Fußballresearch und Umwelt und Politik
Macht Corona Fussball gerechter? Home Bias in Ghost Games von Alexander Dilger und Lars Vischer vom Juli 2020: “… we were able to show the disappearance of the home bias in ghost games and show one reason for this, the changed behaviour of referees who lost their bias for the home team without spectators.” (S. 19, bezogen auf die Deutsche Fussballbundesliga).
Erstaunlich einheitliche Ansichten von Volkswirten: Gauging Economic Consensus on Climate Change von Peter Howard und Derek Sylvan vom 21. März 2021: “To our knowledge, this is the largest-ever expert survey on the economics of climate change. The results show an overwhelming consensus that the costs of inaction on climate change are higher than the costs of action, and that immediate, aggressive emissions reductions are economically desirable. Respondents expressed striking levels of concern about climate impacts; estimated major climate-related GDP losses and a reduction in long-term economic growth; and predicted that climate impacts will exacerbate economic inequality both between countries and within most countries. The economists surveyed also expressed optimism about the viability and affordability of many zero-emissions technologies. And they widely agreed that aggressive targets to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century were likely to be cost-benefit justified” (S. i).
Detaillierter Corona + Klima Politikrat: What Policies Address Both the Coronavirus Crisis and the Climate Crisis? von Gustav Engström, Johan Gars, Niko Jaakkola, Therese Lindahl, Daniel Spiro und Arthur van Benthem vom 23. Juni 2020: “We have above identified a set of policies that would help in tackling both the coronavirus crisis and climate change. The most effective policies involve revenue-neutral tax reforms towards carbon pricing, which would be excellent climate policies and also help deal with the coronavirus crisis by allowing reductions to labor taxes. Subsidizing temporary employment in less emissions-intensive industries (services sectors including leisure services like restaurants and culture; or professional services like technology, education, and healthcare) can help laid-off workers try out occupations that have potential even under tougher climate policies. Labor-intensive investments into natural capital (tree planting) and into low-carbon physical capital can both support employment and incomes, while storing carbon or helping societies transition towards a low-carbon future. Health and climate goals can also be achieved by promoting transport methods which not only reduce carbon emissions, but local pollutants too, improving cardiovascular health. All sectoral aid should be conditioned on being directed towards employment and on low-carbon supply chains” (S. 19).
Emissionshandel kann funktionieren: What Can We Learn from EU ETS? Von Herman Vollebergh und Corjan Brink vom 24. April 2020: “With its clear reduction pathway for CO2 emissions up to 2030 and beyond, EU ETS provides firms a clear and credible incentive to reduce emissions. … While allowing participants to also trade their allowances, the system provides a cost-efficient way of reducing GHGs from a variety of large sources. Empirical studies confirm that EU ETS has contributed to emission reductions as well as innovation in low-carbon technologies even when the carbon price was relatively modest. ….” (S. 11). Mein Kommentar: Siehe meine Vorschläge zum Handel von Externe Effekte Zertifikaten hier ESG Boni abschaffen und mehr radikale Vorschläge – Verantwortungsvolle (ESG) Geldanlage (prof-soehnholz.com)
Biodiversität ist messbar: Assessment of Biodiversity Measurement Approaches for Business and Financial Institutions –Update Report 3 von der EU Biodiversity Platform vom März 2021: “It offers a ‘Fast Track’ approach as it allows for considering multiple criteria at once; It relies on easy-to-use overview tables full of information on how tools can be differentiated on specific criteria; It brings in new selection criteria such as information on accessibility, costs and efforts and the maturity level of tools based on the application frequency for specific business contexts; It explicitly highlights the possibility to combine different approaches and metrics, It acknowledges the different perspective of the financial sector and made a start with an adapted version for that sector; It covers 19 biodiversity measurement approaches; and, last but not least, it has been built based on (updated) information from tool developers and on the thorough review of 16 quality reviewed and well elaborated case studies.”
Diskriminierung ist schlecht für Diskriminierer: How Costly Are Cultural Biases? Von Francesco D’Acunto, Pulak Ghosh, Rajiv Jainund Alberto Rossi vom 10. März 2021: “We detect evidence that both in-group vs. out-group discrimination and stereotypical discrimination are prevalent and economically sizable in a large-stakes lending-decision setting. …. discriminating individuals … finance loans by borrowers who perform worse than other discriminated borrowers available on the lending platform” (S. 40).
Lieber Öl oder lieber Pension? Pensionskassen auf fossilem Crashkurs – Klimabedingt droht Rentenverlust bis zu 32 Prozent von der Klima-Allianz Schweiz vom ….: „Ziehen Pensionskassen ihre Investitionen nicht aus fossilen Energien und Industrien mit grossem CO2-Ausstoss zurück, droht ein Rentenkollaps. Laut der vorliegenden Studie müssen Schweizer Pensionskassen im Durchschnitt mit einem Verlust 10% auf ihrem Vermögen innert 15 Jahren rechnen“ … Daraus lässt sich der Rückgang der Renten errechnen: Dieser beträgt zwischen 18% und 32%. Die Einbußen gehen zu Lasten der heute im Durchschnitt unter 50-Jährigen, die ab 2035 in Rente gehen. … Blauäugig auf eine Wirkung des Aktionärsdialoges (Investor‘s Engagement) zu zählen, kann ebenfalls zur Folge haben, dass Wertverluste eintreten. … Pensionskassen-Verantwortliche haben laut Schweizerischem Recht eine treuhänderische Sorgfaltspflicht. Wollen sie diese gegenüber ihren Versicherten erfüllen, müssen sie Klimarisiken berücksichtigen. Sonst können sie unter Umständen sogar angeklagt werden“ (S. 3/4). Mein Kommentar: Vgl. Divestments bewirken mehr als Stimmrechtsausübungen oder Engagement (S. 143-164)
Blackrocks Argumente für einen Komplettausstieg aus Öl: Investment and Fiduciary Analysis for Potential Fossil Fuel Divestment – Phase Three Identification, Analysis and Evaluation of Prudent Strategies von Blackrock und von Meketa in der Zusammenfassung von Tom Sanzillo von der IEEFA vom März 2021: “Several of their core findings are noteworthy: Divestment actions by hundreds of funds worldwide have passed the prudence tests required of fiduciaries. Fossil fuel stocks have underperformed for the last five years and forward-looking analysis shows they are exposed to significant regulatory, technological and market risks. … They include an extensive treatment of how other funds of varying sizes and missions have arrived at the decision to divest. They discuss what policies these funds adopted, the timing and any other steps needed for implementation. Questions of fiduciary obligation, costs, post-divestment performance assessment, adoption of climate action plans and investments in renewable energy are all addressed. They contain several research products that add to the literature on investment theory and climate change, corporate finance and the dynamics of introducing sustainability standards into the traditional fiduciary model”. Mein Kommentar: Blackrock sollte das für alle seine Portfolios prüfen und dann wohl nicht mehr 25% Umsatz mit Kohle bzw. fossilen Energien zulassen.
ESG und Kapitalkosten als offenes Thema: Does sustainability reduce the cost of capital? Von Alex Edmans vom 17 März 2021: „There is no consensus that sustainable companies have a lower cost of equity. … If sustainability did reduce the cost of capital, then sustainable companies should produce lower returns going forward. … If sustainability reduces the cost of capital, then sustainable companies are counter-cyclical. This suggests that sustainability is not as important in good times. … wealthier investors are less risk-averse. Thus, the largest investors (such as sovereign wealth funds), with the greatest potential to hold companies to account for embedding sustainability, may be the least concerned with systemic risk”.
ESG Rankings sind gut für Portfolioentwicklungen: ESG controversies and controversial ESG: About silent saints and small sinners von Gregor Dorfleitner, Christian Kreuzer und Christian Sparrer vom 3. August 2020: In this paper, we examine a dataset that includes over 4700 companies and the associated TR, controversies and combined scores in the Thomson Reuters Eikon universe in the investigation period from 2002 to 2018. … we discover new potential in the rank-weighted strategy for investors, which leads to improvements in terms of both, alpha and level of signifcance, within most of the investigated portfolios. For investors who attach great importance to ESG ratings, this represents an enormous opportunity to reward better scoring placements of companies and additionally to gain higher returns” (S. 410). Mein Kommentar: Schade, dass nur aggregierte ESG Scores genutzt werden. Ich habe mit Portfolios basierend auf sehr strengen separaten Scores sehr gute Erfahrungen gemacht vgl. Q1 ESG: Pure globale Aktien ESG Portfolios mit besonders guter Performance – Verantwortungsvolle (ESG) Geldanlage (prof-soehnholz.com)
Das FNG Siegel kann noch besser werden: A Comparative Study of European Sustainable Finance Labels von K. Megaeva, P.J. Engelen und L. Van Liedekerke vom 1. Januar 2021: “This comparative study offers a detailed overview of nine major SRI labels in Europe and compares them on a relative basis along different dimensions of sustainability”.
Best Practices: Point of No Returns Part V – Leading Practice A guide to current leading practices by asset managers on responsible investment von ShareAction vom März 2021: “In this guide, we have presented what ShareAction observes to be leading practice across the themes included in our 2020 Point of No Returns survey, as well as provided case studies of asset managers implementing leading practice. … However, it is clear that current leading practice is still a world away from what is needed of the sector to meet the challenges presented by the systemic risks considered in this report. … we have included next steps throughout this report, so that leading practice continues to increase in ambition …” (S. 52).
SDG Literaturüberblick: Towards nexus-based governance: defining interactions between economic activities and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) von Jan Anton van Zanten und Rob van Tulder von Robeco vom 25. Mai 2020: “This study conducted a systematic literature review in order to map the nexus between unique economic activities and sustainable development … we show that virtually all types of economic activities are associated with negative externalities. The positive and negative interactions between detailed economic activities and SDG targets were summarised per activity”. Mein Kommentar: Vgl. SDG ETF-Portfolio: Innovativer Megatrendansatz mit guter Performance – Verantwortungsvolle (ESG) Geldanlage (prof-soehnholz.com)
Literaturüberblick zeigt, dass Investor Impact noch gering ist: Can Sustainable Investing Save the World? Reviewing the Mechanisms of Investor Impact Julian. Kölbel, Florian Heeb, Falko Paetzold und Timo Busch vom 10. September 2020: “that both in research and practice the notion of investor impact is neglected, and conduct a literature review on the mechanisms of investor impact. We conclude that shareholder engagement is a relatively reliable mechanism. Capital allocation can either accelerate the growth of companies, or incentivize companies to implement ESG practices, but there remain gaps in the evidence. Indirect impacts remain unproven regarding their effectiveness. Our results suggest that the current practice of SI has only a modest investor impact, and call for the development of investor impact metrics that reflect the contribution of SI to societal goals” (570).
ESG + SDG ist der seltene Königsweg: The sustainability impact of popular passive ESG funds von Impact Cube vom 15. März 2021: “Some passive ESG funds actually have an overall negative impact, with ESG performance varying four-fold between the ‘best’ and ‘worst’. … the market benchmark has more exposure to environmental solutions than most of the passive ESG funds we analyzed … Passive funds … should disclose their impact if they want to avoid misinterpretations about being an ESG fund. The lack of attention to companies’ products and services is big source of investor confusion about ESG funds” (S. 3). Mein Kommentar: Die von Diversiffkator genutzten SRI ETFs schneiden ziemlich gut ab und die Global Equities ESG SDG Fonds habe ich genau deshalb schon im Jahr 2017 entwickelt vgl. ESG SDG: Sehr konsequente Aktienportfolios – Verantwortungsvolle (ESG) Geldanlage (prof-soehnholz.com)
Ist Erfahrung schlecht für Aktivisten? Persistence of Activist Short-Sellers’ Performance von Danqi Hu und Beverly Walther vom 19. März: “… we investigate whether performance persistence varies with activists’ tenure. … we find that performance persistence is higher in the early years and declines as tenure increases, even after we correct for survivorship bias”.
Hoher Impact von IT/Telco-Infrastruktur: Overcoming Michigan’s Homework Gap: The Role of Broadband Internet Connectivity for Student Success and Career Outlooks von Johannes Bauer, Keith Hampton, Laleah Fernandez und Craig Robertson vom 20. Oktober 2020: “Disparities in home Internet access affect the ability of … students to complete homework. … However, lack of broadband connectivity has additional repercussions for student educational outcomes … that have received less attention. Most important, variations in broadband access are associated with different levels of digital skills, career orientation, and student interest in post-secondary education. Digital skills and post-secondary education are increasingly important for success in existing and emerging occupations. The mitigation of the disadvantages associated with insufficient and lack of broadband access is an urgent and important investment in the future” (S. 4). Mein Kommentar: In meinen SDG bzw. Impactportfolios nutze ich seit Langem auch Telekom- und IT-Infrastrukturanbieter und Spezialisten für Cloud- und Cyber-Security Services. Etliche ESG bzw. SDG Ratinganbieter sehen das anders.
Fußballresearch: Traditionelle Investments und Fintech
Lohnen sich geschlossene Immobilienfonds nicht? Open- vs. Closed-End Real Estate Funds: How the Choice Mattered von Bryan Reid, Luis O’Shea und Bert Teuben von Burgiss und MSCI vom 30. März 2021: “The annualized time-weighted total return for closed-end funds over this period was 3.2% — and 4.0% for open-end funds. … The results varied considerably across individual funds over the study period, but the pooled performance of all the closed-end funds across the 2008 to 2020 vintages yields a KS-PME of 1.08 and a direct alpha of 2.6%, suggesting that closed-end funds outperformed on a money-weighted basis” (Periode 2008-2020). Mein Kommentar: Vgl. Konzept und Performance meines ESG Immobilienaktienportfolis
Effektive Finanzbildung: Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment von Christine Laudenbach, Annika Weber, Johannes Wohlfart vom 31. März 2021: “We conduct an experiment on a sample of retail investors at a German online bank to study beliefs about the autocorrelation of annual returns of the aggregate stock market and the causal effect of these beliefs on investment decisions. Beliefs about the autocorrelation of returns are significantly related to the timing of investors’ trading decisions and changes in the equity share over the five years before our survey. Our respondents significantly reduce their beliefs about the autocorrelation of aggregate returns in response to information about the historically low degree of predictability of the stock market based on recent returns. … our results highlight that simple debiasing treatments can persistently change beliefs and affect decision-making months later, opening up a possibility for low-cost financial education interventions to correct investment mistakes” (S. 29/30).
Bessere Renditen für Online-Banker: Online Banking Users vs. Branch Visitors: Why Are Their Portfolio Returns Different? von Mamoru Nagano und Yuki Uchida vom 22. März 2021: “… portfolio returns of online users exceeds those of bank branch visitors by 4.2–12.9 percent … this is because households that are eager to improve their level of financial literacy are more likely to use online banking. We also demonstrate that the household ratio of equities, investment and trust, and foreign currency denominated assets to total assets of online users exceed those of bank branch visitors by 14.0–24.1 percent” (S. 23).
Digital kann grün und sozial sein: Digital finance, green finance and social finance: is there a link? von Peterson Ozili vom 24. März 2021: “This paper suggests a link between digital finance, green finance and social finance. Using a simple conceptual model, I show that digital finance offers a smooth, efficient and seamless channel for individuals and corporations to fund social projects that deliver a social dividend, and green projects that promote a sustainable environment. The implication is that digital finance is both an enabler and a channel for efficient green financing and social financing” (abstract). Mein Kommentar: Vgl. Conscious Fintech? 5 Jahre Diversifikator – Verantwortungsvolle (ESG) Geldanlage (prof-soehnholz.com)
AI braucht Politik (und umgekehrt auch?): Harnessing artificial intelligence (AI) to increase wellbeing for all: The case for a new technology diplomacy Claudio Feijoo, Youngsun Kwon, Johannes M. Bauer, Erik Bohlin, Bronwyn Howell, Rekha Jain, Petrus Potgieter, Khuong Vu, Jason Whalley und Jun Xia vom 8. Dezember 2020: “AI promises tremendous benefits for humanity that will affect nearly all areas of work and daily life. … At the same time, AI also offers many opportunities for abuse. … Tech-nationalism, protectionism, and dysfunctional fragmentation might undermine the benefits AI can bring while increasing the risk of abuse by state and non-state players. We believe that a new technology diplomacy … is needed to weave the many existing initiatives into a broader narrative” (S. 11/12).