Academic Network Conference in Montreal, 23.9., vgl. hier.

Traditionelle Investments

Weniger Immobilien und mehr Aktien: Homeownership and portfolio choice over the generations von Gonzalo Paz-Pardo von der European Central Bank vom 5. März 2021: “Earnings are riskier and more unequal for households born in the 1960s and 1980s than for those born in the 1940s. Despite the improvements in financial conditions, younger generations are less likely to be living in their own homes than older generations at the same age. … I show that changes in earnings dynamics account for a large part of the reduction in homeownership across generations. Lower-income households find it harder to buy housing, and as a result accumulate less wealth (Abstract). … there has been a secular increase in household earnings inequality and risk, together with substantial reductions in homeownership and an increase in stock market participation” (S. 36).

Lieber keine Bankaktien kaufen? Investing in Crises von Matthew Baron, Luc Laeven, Julien Pénasse und Yevhenii Usenko vom 8. März 2021: “We investigate asset returns around banking crises in 44 advanced and emerging economies from 1960 to 2018. In contrast to the view that buying assets during banking crises is a profitable long-run strategy, we find returns of equity and other asset classes generally underperform after banking crises. While prices are depressed during crises and partially recover after acute stress ends, consistent with theories of fire sales and intermediary-based asset pricing, we argue that investors do not fully anticipate the consequences of debt overhang, which result in lower long-run dividends. Our results on bank stock underperformance suggest that government-funded bank recapitalizations can often lead to substantial taxpayer losses”.

Kritik an Kosowski, Fama und French: Luck versus Skill in the Cross-Section of Mutual Fund Returns: Reexamining the Evidence von Campbell Harvey und Yan Liu vom 7. Dezember 2020: “Both Kosowski et al. (2006) and Fama and French (2010) evaluate whether mutual funds outperform, but their conclusions are very different. We reconcile their findings. We show that the Fama and French method suffers from an undersampling problem that leads to a failure to reject the null hypothesis of zero alpha, even when some funds generate economically large risk-adjusted returns. In contrast, Kosowski et al. substantially over reject the null hypothesis, even when all funds have a zero alpha. We present a novel bootstrapping approach that should be useful to future researchers who are choosing between the two approaches” (abstract). Mein Kommentar: Faktorallokation ist konzeptionell und operationell schwierig, Faktoranalysen sind aber wichtig – Verantwortungsvolle (ESG) Geldanlage (prof-soehnholz.com)

Genderthemen und Alternative Investments

Private Equity Quant Analyse: Private Portfolio Attribution Analysis von Gregory Brown, Frank Ethridge, Tyler Johnson und Tom Keck vom 20. November 2020: “In this paper, we propose a method for providing attribution analysis to a portfolio of closed-end drawn-down funds such as private equity buyout funds and venture capital funds. Our method is intuitive in isolating performance attributes related to fund strategy, fund geography, commitment timing, and commitment sizing” (S. 19).

Positive Venture Capital Einflüsse? The Impact of Venture Capital Holding on the Firms’ Life-cycle: Evidence from IPO Firms von Shima Amini, Abdul Mohamed, Armin Schwienbacher und Nicholas Wilson vom 14. Oktober 2020: “This paper shows that VC ownership beyond the IPO listing impacts important consequential, corporate decisions in a firm’s lifetime. In particular, we find that VC firms delay the time to initiate dividends, the use of external growth strategies (through acquisitions), and the introduction to the corporate bond market, while accelerates seasoned equity offerings. These different results are consistent with the firms’ financial life-cycle explanation. Moreover, we show that the presence of VC firms at DI leads to a positive abnormal stock market reaction, suggesting that their presence can alleviate the negative market response of DI” (S. 22/23).

Harsche VC Kritik: Wagniskapital – Innovation von den Wenigen für die Wenigen von Franziska Cooiman vom 10. März 2021: „… Finanzintermediäre bringen jedoch ganz eigene Logiken mit sich: Fokus auf Startups mit dem Potenzial für exponentielles Wachstum, Privatisierung der Gewinne, Vergemeinschaftung der Risiken, Strukturelle Macht einiger weniger Investoren“.

Crowdnachteile für VC-Frauen: Gender in Start-up Financing: Evidence from Equity Crowdfunding von Thomas Hellmann, Ilona Mostipan und Nir Vulkan vom 11. März 2021: “We find that female teams ask for less money, have the same probability of campaign success, but end up raising less money. Interestingly, they also hold out for money longer before closing their campaigns. This suggests that even if they ask for less, they actually may want more funding” (S. 32).

ICO-Hype ist wichtiger als Content: Inform or Endorse? Twitter and the Post Initial Coin Offering Token Performance von TheVinh Truong und Andrea Moro vom ……..: “Our research explores the link between tokens post Initial Coin Offering (ICO) market performance … and the role of social media activity (namely Twitter) … Results show that twitter has mainly an endorsement role: the activity in terms of likes, replies and retweets (endorsement of the project) is associated to higher returns, higher average volume traded per day and lower return’s volatility; the activity linked to original tweets and tweets with quotes, weblinks, images and videos (information dissemination) has a very much marginal effect on post ICO tokens’ market performance” (abstract).

Pros- und Cons von Cryptoassets: The Guide to Bitcoin, Blockchain, and Cryptocurrency for Investment Professionals von Matt Hougan und David Lawant von der CFA Institute Research Foundation vom 7. Januar 2021: “Blockchain databases are not as fast as traditional databases, they do not scale as well, they are more challenging to regulate, AML and KYC protections are difficult to enforce, system upgrades and payment protections are challenging to implement, and so on … The emergence of a new asset class and financial ecosystem is a rare event, and the potential for cryptoasset-powered blockchains to move the world forward is exciting” (S. 53/54).

Individualisten kaufen Bitcoins: Who buys Bitcoin? The Cultural Determinants of Bitcoin Usage von Sean Foley, Bart Frijns, Alexandre Garel GAREL und Tai-Yong Roh vom 2. März 2021: Using a novel measure of Bitcoin usage based on actual Bitcoin trades and location, we empirically document that cultural individualism is a robust determinant of the use of Bitcoin” (S. 23).

ESG Investments

Viel neues Geld für nicht-nachhaltige Firmen: Does Sustainable Investing Deprive Unsustainable Firms from Fresh Capital? Von David Blitz, Laurens Swinkels und Jan Anton van Zanten vom 23. Dezember 2020: “our empirical analysis of equity and bond issuance over the 2010-2019 period shows no evidence that fresh capital is flowing more towards sustainable than to unsustainable firms. More specifically, unsustainable firms appear to have had no problems in securing funding in public markets. … However, we acknowledge that our results do not disprove the possibility that unsustainable firms would have been able to raise even more capital in the absence of sustainable investing” (S. 12). Mein Kommentar: Zusätzlich müsste untersucht werden, ob sich die Finanzierungskosten unterscheiden.

ESG-Anleihen sind gut für Banken: Higher Value, Lower Risk: ESG Finance Moves to the Banking Mainstream von Christian Graf, Michael Jongeneel und Umberto Mona von Bain & Co. von 2021: “Loans and bonds linked to ESG projects are soaring. … Banks pursuing this business may have higher costs of diligence and reporting, but those are offset by a lower cost of risk—32% lower over five years in Bain’s new analysis of European banks. Evidence is mounting that sustainable finance does not hurt the return on assets for banks, and it earns stronger customer loyalty” (S. 1).

Grüne Fonds können von Katastrophen profitieren: Salient Climate Information and Mutual Fund Flows: A Note von Ben Marshall, Hung T. Nguyen, Nhut H. Nguyen, Nuttawat Visaltanachoti und Martin Young vom 18. November 2020: “We find abnormally large inflows into green funds headquartered in states impacted by climate disasters. The relation between climate disasters and green fund inflows is stronger when greater asset damage is caused by climate disaster” (S. 14).

Ist Impact (auch) in Krisen gut? Socially Responsible Investing Strategies under Pressure: Evidence from Covid-19 von Gunther Capelle-Blancard, Adrien Desroziers und Olivier David Zerbib vom …….: on average, SR indices were not spared from large market downturns during the Covid-19 pandemic, nor did they disproportionally benefit from market rallies. … except for the SR impact indices, the other SR strategies did not outperform their conventional benchmarks. The findings of this study should prompt sustainable investors to rigorously select their SR investment vehicles, and arm them with knowledge that impact funds may offer greater resilience in times of crisis” (S. 25). Mein Kommentar: Vgl. Impact ETF Portfolio +18% in 2020 – Verantwortungsvolle (ESG) Geldanlage (prof-soehnholz.com).

Purpose macht stabiler: Higher Purpose, Banking and Stability von Stuart Bunderson und Anjan Thakor vom 24. Februar 2021: “recent survey data … indicates that individuals who work in organizations that have written statements of higher purpose are happier and trust their leaders to not only be more socially responsible but also to make better business decisions. … the bank pursuing a higher purpose experiences a lower failure probability with higher capital – an effect generated via optimal labor contracting – has regulatory policy and stability implications of potentially considerable import. … culture is not the same thing as purpose. Purpose is the why and culture is the how.” (S. 33/34). Mein Kommentar: Meinen Purpose fidnet man bei “Über uns“ auf Diversifikator

Genderthemen, Fintech und Behavioral Finance

Oldies als Fintech-Treiber? The Rise of Fintech: A Cross-Country Perspective von Oskar Kowalewski und Paweł Pisany vom 7. Juli 2020: “Using data for 50 countries, we confirm the vital positive role of the availability of financing for the fintech sector … Moreover, we document the positive role of mobile phones and fixed broadband subscriptions … More importantly, however, we show that the quality of research, and particularly universityindustry collaboration, can contribute to the formation of innovative financial companies. …. Our results also show that regulatory factors are important. … Lastly, we show that, in general, a young demographic structure supports the fintech company formation process. However … In developed countries, we find that an older population is positively related to the development of fintech companies” (S. 16/17).

Home Bias ist teuer: Home Bias and Expected Returns: A Structural Approach von Martin Wallmeier und Christoph Iseli vom 25. Februar 2021: “The overall strength of the home bias has decreased over time but is still substantial. … The stronger the country-specific home bias is, the lower the expected return of the country asset” (S. 35/36).

Andere Langlebigkeitsinfos führen zu anderen Geldanlagen: Testing Methods to Enhance Longevity Awareness Abigail Hurwitz, Olivia Mitchell und Orly Sade vom 12. März 2021: “we show that providing people information about their likely longevity does change peoples’ perceptions, while giving them life expectancy information has no effect. This suggests that individuals are already aware of their mean survival expectation, but they are less informed about the tails of the survival distribution. … providing pessimistic people with either life expectancy or longevity information significantly influences their financial recommendations regarding annuitization” (S. 16/17).

Zu viel Selbstvertrauen? Beliefs about Beta: Upside Participation and Downside Protection von Christoph Merkle und Michael Ungeheuer vom 1. März 2021: “Retail investors in the large online experiment we conduct believe that selecting a stock portfolio from the market index is a task they are competent in. They on average expect to beat the market in terms of expected return and risk, even though investment opportunities are limited to thirty highly liquid, large-firm stocks and there are no opportunities for further portfolio management. … As there is little evidence of true skill, but participants rather select stocks from firms they know and presumably like, we interpret this result as overconfidence. … participants grossly underestimate beta and thus dependence of their portfolios on the market” (S. 28/29).

Brauchen Frauen mehr Selbstvertrauen? Fearless Woman: Financial Literacy and Stock Market Participation von Tabea Bucher-Koenen, Rob Alessie, Annamaria Lusardi und Maarten van Rooij vom 5. März 2021: “when it comes to financial literacy, women know less than men, but they know more than they think they know … more than one-third of the gender gap in financial knowledge can be attributed to differences in confidence and the remainder to true knowledge differences (S. 27).

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