Archiv der Kategorie: Asset Allocation

Brille als Bild für den Beitrag German ESG criticism

German ESG criticism: Researchposting 103

German ESG criticism: 14x new research on climate costs, circular economy, infrastructure, ESG, SDG, ratings, transitions, asset allocation, factor investing, REITs and private equity by Elizabeth Pollman, Bernd Scherer, Michael Grote et al.

Social and ecological research

Huge climate costs: The Global Costs of Extreme Weather That Are Attributable to Climate Change by Rebecca Newman and Ilan Noy as of Nov. 3rd, 2022 (#13): “Extreme Event Attribution (EEA), a methodology that examines the degree to which anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions had changed the occurrence of specific extreme weather events … We find that US$ 143 billion per year, of the costs of extreme events during the last twenty years, is attributable to anthropogenic climatic change. … other approaches use macroeconomic modelling embedded within climate models in various types of Integrated Assessment Models (IAM). … evidence that suggests that most IAMs are substantially under-estimating the current economic costs of climate change“ (abstract).

Circular Economy segmentation: Startups and Circular Economy Strategies: Profile Differences, Barriers and Enablers by Wim Van Opstal and Lize Borms as of October 18th, 2022 (#27): “In this paper we presented results from the first survey on circular startups that allows for multivariate statistical analyses … business-to-business and business-to-government markets can be considered as frontrunner markets for circular business models and supporting services for the circular economy. Circular startups mostly consider sustainability and circularity as a comparative advantage, while activities like maintenance and repair, and sharing production means are less often explicitly considered as circular economy activities. … Barriers and enablers vary significantly depending on the circular strategies that are applied …“ (p. 17).

Advert for German investors: “Sponsor” my free research e.g. by buying my Article 9 fund. The minimum investment is around EUR 50. FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals R – DE000A2P37T6 – A2P37T: I focus on social SDGs and midcaps and use best-in-universe as well as separate E, S and G minimum ratings (compare ESG plus SDG-Alignment mit guter Performance: FutureVest ESG SDG – Responsible Investment Research Blog (prof-soehnholz.com))

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Research: Foto von mir als Bild für den Beitrag

100 research blogposts since 2018

The beginning, stats and topics

„100 research blogposts“: I have been interested in scientific research for a very long time. Also, I have always enjoyed writing and published my first scientific articles while I was still a student. Since 2014 I have my own blog. I present links to and summaries of other people’s scientific contributions there since July 2018. Since mid-2019, I have been publishing 10 to 20 summaries of scientific studies every two weeks or so. On October 19, 2022, I created my one hundredth such research blogposts.

For this, I summarize research that I consider interesting and good. Initially, I focused only on research related to sustainable investing. Over time, other topics were added, specifically environmental, social, and corporate governance topics not directly related to investing, research on general investing topics such as asset allocation, fund selection, security selection, and risk management, and papers focusing on stocks, bonds, and especially alternative investments such as real estate, private equity, and hedge funds. In addition, cover financial technology (fintech) topics on advisortech, advicetech, wealthtech, and specifically model portfolios, robo-advisors, and direct indexing.

Research blogposts: Many sources and certain requirements

I mainly include scientific research articles which are free to access. My main source are the newsletters of publications of the Social Sciences Research Network. Currently, I subscribe to over 80 newsletters in the areas of Economics, Energy, Entrepreneurship, Financial Planning, Governance, Investments, Law, Management, Philosophy, Sociology, and Sustainability. From time to time I also actively search within SSRN for new contributions, especially those with the focus on ESG and Impact.

I also analyze contributions with interesting statistics from NGOs like Planet Tracker and for-profit organizations like Morningstar and MSCI and from my network (see e.g. my third-party links at www.prof-soehnholz.com). In addition, I point out innovative or surprising corporate activities, especially from the USA and Great Britain, which can serve as a model for German-speaking countries. I usually do not take into account unscientific surveys and purely conceptual or opinion contributions.

Early publication, but not necessarily peer-reviewed

Often, I am one of the first to download such contributions in their entirety. After briefly analyzing them, I include the contributions in my blogposts as soon as possible after they have been made available online. Also, I indicate the number of SSRN downloads at the time my blog post is published. This allows my readers to gauge how well-known or popular the research posts I include currently are.

At that point, the articles are often already scheduled for publication in scientific journals, but have not yet been reviewed by other scientists (i.e., without peer review). When downloading the full articles, SSRN explicitly points out this limitation. I myself cannot check the publications in detail for their quality, but I try to heed warning signals and to weed out bad contributions in advance, of which there are unfortunately more and more (cf. e.g. The Corrupt Institutions of Development Economics and Its Shadow Professoriate by Bryane Michael, September 10, 2022).

Anti-Quant research blogposts? Excursus on evidence

Left unconsidered are contributions that suggest they can generate future outperformance (alpha). This is due to the fact that many such studies are, in my opinion, based on so-called data mining and/or inappropriate or very sensitive models (this is what I call pseudo-optimizations, see e.g. Kann institutionelles Investment Consulting digitalisiert werden? Beispiele. – Responsible Investment Research Blog (prof-soehnholz.com)).

Similarly, I usually do not consider studies that attribute only positive diversification properties to any investments. The reason: If additional investments are different from already existing investments, one can, by definition, expect positive diversification properties.

Thus, I distance myself from so-called quantitative investors (quants) or a narrowly understood „quant“ evidence-based investments term. Thus, I do not define evidence-based investing to mean everything that can be shown with data as some others do, especially supporters of so-called factor investments. By evidence-based investments I understand that one should know the scientific results known at the time of investment and implement them if possible. I especially this definition: „Evidence-Based Investing (EBI) is a disciplined approach to asset management that combines the data we have from the past and present with honesty about the unknowable future. Where others would use forecasts, relationships or emotions to guide their decisions, practitioners of EBI would substitute facts, logic and reason“ (see 2016 Evidence Based Investing Conference by IMN; see also Evidence-Based Investing – Interesting for all Passive and Robo-Advisor Fans).

My biases and how I use evidence myself

I also have conscious and perhaps unconscious biases in that I primarily include research that could be relevant to financial investors and people interested in sustainability from Germany, Austria and Switzerland. My approach is selective and means that I certainly can not include all good contributions on the topics I mentioned above in my blog. Moreover, I do not present the complete abstracts or summaries of the respective contributions, but only the most important results from my point of view.

I have now been involved with sustainable investing for quite some time. After co-developing a Sustainable Private Equity fund of funds in 2007, I introduced ESG selection criteria for several equity funds starting in 2012. I pioneered ESG ETF portfolios (2015), pure ESG portfolios (2016) and SDG ETF portfolios (2019) and I am one of the first to advocate Direct ESG Indexing in Europe. Already in 2017, half of the portfolios I offered publicly were sustainable. Since then, new portfolios have been developed almost exclusively using ESG criteria and, more recently, SDG (Sustainable Development Goals) criteria. To do this, I take into account the findings from the studies I analyze as much as possible.

I also use the research findings to advise interested parties and clients. In „Das Soehnholz ESG und SDG Portfoliobuch„, my current investment principles and rules are documented in detail and in an „archive“ the corresponding documentation of previous years is also publicly available. I also use the research findings for my other publications, including my now nearly 200 other (“opinion”) blog posts.

Free for all research blogposts, including competitors

I want to advance evidence-based investing in general, and I don’t necessarily expect everyone interested in it to invest in my portfolios. That’s why I want to make the research as widely known as possible. This works best if I give it away for free. I am especially happy about supporters who further publicize my research. This can be done, for example, through social media referrals. I also like to collaborate with other companies. For example, Exxec News provides part of my research to its users for free.

The relatively extensive time I invest in reading and preparing the research I mentally chalk up to „pro-bono“ or marketing costs. Obviously, whoever would like to support my research activities is welcome to invest – starting at about 50 Euro – in my investment fund (see www.futurevest.fund) and/or recommend this fund or my other (model portfolio) services.

Additional information

My investment philosophy and portfolios: The Soehnholz ESG and SDG portfolio book

Blog posts by topic: Passive, responsible and online investing

Research blog posts: The Soehnholz ESG and Impact Research Book

Numerous other publications/presentations/videos at www.prof-soehnholz.com

This text has been translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Hängendes Faultier als Bild für negative Performance zum Titel Konzentration und SDG

Konzentration und SDG-Fokus gut: Meine 9 Monats Performance 2022

Konzentration und SDG: In den ersten 9 Monaten 2022 haben meine Portfolios zwar absolut schlecht, aber in vielen Fällen relativ gut performt.

ETF-Portfolios: Nachhaltige ETFs oft ähnlich wie aktive traditionelle Fonds

Das nicht-nachhaltige regelbasierte Weltmarkt ETF-Portfolio hat in den ersten 9 Monaten 2022 -14,2% verloren. Das ist leicht besser als aktive Mischfonds, die etwa -14,7% verloren haben. 2021 war der Vorsprung mit +17,9% gegenüber +9,5% noch erheblich höher. Das ebenfalls nicht-nachhaltige Alternatives ETF-Portfolio hat mit -12,6% (+35,8% in 2021) etwas besser als traditionelle Aktienindizes (-13,2% für einen globalen Aktienindex-ETF) abgeschnitten.

Das relativ breit gestreute ESG ETF-Portfolio schneidet in den ersten 9 Monaten 2022 mit -14,3% sehr ähnlich wie das traditionelle Weltmarktportfolio und wie aktive Mischfonds ab. In 2021 war es mit +12,2% aber nennenswert besser als aktive Mischfonds.

Das ESG ETF-Portfolio ex Bonds hat in den ersten 9 Monaten 2022 -19,4% verloren. Traditionelle Aktien-ETFs lagen mit -13,2% erheblich besser (2021 +21,4% und +25,4%). Traditionelle aktive Aktienfondsmanager waren mit -17,4% ebenfalls etwas besser (2021 +23,2%). Das ESG ETF-Portfolio ex Bonds Income rentierten mit -18,5% (2021: +23%) erheblich schlechter als aktive traditionelle Dividendenfonds mit -7,9% (+26,3%). Dagegen hat sich das ESG ETF-Portfolio ex Bonds Trend mit -3,5% (2021: 16%) wiederum viel besser als aktive Mischfonds gehalten (-14,7% und +9,5% in 2021).

Das ESG ETF-Portfolio Bonds (EUR) hat in den ersten neun Monaten 2022 mit -13,2% etwas besser abgeschnitten als traditionelle Anleihe-ETFs (-14,3%), nachdem die Performance in 2021 mit -2,8% vergleichbar war.

Das aus thematischen Aktien-ETFs bestehende SDG ETF-Portfolio hat in den ersten 9 Monaten mit -14,2% (2021: +11,9%) etwas schlechter als traditionelle Aktienindizes (-13,2%) abgeschnitten. Das SDG ETF-Trendfolgeportfolio hat mit -4,6% (2021: +7,5%) dagegen viel besser performt als aktive Mischfonds.

Pure ESG und SDG Aktienportfolios: Konzentration und SDG sind relativ gut

In den ersten 9 Monaten 2022 hat das aus 30 Aktien bestehende Global Equities ESG Portfolio mit -17% (2021: +19,8%) nennenswert schlechter abgeschnitten als traditionelle Aktien-ETFs (-13,5%) aber besser als das erheblich stärker diversifizierte ESG ETF-Portfolio ex Bonds (-19,4%). Gegenüber aktiv gemanagten traditionellen Fonds (-17,4% nach +23,2% im Vorjahr) ist die Rendite aber etwas besser. Das aus nur aus 5 Titeln bestehende Global Equities ESG Portfolio hat mit -17,4% etwas vergleichbar abgeschnitten. Aber mit den +32,1% aus 2021 liegt es weiter hervorragend im Performancevergleich.

Das Infrastructure ESG Portfolio hat -12,5% verloren (2021: +6,3%) und liegt damit weiter stark hinter traditionellen Infrastrukturportfolios (-3,5% für aktive Fonds und +1% für ETFs) zurück. Das liegt vor allem daran, dass Infrastruktur für und Energieerzeugung mit fossilen Energieträgern ausgeschlossen sind.

Der Real Estate ESG Portfolio hat in den ersten 9 Monaten 2022 -30,4% (+22,9% in 2021) verloren. Das ist ähnlich wie traditionelle passive Immobilienaktienportfolios (-30%).

Das Deutsche Aktien ESG Portfolio hat in den ersten neun Monaten 2022 -33,8% (+21% in 2021) verloren. Das ist schlechter als vergleichbare traditionelle passive Benchmarks (-30,8%) bzw. aktive Fonds (-28,9%). Zusammen mit dem Vorjahr liegt mein nachhaltiges Portfolio im Renditevergleich aber auf einem ähnlichen Niveau.

Das auf soziale Midcaps fokussierte Global Equities ESG SDG hat -13,1% erzielt (+22% in 2021), also erheblich besser als andere globale Aktienportfolios. Das Global Equities ESG SDG Trend Portfolio konnte mit -7,6% (+14,5% in 2021) wesentlich besser abschneiden als traditionelle Mischfonds, nachdem es auch im Vorjahr schon vorne lag. Das Global Equities ESG SDG Social Portfolio wurde erst am 21. Januar gestartet und wird deshalb in diesem Vergleich noch nicht berücksichtigt, die ersten Monate sind jedoch relativ betrachtet sehr gut gelaufen.

Mein FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals R Fonds, der am 16. August 2021 gestartet ist, hat in den ersten 9 Monaten 2022 -13% verloren und liegt damit ebenfalls im Wettbewerbsvergleich gut, vor allem im Vergleich zu anderen aktiv gemanagten Aktienfonds. Das gilt auch für die Volatilität von 14% und den maximalen zwischenzeitlichen Verlust von 13,8% (vgl. auch Mein Artikel 9 Fonds: Noch nachhaltigere Regeln – Responsible Investment Research Blog (prof-soehnholz.com)),

Fazit

Vereinfacht zusammengefasst haben meine konzentrierten direkten Aktienportfolios (vgl. 30 stocks, if responsible, are all I need – Responsible Investment Research Blog (prof-soehnholz.com) besser als vergleichbare ETF-Portfolios rentiert. Und nachhaltige Portfolios haben zwar schlechter als traditionelle ETF-Portfolios, aber vergleichbar mit aktiv gemanagten traditionellen Fonds performt. Im Einzelnen rentierten das Infrastruktur- und das Deutsche Aktienportfolio relativ schlecht. Relativ gut waren dagegen die Trendfolge und die SDG Portfolios sowie mein FutureVest Fonds.

Anmerkungen:

Die Performancedetails siehe www.soehnholzesg.com und zu allen Regeln und Portfolios siehe Das Soehnholz ESG und SDG Portfoliobuch. Benchmarkquelle: Medianfonds relevanter Morningstar-Peergruppen (Eigene Berechnungen).

ESG regulation: Das Bild von Thomas Hartmann zeigt Blumen in Celle

ESG overall (Researchblog #91)

ESG overall: >15x new research on fixed income ESG, greenium, insurer ESG investing, sin stocks, ESG ratings, impact investments, real estate ESG, equity lending, ESG derivatives, virtual fashion, bio revolution, behavioral ESG investing

Advert: Check my article 9 SFDR fund FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals (-2,9% YTD). With my most responsible stock selection approach I focus on social SDGs and midcaps and use best-in-universe as well as separate E, S and G minimum ratings.

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Bild zum Beitrag ESG skeptical zeigt eine Ansicht einer Allee aus dem Celler Französischen Garten

ESG skeptical research (Researchblog #90)

ESG skeptical: >15x new and skeptical research on ESG and SDG investments, performance, cost of capital, reporting, ratings, impact, bonifications and artificial intelligence

Advert: Check my article 9 SFDR fund FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals. With my most responsible selection approach I focus on social SDGs and midcaps and use best-in-universe as well as separate E, S and G minimum ratings.

Continue on page 2 (# indicates the number of SSRN downloads on July 5th):

Heidebild als Illustration für Proven Impact Investing

ESG ok, SDG gut: Performance 1. HJ 2022

ESG ok, SDG gut: Im ersten Halbjahr 2022 haben meine Trendfolgeportfolios sowie die Portfolios, die sich an den nachhaltigen Entwicklungszielen der Vereinten Nationen ausrichten (SDG), zwar auch an Wert verloren, aber dafür relativ gut gegenüber Vergleichsgruppen performt. Das gilt besonders auch für den FutureVest Equities SDG Fonds. Anders als die meist OK gelaufenen globalen haben spezialisierte ESG Portfolios der Soehnholz ESG GmbH im ersten Halbjahr schlechter als traditionelle Vergleichsportfolios abgeschnitten. Dafür war deren Performance in der Vergangenheit oft überdurchschnittlich.

Werbemitteilung: Kennen Sie meinen Artikel 9 Fonds FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals: Fokus auf soziale SDGs und Midcaps, Best-in-Universe Ansatz, getrennte E, S und G Mindestratings.

Auf Seite 2 folgt die Übersicht der Halbjahresrenditen für die 15 nachhaltigen und zwei traditionellen Portfolios von Soehnholz ESG sowie für meinen Fonds.

Pictures shows Fire Icon by Elionas

ESG and impact investments under fire (Researchpost #89)

Under fire includes >10x new research on ESG and factors, performance, commitment, regulation, scope 3 GHG, market potential, indices, reporting, engagement, and impact washing

Advert: Check my article 9 SFDR fund FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals. With my most responsible selection approach I focus on social SDGs and midcaps and use best-in-universe as well as separate E, S and G minimum ratings.

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Nachhaltigkeitsfragen als Screenshot einer Präsentationsfolie

Deadline August: Müssen dann andere Fonds angeboten werden?

Deadline August: Ab August müssen AnlegerInnen aufgrund regulatorischer Vorgaben (MiFID II, IDD) nach ihren Nachhaltigkeitspräferenzen befragt werden. Auch künftig ist zunächst weiterhin die sogenannte Geeignetheit zu prüfen, speziell Renditeerwartungen, Risikokriterien, Zeithorizont und individuelle Umstände von InteressentInnen. Vereinfacht zusammengefasst muss künftig im Anschluss daran gefragt werden, inwieweit eines oder mehrere dreier Nachhaltigkeitsprodukttypen in Anlagen einbezogen werden sollen: Erstens ein Produkt mit einem ein Mindestanteil an ökologisch nachhaltigen Investitionen oder, zweitens, einem Mindestanteil an sozial nachhaltigen Investitionen oder drittens mit einer Mindest-ESG-Gesamtbeurteilung.

Werbemitteilung: Kennen Sie meinen Artikel 9 Fonds FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals R – DE000A2P37T6 – A2P37T mit Fokus auf soziale SDGs und Midcaps, Best-in-Universe Ansatz, getrennte E, S und G Mindestratings?

Auf Seite 2 geht es weiter:

Picture by SugarHima shows wooden fake wind generator to illustrate benchmarking problems

Benchmarking problems (Researchpost #88)

Benchmarking problems: Almost 20x new research on tax avoidance, net-zero illusions, brown and unsocial banks and mutual funds, negative ESG bonus, plastics, real estate, panic, monetary policy, missing data, wrong benchmarks, institutional herding, and fintechs

Advert: Check my article 9 SFDR fund FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals. With my most responsible selection approach I focus on social SDGs and midcaps and use best-in-universe as well as separate E, S and G minimum ratings.

Continue on page 2 (# indicates the number of SSRN downloads on June 14th):

Bild zeigt religösen Palast mit zahlreichen Heiligenfiguren als Illustration für factor problems

Factor problems: Researchpost #87

Factor problems includes >20 new studies on plastic, water, children, rich people, the web, ESG indices, ESG reporting, greenwashing, ESG cost, SDG, UN PRI, mutual funds, factor investing, skew, forecasts, institutional investors, infrastructure, fintech, PFOF

Advert: Check my article 9 SFDR fund FutureVest Equity Sustainable Development Goals. With my most responsible selection approach I focus on social SDGs and midcaps and use best-in-universe as well as separate E, S and G minimum ratings.

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