Umwelt und soziales Umfeld
Frauenfreundliche Roboter?: Robots, Marriageable Men, Family, and Fertility von Massimo Anelli, Osea Giuntella und Luca Stella vom 1. November 2021 (#22): “This study estimates the impact of exposure to industrial robots on life-course choices, such as marriage, divorce, cohabitation, and fertility. In areas that were more exposed to robot penetration, marriage rates decreased, while divorce rates and cohabitation increased. We then show that exposure to robots reduced marital fertility but increased nonmarital fertility. Looking at potential mechanisms, we show that robot penetration has different effects on the labor market opportunities of men and women, reducing the gender gap in income. Male income fell at a substantially higher rate than female income, decreasing the gender income gap. Moreover, robot exposure has increased female labor force participation significantly while leaving the labor force participation of men unchanged. … we argue that robots have both worsened the absolute economic stature of men as measured by their earning opportunities, and lowered the relative position of men on the marriage market. This, in turn, has contributed to reducing women’s willingness to long-term commitments, such as marrying” (S. 31/32).
Immigrationsproblemschutz: Does Labor Protection Increase Support for Immigration? Evidence from Switzerland von Mirjam Bächli und Teodora Tsankova vom 1. November (#11): “Our results show that support for looser immigration regulation of lower skilled natives declines as immigration rises. This negative effect is smaller under a higher level of labor protection. … Overall, our study suggests that labor protection affects vote outcomes by improving in addition other labor market conditions or by alleviating existing fears among the native population” (S. 20/21).
Bildungsopportunitäten: Ensuring Equal Access to education in future crises: Findings of the New Remote Learning Readiness Index von UNICEF vom 28. Oktober 2021: “Overall, countries with per capita gross national income (GNI) higher than US $10,000 tend to have average or above-average remote learning readiness. However, many countries with relatively low GNI managed to have an above-average score, opening the possibility for international cooperation and the exchange of best practices” (S. 5).
Heterogene Fridays for Future Aktivisten: Channeling environmentalism into climate policy: An experimental study of Fridays for Future participants from Germany von Ilkhom Soliev, Marco A. Janssen, Insa Theesfeld, Calvin Pritchard, Frauke Pirscher und Allen Lee vom 25. Oktober 2021 (#10): “… In November and December 2019, we collected responses from 119 participants at the Fridays for Future demonstrations in Germany. The results indicate that there are indeed important differences within the group, and nudging effects exist even in this rather strongly predisposed group, with participants assigned to the experimental group showing higher levels of support for the introduction of a carbon tax that is traditionally seen as a difficult policy to gain widespread public support. We find that those who score neither too high nor too low are more likely to respond to nudging. Yet, the effects vary for general outcomes such as policy support, behavioral intentions, and environmental citizenship” (abstract).
Agri-Food Emissionsanstieg: The share of agri-food systems in total greenhouse gas emissions – Global, regional and country trends 1990–2019 von der Food and Agriculture Organization der Vereinten Nationen von 2021: “In 2019, global anthropogenic emissions were 54 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq), of which 17 billion tonnes CO2eq, or 31 percent, came from agri-food systems. …Emissions from agri-food systems increased globally by 16 percent between 1990 and 2019, but their share in total emissions decreased, from 40 percent to 31 percent, as did the per capita emissions, from 2.7 to 2.1 tonnes CO2eq per capita” (S. 2).
Spieltheorie pro Öltransition: Revealing robust oil and gas company macro-strategies using deep multi-agent reinforcement learning von Dylan Radovic, Lucas Kruitwagen, Christian Schroeder de Witt, Ben Caldecott, Shane Tomlinson und Mark Workman vom 30. September 2021 (#12): “… we used deep multi-agent reinforcement learning to solve an energy systems wargame wherein players simulate IOC decision-making, including hydrocarbon and low-carbon investments decisions, dividend policies, and capital structure measures, through an uncertain energy transition to explore critical and non-linear governance questions, from leveraged transitions to reserve replacements. … In all games, robust strategies emerged in the form of low-carbon business models as a result of early transition-oriented movement. IOCs adopting such strategies outperformed business-as-usual and delayed transition strategies regardless of hydrocarbon demand projections” (abstract).
Industrielle Klimachance: Klimapfade 2.0. – Ein Wirtschaftsprogramm für Klima und Zukunft von der Boston Consultung Group für den BDI vom 21. Oktober 2021: „Das gesetzlich vereinbarte Klimaziel wird von Deutschland innerhalb der kommenden zwei Jahrzehnte einen nationalen Kraftakt erfordern. Die Autoren dieser Studie sind dennoch überzeugt, dass mit den richtigen politischen Entscheidungen der Weg zu diesem Ziel gelingen kann, ohne dabei Deutschlands Wirtschaftsstärke zu gefährden. Die anstehende Transformation eröffnet Deutschland neue Quellen für zukünftiges wirtschaftliches Wachstum. Die Abhängigkeit von Energieimporten nimmt deutlich ab. Außerdem können deutsche Exporteure Chancen in rasant wachsenden globalen Märkten für Klimaschutztechnologien erschließen, beispielsweise in der Erzeugung und Speicherung erneuerbaren Stromes, der Wasserstoffwirtschaft oder der Elektromobilität. Insgesamt bietet eine erfolgreich umgesetzte Klimawende eine historische Chance der Erneuerung unserer Gesellschaft, Infrastruktur und industriellen Basis und somit die Grundlage für ein erfolgreiches, klimaneutrales Industrieland im 21. Jahrhundert“ (S. 99/100).
Höhere Klimawandelkosten: Adaptation Gap Report 2021 -The Gathering Storm – Adapting to climate change in a post-pandemic world von UN Environment Programme et al vom 1. November 2021: “New estimates of the costs of adaptation and the estimated financial needs for adaptation from developing countries indicate higher values than previously reported. … The evidence suggests that the adaptation finance gap is larger than indicated in 2020 and widening. … while the stimulus packages for the COVID-19 recovery present a window of opportunity for green and resilient recoveries, these opportunities are not currently being seized” (S. xiv-xvi).
Kreislaufwirtschaftserklärung: Understanding the Circular Economy: Overview of the Issues von Gustavo Ferro vom 1. Oktober 2021 (#11): “In essence, circular economy means turning waste into something valuable. … Technology of Fourth Industrial Revolution helps to decoupling growth from resource use. … Business models comprehended in circular economy vary from eliminating waste, maximizing use extension of capital and durable consumption goods, until recovering materials and energy from process and products, turning goods into services by sharing, and replacing property by lease or pay-per-use models. Policies to induce or incentivize circular economy includes fiscal incentives through taxation and subsidization, command and control measures, and voluntary coordination efforts at the international level” (abstract).
Architektur muss sich dringend ändern: Building for Zero – The Grand Challenge of Architecture without Carbon von Ramon Elias Weber, Caitlin Mueller und Christoph Reinhart vom 4. November 2021 (#27): „… the “Business as usual” scenario will generate around 670 GtCO2. At this rate, the building industry would use up over two thirds of the global carbon budget, making the climate catastrophe inevitable. … The interactive model reveals the urgency of rapidly increasing renovation rates and implementing aggressive strategies for achieving NZEBs. Furthermore, they show the importance of taking embodied energy of buildings into account: compared to only net zero operations scenarios, a reduction of embodied emissions achieves substantial savings in carbon. According to our model, if we continue with current building retrofit rates and building-related policy to create carbon neutral buildings until 2050, this will result in a warming scenario between SSP-4 and SSP-5”.
ESG-Defizite: Nachhaltige Geldanlage
Fondsklimadefizite: Under 1% of $27 trillion global fund assets are Paris-aligned von CDP vom 27. Oktober 2021: “Analysis of a third of the total global fund industry reveals just 158 funds worth 0.5% of the total assets have a temperature pathway in line with the Paris agreement. Over 60% of all fund assets exposed as aligned with over 2.75°C of global warming”.
Greenwashing-Evidenz? Greenwashing in mutual funds von Markku Kaustia und Wenjia Yu vom 30. September 2021 (#169): “We first document that a self-designated ESG label helps mutual funds attract more flows than their non-ESG peers with otherwise similar characteristics. We show this happens even if labeling the fund as ESG is in conflict with Morningstar’s objective Globe ratings. … Funds attracting below average flows are more likely to be repurposed as ESG funds. We find no evidence that ESG-repurposing behavior improves flows or performance, at least in a short-term window after the repurposing event. … we empirically demonstrate that ESG-repurposing funds reduce their equity industry exposure in ESG-unfriendly industries, especially in Oil and Gas related industries”.
Grüner Boombeginn? Private Investors Must Commit as Much as Eight Times More to the Low-Carbon Economy von Wendi Backler, Paul Goydan, Patrick Herhold, Cornelius Pieper, Vinay Shandal, Ramya Sethurathinam und Rachit Sharma von der Boston Consulting Group vom 28. Oktober 2021: “As much as $21 trillion in new investment in both mature and newer low-carbon technologies will be needed over the next ten years (S. 2) … Helping to reach net-zero climate goals while profiting financially will require investing in often-untried, risky technologies” (S. 19).
Grüne Medienwirkung: A green wave in media, a change of tack in stock markets von Marie Bessec und Julien Fouqau vom 27. Oktober 2021 (#55): “Using a dictionary-based approach with a new environmental lexicon, we develop several measures of such media coverage and measures of its tonality and uncertainty. A clear result emerges for all indicators: greater coverage of environmental news has a strong adverse impact on the returns and volatility of brown indices, whereas the most virtuous green indices are positively affected” (S. 19).
Klimarisikomessung: Evolution of Climate-Related Disclosure Guidance and Application of Climate Risk Measurement in Research von Jonathan Jona und Naomi Soderstrom vom 25. Oktober 2021 (#51): “The chapter discusses use of different measures of climate risk in existing economics, accounting, and finance research and explores issues associated with how the measures affect interpretation of research results. The chapter concludes with an appraisal of current policy and practice and its future trajectory as well as suggestions of avenues for future academic research on climate risk” (abstract).
ESG-Datenvergleich: ESG-Datenanbieter im Check: Ein Anbieter allein reicht nicht aus – Ein Whitepaper der Cofinpro AG vom 28. Oktober 2021: „Speziell für Finanzdienstleister bieten Research-Spezialisten ein umfangreiches ESG-Dienstleistungsangebot mit vergleichenden Ratings, Scores und Risikoanalysen. Im Rahmen dieses Whitepapers haben wir elf Anbieter einem Vergleich unterzogen und gegenübergestellt. Wer bietet welche Daten, wie oft werden diese aktualisiert, wo liegen die Schwerpunkte? …. Für viele Anwendungszwecke reicht ein Datenanbieter allein nicht aus“ (S. 2) … Bei der Auswahl eines Datenanbieters müssen die verwendeten Standards zur Ermittlung des ESG-Scores bekannt sein und sollten mit den eigenen Vorstellungen für ESG-Kriterien abgeglichen werden (S. 9)“. Mein Kommentar: Ein unvollständiger Überblick (z.B. fehlt der von mir genutzte Anbieter Clarity.ai), aber trotzdem hilfreich
Impactquantifizierung: Quantifying the Impact of Impact Investing von Andrew W. Lo und Ruixun Zhang vom 18. Oktober 2021 (#354): “We propose a quantitative framework for assessing the financial impact of any form of impact investing, including socially responsible investing (SRI), environmental, social, and governance (ESG) objectives, and other non-financial investment criteria. We derive conditions under which impact investing detracts from, improves on, or is neutral to the performance of traditional mean-variance optimal portfolios, which depends on whether the correlations between the impact factor and unobserved excess returns are negative, positive, or zero, respectively. …. we propose a quantitative measure for the financial reward, or cost, of impact investing compared to passive index benchmarks. We illustrate our approach with applications to biotech venture philanthropy, divesting from “sin” stocks, investing in ESG, and “meme” stock rallies such as GameStop in 2021” (abstract). Mein Kommentar: Es geht auch ohne Pseudo-Optimierungen, vgl. Soehnholz ESG YTD Performance: Passive Asset-Allokation funktioniert sehr gut – Verantwortungsvolle (ESG) Geldanlage (prof-soehnholz.com)
Impactkommunikation: The Investor’s Guide to Impact – Evidence-based advice for investors who want to change the world von Florian Heeb und Julian Kölbel vom Okober 2021: “… a guide for investors who want to change the world. It supports investors in developing an evidence-based impact strategy for their entire portfolio. … we make three recommendations on how you can maximize your impact as an investor: … enable impactful companies to grow … encourage improvement … Influence the public discourse by being vocal about what you do … Divestment may support broader political or cultural change, but only when it is done publicly” (S. 4/5).
Thematische ESG Defizite: Fund ESG Transparency – Quarterly Report 2021 Q3 Spotlight: Thematic Funds von Rumi Mahmood von MSCI Research vom 29. Oktober 2021: “Thematic funds have experienced …. assets under management quadrupling from under USD 150 bn in 2017 to over USD 600 bn, as of August 2021. …. Over 200 new thematic funds were launched in 2020 … Most thematic fund investments are in the Energy Transition, Broad-based and Multiple Technology themes. … Approximately 7% of thematic funds are estimated to have ESG integration in their active stock selection process or in the underlying index construction …. In general, the degree of theme specificity is positively correlated with trading costs” (S. 4/5). Mein Kommentar: Es geht auch anders, vgl. Nachhaltigster Aktienfonds? – Verantwortungsvolle (ESG) Geldanlage (prof-soehnholz.com)
ESG-Defizite: Traditionelle Geldanlagen
Geringere Klimadividende? Climate Risk and Corporate Payout Policies around the World von Yuyuan Chang, Wen He und Lin Mi vom 27. Oktober 2021 (#19): “Using a large sample of 296,399 firm-year observations for 36,461 firms from 45 countries, we find that firms facing high climate risk make fewer payouts and pay less dividends (both in terms of magnitude and likelihood), but they use more share repurchases (both in terms of magnitude and likelihood). Further tests support the substitution hypothesis that firms with high climate risk substitute repurchases for dividends” (S. 36).
Schlechte Fondsbestseller: Das Elend der Flagschiff-Fonds-Anleger von Gerd Kommer vom 5. November 2021: „In diesem Blog-Beitrag betrachteten wir Rendite und Risiko von sechs der größten aktiv gemanagten Investmentfonds in Deutschland. In keinem der sechs Fälle ist die Rendite-Risikokombination relativ zu einer ETF-Benchmark auf Buy-and-Hold-Basis während der letzten zehn Jahre wirklich vorzeigbar, in einigen Fällen ist sie desaströs schlecht. … Warum sind die sechs hier analysierten Fonds in Deutschland trotz lauwarmer Renditen in der zurückliegenden Dekade oder darüber hinaus dennoch die größten ihrer Gattung? Entweder, weil sie von einer Bankengruppe – lauwarme Rendite hin oder her – in die Depots gutgläubiger Kunden bugsiert werden oder weil diese Fonds in den ersten Jahren nach Gründung starke Outperformance erzeugten, von der sie über die Kennzahl „Rendite seit Auflage“ beim Einsammeln von Kundengeldern danach noch zehn bis 15 Jahre weiter profitierten. Echte Leistung in den letzten Jahren war in keinem der sechs Fälle g ursächlich für die Popularität des Fonds“.
Investmentjobrisikoreduktion: Delegation Chains von Amil Dasgupta und Ernst Maug vom 4. November 2021 (#21): “We study a model in which a principal hires a wealth manager, who may in turn delegate asset allocation decisions to a fund manager. … delegation introduces “another layer of people to blame,” which reduces the sponsor’s reputational risk. … The financial industry features many structures such as funds of funds, independent advisors, special-purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), and similar intermediaries in which multiple layers of financial institutions intermediate the ownership of primary securities by ultimate investors. While such intermediaries may have many legitimate purposes, such as providing liquidity, diversification, and improved corporate governance through concentrating ownership, our theory highlights a potential dark side of such ownership chains” (S. 28).
Viele rechnen falsch: The brave new world of probability and statistics von David H Bailey vom 3. November 2021: “The field of finance …. is rife with the misuse of probability and statistics. Indeed, such errors are now thought to be a leading reason why investment strategies and funds that look great on paper often fall flat when actually fielded. A leading reason for such failures is backtest overfitting … Other areas of finance that are rife with statistical errors include: 1. Technical analysis. …. 2. Day trading. … 3. Market forecasters …”.
ESG-Defizite: Alternative Geldanlagen
Schlechte Leerverkaufstransparenz? Does mandatory short selling disclosure lead to investor herding behavior? von John C. Heater, Ye Liu, Qin Tan und Frank Zhang vom 16. September 2021 (#111): “We investigate whether the clustering of short sales after mandated disclosure of short sale positions is information-based or herding-based. … We find evidence that short sale disclosure clustering is not affected by earnings announcement news shocks. We also find similar short sale disclosure across good and bad news, indicating that investors are not clustering into short sale positions based on negative corporate news, but instead are herding into short positions. …. The mandatory disclosure of short positions will provide ammunition to retail investors aiming for a short squeeze on certain stocks to target specific short sellers, an action that is likely to further stock prices’ deviation from firm fundamentals and to increase return volatility” (S. 20/21).
ICO-Ratingprobleme: ICO Analysts von Andreas Barth, Valerie Laturnus, Sasan Mansouri und Alexander F. Wagner vom 27. Mai 2021 (#207): “One relatively recent phenomenon … is the opportunity for new ventures to engage in Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), a new form of financing. …. we document that an ICO analyst, when rating an ICO, tends to issue a rating that depends on the rating that their own affiliated ICO had previously received from team members of ICO. However, there is a higher probability that an ICO fails, even when it has very favorable ratings, when more of those ratings are reciprocal. Moreover, such disagreement between investors and analysts is also more likely in ICOs with a large share of ratings by analysts with a history of very positive ratings. … failure is frequent even among the most highly rated ICOs” (S. 26/27).
Fintech
Trust in Fintechs? Trust in Finance and Consumer Fintech Adoption von Deniz Okat, Mikael Paaso und Vesa Pursiainen vom 26. Oktober 2021 (#27): “Contrary to anecdotal evidence and some prior research, we document either a positive relationship between trust in banks and fintech adoption (payment systems, cross-sectional study) or no relationship (all other products)” (S. 16).
Riskante AI? Comparing minds and machines: implications for financial stability von Marcus Buckmann, Andy Haldane und Anne‑Caroline Hüser von der Bank of England vom 28. August 2021 (#30): “… we have discussed how partnerships based on the complementary strengths of human and artificial intelligence can reduce financial stability risks for several applications of AI in the financial markets, regulation and policy making. … We have provided ample evidence that AI agents have the ability to take over relevant tasks in the market—often performing better than humans. …. and we have shown many examples, where AI fails to deliver that including unpredictable behaviour when the environment is changing and the fact that some AI applications can easily be gamed and exploited by adversaries. … It is the role of the designer of the AI to ensure that it consistently acts for the good of the people and incorporates the required values into the decision making. … Neither the trustworthiness of the developer nor that of the algorithm are sufficient for an AI system to be trustworthy” (S. 20/21).
Gamification-Regulierung? On “Confetti Regulation”: the Wrong Way to Regulate Gamified Investing von Kyle Langvardt und James Fallows Tierney vom 23. September 2021 (#95): “We have offered a preliminary sketch of the problem of gamification as behavioral churning. …. If those goals include encouraging responsible investing, regulators might even grow to appreciate prosocial or “white hat” gamification—akin to nudges that attempt to intervene in behavior with carefully designed defaults” (S. 13).
Kreditmarktdigitalisierungseffekte: FinTech Lending von Tobias Berg, Andreas Fuster und Manju Puri vom 6. November 2021 (#33): “. we have reviewed the growing literature on FinTech lending – the provision of credit facilitated by technology that improves the customer-lender interaction or lenders’ screening and monitoring of borrowers. …. First, adoption of FinTech lending is plausibly path-dependent. Many borrowers have interacted with FinTech lenders for the first time over the past years, and their experiences are likely to shape the adoption of FinTech lending going forward. …. Second, many FinTech lending models have not been tested in protracted recessions … Third, the growth of FinTech lending has also put FinTech lenders in the spotlight of governments and regulators. … Fourth, payment data is of crucial importance for many bank rating models” (S. 19/20).
Direct-Indexing-Kritik: The Mirage of Direct Indexing A rare free lunch? Von Nicolas Rabener von Factor Research vom 8. November 2021: “Direct indexing is one of the growth areas in the asset management industry. However, direct indexing represents active management, specifically an inferior approach to it. Given the poor track record of active management, most investors should avoid pursuing this”. Mein Kommentar: Direct ESG Indexing: Die beste ESG Investmentmöglichkeit auch für Privatkunden? – Verantwortungsvolle (ESG) Geldanlage (prof-soehnholz.com)