Braune Diversifikation

Braune Diversifikationsrisiken und mehr neue Researchbeiträge

Soziales Umfeld

Sehr viele Kinderehen: Towards Ending Child Marriage Global trends and profiles of progress von UNICEF vom 13. Okober 2021: “Over the past decade, the proportion of young women who were married as children decreased by 15 per cent, from 1 in 4 to about 1 in 5. However … no region is yet on track to meet the SDG target of eliminating this harmful practice by 2030. … the rate of progress would need to be 15 times faster than the pace recorded over the last decade. What’s more, over the next 10 years, up to 10 million more girls will be at risk of child marriage as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic” (S. 68).

Globalisierungsfriktionen: The Backlash of Globalization von Italo Colantone, Gianmarco Ottaviano und Piero Stanig vom 21. September 2021 (#80): “We have documented the backlash using newly assembled data covering 23 advanced democracies, over 1980-2019. The protectionist and isolationist shift in politics is detectable from the mid-1990s onwards, with the only exceptions of Australia and New Zealand. Until the financial crisis, the backlash is mostly driven by rising support for anti-globalization parties on the right of the political spectrum. From the crisis onwards, there is also a surge in support for protectionist parties of the left, especially in Europe. The backlash in voting is associated with a noticeable protectionist shift in trade policy –although with some notable nuances– especially since the financial crisis” (S. 73).

Mehr Populismus durch Finanzkrise: The Financial Drivers of Populism in Europe von Luigi Guiso, Massimo Morelli, Tommaso Sonno and Helios Herrera vom 14. September 2021 (#36): “This paper argues that the financial crisis was a watershed in the burst of populism both on the demand side (voters behaviour) and on the supply side (political parties behaviour). … Economic insecurity peaks during the financial crisis and extends to segments of the population untouched by the globalization and robotization shocks. … On the supply side, we trace from manifestos the policy positions of old and new parties showing that the supply of populism had the largest jump right after the financial crisis. The size of the jump is largest in countries with low fiscal space and for parties on the left of the political spectrum” (abstract).

Rechte Einflüsse: Populists in Power von Luisa Doerr, Niklas Potrafke und Felix Roesel vom 13. Oktober 2021 (#15): “The sample includes Austrian municipalities, many were led by far-right populist mayors. Our results show that far-right populist mayors increased political polarization and polarization within civil society. This result is corroborated by decreased net foreign migration under far-right populist rule. By contrast, the results do not suggest that far-right populists influenced main economic outcomes such as the unemployment rate in a different manner than mayors from other parties. Budget transparency decreased, however, under FPÖ mayors … we show evidence suggesting that far-right populists divide the civil society. … when FPÖ mayors are elected into office, their extreme views gain social acceptance” (S. 21/22).

Umweltaspekte

Klima gegen Demokratie? The Climate Crisis & Democracy – From Democratic Debilitation to Innovation von Joo-Cheong Tham vom 8. Oktober 2021 (#5): “The climate crisis is also a crisis for democracy. Democracies worldwide are failing to prevent dangerous climate change, as underlined by the latest report from the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). … There are four circumstances of democratic debilitation impeding democracies in effectively addressing climate change: a. Short-termism; b. Self-referring mechanisms (including elections); c. Weak multilateralism; and d. Capture by vested interests, particularly fossil-fuel interests” (S. 2).

Bundesgericht pro Klima? Of Carbon Budgets, Factual Uncertainties and Intergenerational Equity– The German Constitutional Court’s Climate Decision von Andreas Buser vom 16. Oktober 2021 (#14): “The climate decision provides a nuanced acknowledgment of the constitutional relevance of climate change. The Court’s take on constitutional limits to climate policy features many progressive findings. The most important one is the obligation to equitably distribute allowable emissions over time and generations. Yet, in this article, I demonstrated that the court’s inability to narrow down the available national budget impeded meaningful judicial control of Germany’s climate policy. … This could pave the way for future complaints if the German State proves unable to follow its reduction path” (S. 12).

Karbonsteuerdesigns: Why are carbon taxes unfair? Disentangling public perceptions of fairness von Marina Povitkina, Sverker C. Jagers, Simon Matti und Johan Martinsson vom 25. Februar 2021 (#31): “We conclude that statements of policy fairness are much more varied than it is usually accounted for. … For example, to address people’s concerns regarding gas prices already being too high, policy design can include both tax and a parallel subsidy for green fuels or alternative vehicles. To address people’s lack of trust in government, there should probably be a special emphasis on the increase in transparency in how the government handles the tax … Finally, to appease the groups who find the tax unfair due to the uneven income effects, the tax can be matched with a compensation scheme …” (S. 19/20).

Fleischmotive: Meaty arguments and fishy effects: Field experimental evidence on the impact of reasons to reduce meat consumption von Grischa Perino und Claudia Schwirplies vom 11. Oktober 2021 (#7): “We report evidence from a field experiment (N = 561) on how different reasons for reducing the consumption of red meat (health, climate and animal welfare) impact intentions to change behavior, actual consumption of red meat and the enjoyment of meals. Surprisingly, the three concepts are not aligned. On average, two treatments affect intentions to reduce meat consumption, only one affects behavior, while all affect enjoyment of the meal with red meat. This contributes to the emerging discussion of the welfare effects of nudging. We find that behavioral changes are driven by our female participants (in two treatments) and discuss the role of the social environment to shed light on the mechanisms behind this gender difference” (abstract).

Braune Diversifikationsrisiken: Die Unternehmensperspektive

Sehr viel CO2 börsennotierer Unternehmen: Listed Company Emissions, Insights 06 von Generation Investment Management LLP vom 11. Oktober 2021: “Listed companies … are responsible for around 40% of all climate-warming emissions. This is the first estimate of the overall extent of listed company greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Our calculation takes into account Scope 1, 2 and some types of Scope 3 emissions, while addressing double-counting. … If anything, we expect further analysis to reveal that listed companies are responsible for an even greater share”.

Compliancerelevantes Klima: Climate Change Compliance von Susan S. Kuo und Benjamin Means vom 1. September 2021 (#29): “Unless corporations prioritize climate change mitigation, efforts to control global warming will fail. Yet, the strategies that have been proposed for enlisting corporations are insufficient to the task. In our era of political polarization, a comprehensive “Green New Deal” to transition the U.S. economy away from fossil fuels is a nonstarter. Nor can we expect corporate risk management or social responsibility to fill the gap; there are practical limits to how far corporate managers can depart from strategies designed to maximize profits for investors. This Article contends that climate change is a compliance issue. … A compliance-based approach best captures the rationale for holding corporations responsible for climate change and provides a robust framework for achieving results” (abstract).

Cyberdestruction: Cybersecurity and Brand Value von Po-Hsuan Hsu, Wei-Chuan Kao und Yanzhi Wang vom 21. August 2021 (#64): “A difference-in-differences analysis indicates that firms suffering cybersecurity breaches are associated with more canceled trademarks, fewer trademark registrations, and fewer trademark citations. We also show that cybersecurity breaches are associated with more negative news sentiments and poorer operating performance. Further analyses suggest that brand value is hurt more by cybersecurity breaches when firms have more internet advertising activities, when firms are subject to managerial inertia, or when firms have poorer internal controls” (abstract).

Nachhaltige Investments – Buchkritik

Nordeuropäische Fallstudien:Sustainable Investing – Beating the Market” with ESG von Hanna Silvola und Tiina Landau, 2021 herausgegeben von Palgrave Macmillan (kostenpflichtig): Das Buch liefert etliche interessante Fallbeispiele zum Thema nachhaltige Investments vor allem von finnischen Institutionen. Schon deshalb lohnt sich meines Erachtens der Kauf dieses Buches. Hinzu kommen viele praxisrelevante Hinweise zu Datenquellen, Tools etc.. Negative Kritik: Nachhaltiges Investieren wird vor allem als ESG-Investing thematisiert und dabei der Fokus auf den Klimaaspekte gelegt. Die Stichworte Biodiversität und soziale Faktoren sowie die wichtige Diskussion zu Impact- und SDG-Investments kommen meines Erachtens aber zu kurz. Anders als im Titel suggeriert wird erwarte ich nicht, dass man mit Hilfe des Buches Outperformance erreichen kann. Zudem schient mir die theoretische Basis des Buches an vielen Stellen unvollständig zu sein. So fehlen wichtige Quellen wie z.B. ESG and Financial Performance: Uncovering the Relationship by Aggregating Evidence from 1,000 Plus Studies Published between 2015 – 2020 von Tensie Whelan, Ulrich Atz, Tracy Van Holt und Casey Clark vom NYU Stern Center for Sustainable Business und Rockefeller Asset Management vom Februar 2021 (aber auch viele andere relevante aktuelle Quellen vgl. Researchbeiträge auf www.prof-soehnholz.com). Ich vermisse außerdem tiefergehende und kritische Analysen. Zu Voting und Engagement werden zwar viele Erfolgsbeispiele genannt, aber nur wenige Statistiken (vgl. Söhnholz, D. (2020): „Divestments bewirken mehr als Stimmrechtsausübungen oder Engagement“ in „Nachhaltige Finanzen – Durch aktives Aktionärstum und Engagement Wandel bewirken“ von CRIC (Corporate Responsibility Interface Center), Springer Gabler Dezember). Außerdem habe ich keine Erwähnungen bzw. Diskussionen von wichtigen Nachhaltigkeitsthemen wie Best-in-Universe, segregierten und machine-learning basierten Ratings, Momentum- bzw. Progressansätzen oder Direct ESG indexing gefunden.

Braune Diversifikationsrisiken: ESG Investments

Relativ wenige CO2 Reduzierer: Constructing Net-Zero Portfolios: Three Approaches von Guido Giese, Zoltan Nagy und Chris Cote von MSCI vom 30. September 2021: “From 2016 through 2020, we found that less than a quarter of MSCI ACWI Investable Markets Index (IMI) constituents decarbonized by at least 10% per year, making it virtually impossible to build broad global equity portfolios of such companies during this period”.

Zögerliche Banken: Do banks fuel climate change? von Alessio Reghezza, Yener Altunbas, David Marques-Ibanez, Costanza Rodriguez d’Acri und Martina Spaggiari von der EZB vom 19. Mai 2021 (#86):“We offer robust evidence that European banks’ loan share to more polluting firms decreased by about 3 percentage points, in relation to less polluting firms, after the announcement of the Paris Agreement. We complement this result with evidence that European banks’ loan share to US more polluting corporations decreased by 2.38 percentage points after President Trump’s decision not to uphold the Paris climate commitment. We contend that recent climate change initiatives, improved awareness of climate change-related risks, and the anticipation of more stringent policies, are pushing banks out of climate-sensitive sectors and towards greener business. We also show that banks with lower credit quality, low profits and high capital levels are the drivers behind our main results, as they are reacting earlier and more strongly to climate policy actions” (S. 18/19).

CSR Transparenz: How does corporate social responsibility engagement affect the information content of stock prices? Von Ramzi Benkraiem, Sabri Boubaker und Asuif Saeed vom 24. September 2021 (#32): „Using a sample of 877 U.S.-listed firms, we provide evidence that a firm’s CSR performance has a negative effect on stock price synchronicity, suggesting that socially responsible firms commit themselves to high transparency standards, leading to more informative stock prices. Moreover, the negative relationship between sustainable corporate policies and stock price synchronicity is more pronounced in better-governed, highly competitive, and closely monitored firms” (abstract).

Kursrelevante Transitionsrisiken: Real-Time Transition Risk von Matthias Apel, André Betzer und Bernd Scherer vom 27. August 2021 (#337): “We develop a point-in-time index to approximate changes in transition risk from climate-related news events. We overcome the assumption that “no news is good news on climate” inherent in previous research as we specifically consider news to signal an increase or a decrease in the external pressure towards a shift to a lower-carbon economy. We evaluate the return sensitivity of publicly available green minus brown (GMB) portfolio proxies that apply different approaches to measure a firms’ environmental performance based on investors’ climate objectives. We find that short-term transition risk tends to affect stock prices based on firms’ business activity but not emissions” (abstract)

ESG-Outperformance: What Does ESG Investing Really Mean? Implications for Investors of Separating Financial Materiality and Social Objectives Linda-Eling Lee von MSCI vom 5. Oktober 2021 (#52): “Even with imperfect data and evolving measurements, the available evidence, spanning over a decade, has supported the investment thesis. That is, industry-specific, financially relevant ESG information collected on a dynamic basis has improved returns by reducing risk and improving profitability. For investors implementing an ESG approach, emerging lessons on portfolio construction include the need to identify both intended and unintended outcomes in ESG and traditional financial factor exposures. Innovations in analytical tools have allowed more targeted applications and measurement of ESG characteristics alongside financial characteristics, improving transparency for investment managers and fund allocators” (S. 19/20). Mein Kommentar: Es geht auch einfcher, vgl. Soehnholz ESG YTD Performance: Passive Asset-Allokation funktioniert sehr gut – Verantwortungsvolle (ESG) Geldanlage (prof-soehnholz.com)

ESG-Renditepuzzle Erklärung: The Impact of ESG Scores on Asset Prices von Larry Swedroe vom 14. Oktober 2021 über “Expected and Realized Returns on Stocks with High‑ and Low‑ESG Exposure” von Olaf Stotz vom März 2021, der seine Studie (Paywall) wie folgt zusammenfasst: “The empirical results are compatible with the view that some investors have non-financial preferences linked to ESG. This view implies that expected future returns on the HL portfolio will be considerably lower than realized past returns if the demand for ESG stocks does not increase further”.

ESG schadet nicht: Responsible Investing: ESG Ratings and the Cross-Section of International Stock Returns von Nusret Cakici und Adam Zaremba vom 11. Oktober 2021 (#49): “… we perform a comprehensive global examination of return predictability by ESG rating in 49 equity markets around the world. … Globally, an equal-weighted decile spread portfolio that is formed on composite ESGC ratings by Refinitiv yields -0.39% per month. … Its magnitude varies across time, countries, and ESG dimensions. … The highly profitable low ESG firms are typically smaller. … once we isolate the role of the small firm premium, abnormal performance cannot be detected. In a nutshell, the ESG phenomenon does not appear to be an anomaly – per se – but is largely the firm size effect in disguise” (S. 18).

Braune Diversifikationsrisiken? Fund portfolio networks: a climate risk perspective von Adrien Amzallag von der European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) vom 11. Oktober 2021 (#14): “… using a new dataset available to ESMA containing detailed (ISIN-level) portfolio holdings for 23 352 funds. … the analysis suggests that EU investment funds whose portfolios are tilted towards more polluting assets (brown funds) distribute their portfolio across a larger number of companies than funds with cleaner portfolios (green funds). Brown funds are also more connected with each other (have more similar portfolios … These two findings suggest that climate-related financial shocks are likely to disproportionately affect brown funds. A subsequent forward-looking climate risk scenario exercise appears to confirm this … most brown funds’ losses range from about 9% to 18% of affected assets, in contrast to green funds’ losses ranging from 3% to 8%”. Mein Kommentar: So kann man konzentriert konsequent nachhaltig investieren vgl. Nachhaltigster Aktienfonds? – Verantwortungsvolle (ESG) Geldanlage (prof-soehnholz.com)

Nachhaltige Aktienleihe: How to lend shares sustainably von Planet Tracker vom 14. Oktober 2021: “Those asset managers which manage sustainable funds on behalf of their clients should sign the Global PSSL (Global Principles for Sustainable Securities Lending) if they undertake securities lending. These principles were submitted for consultation with the financial industry and developed in collaboration with a group of financial firms ranging from pension funds and asset managers to data providers and hedge funds. Surely this is an obvious way for an asset manager to declare their sustainability credentials”.

Braune Diversifikationsrisiken: Traditionelle und alternative Investments

Überlaufene Faktorstrategien? Capacity von Clinton S. Tepper vom 28. September 2021 (#84): “Increases in investor exposure to prominent systematic trading strategies such as momentum correlate with lower returns to these strategies. A 1 percentage point increase in gross momentum exposure as a percentage of market capitalization corresponds with a permanent 1.1 percentage point decline in future annual momentum returns. … Estimating aggregate investment in momentum over time reveals a nearly 10-fold increase in momentum exposure as a percentage of market capitalization from 1980 to 2010. The association of a permanent decline in returns with increases in exposure extends to other strategies, including long-run reversal and idiosyncratic volatility” (abstract).

Alternativeskritik: Alternative Investing: The Fairy Tale And The Future von Richard M. Ennis vom 26. September 2021 (#134): “Freed of the misperception that maintaining several asset-class silos is necessary to achieve efficient diversification, institutional investors can be expected to simplify asset allocation. Implicit in this supposition is the understanding that alternative investments are active strategies (not diversifying assets) and should be addressed and incorporated into the portfolio as such—one at a time, with the understanding that they may well prove to be transitory. As this occurs, we can expect to see fewer, more comprehensive asset classes and, in our estimate, less allocated to alternative investments overall. We can expect to see successful allocators use far fewer managers and incur lower costs”.

Frühphase für Immobilientoken: Studie zur Tokenisierung von Immobilien – Wie die Blockchain-Technologie den Immobilienmarkt revolutioniert von Cyrus de la Rubia, Philipp Sandner und Jonas Groß vom 4. Oktober 2021: „Im Rahmen dieser Studie wurde eine Bestandsaufnahme rund um tokenisierte Immobilien vorgenommen und der Anspruch mit der Wirklichkeit abgeglichen. Anhand der vier Kategorien Technologie, Rendite, Laufzeit und Mindestbeteiligung wurden Anbieter von tokenisierten Immobilien weltweit analysiert und ihre Geschäftsmodelle untersucht. Die Studienautoren kommen zu dem Ergebnis, dass viele Grundvoraussetzungen heute noch nicht erfüllt sind, um das volle Potenzial der Tokenisierung von Immobilien auszuschöpfen. Dazu zählen beispielsweise liquide Sekundärmärkte und digitalisierte Grundbücher. Wichtig sei zudem, dass das aufsichtsrechtliche Regelwerk weiterentwickelt wird, um sowohl bei Emittenten als auch bei Anlegern Unsicherheiten zu reduzieren“.

SPAC-Kritik: Harnessing the Overconfidence of the Crowd: A Theory of SPACs von Snehal Banerjee und Martin Szydlowski vom 5. Oktober 2021 (#83): “The recent popularity of SPACs is puzzling, given the complexity of these transactions and the mixed performance across different investor classes. We provide a model in which SPACs arise as an optimal form of financing. The key insight is that a sponsor may find it optimal to issue units with redeemable shares and rights when there are sufficiently many over-confident investors in the market. This because such investors overestimate their own ability to process payoff relevant information and optimally redeem their shares; as a result, they overvalue the optionality embedded in redeemable shares. … We show that while increases in transparency (decreasing costs of information processing) and restricting access to sophisticated investors tends to improve outcomes for unsophisticated retail investors, mandating disclosure of more information can be counterproductive” (S. 36).

Venturekontrolle: Board Dynamics Over the Startup Life Cycle von Michael Ewens und Nadya Malenkov vom 18. März 2021 (#365): “We study the determinants of board composition at VC-backed startups and its evolution from the first financing round to exit. … using a novel dataset, which covers more than 7,200 startups from 2002 to 2017. We show that independent directors are widespread, even though their presence is not required by regulation. Moreover, they often have substantial voting power … Our key hypothesis is that unlike in public firms, where the main roles of independent directors are monitoring and advising, an important role of independent directors in VC-backed firms is mediation. … We show that the patterns of board composition and board control are broadly consistent with the predictions of the mediation role. The evidence is also consistent with the mediation role being relatively more important in early stages of the life cycle, and the advisory role becoming more important in later stages. We also show that over time, control over boards has shifted from VC control to greater shared and entrepreneur control, consistent with the general trend towards lower VC bargaining power that has been documented in other studies” (S. 34/35).

Wealthtech

Brokerstrategien: Online Wertpapier Brokerage 2021 – Etabliert ausgerechnet das Coronavirus eine Wertpapierkultur in Deutschland? Von Dr. René Fischer Dr. Thomas Hofmann Philipp Bulis von Oliver Wyman vom Oktober 2021: „… erleben wir im deutschen Markt für das Jahr 2020 Rekordzahlen. So haben sich die Anzahl der Wertpapiertransaktionen gegenüber 2019 auf 160 bis 180 Millionen verdoppelt und die Erlöse für die deutschen Online-Broker von €1 Milliarden in 2019 um zwei Drittel auf €1,6 bis €1,7 Milliarden gesteigert. … Während Sparpläne in 2020 noch 15-20% der Transaktionen ausmachten, werden es 2020 schon 50% sein und damit das weitere Marktwachstum fundamental stützen. … Neue Anbieter (FinTechs) vereinen mit Low-Cost-Angeboten und innovativer Bedienung via App innerhalb von zwei Jahren bereits knapp unter 10% Marktanteil auf sich und graben den direkten Zugang zu der zukunftsträchtigen Kundenschicht der jungen Berufstätigen ab. …. Dieser Report gibt ein Update zu der Marktentwicklung in Anzahl Kunden, Kundenstruktur, Aktivität und Erlöse. Im zweiten Teil gehen wir auf die Entwicklung der Anbieter im Markt ein, zeigen die Trends außerhalb von Deutschland auf und stellen mögliche strategische Optionen dar, um in diesem Markt auf Dauer richtig positioniert zu sein“ (S. 2).

McKinsey erwartet Direct Indexing Wachstum: Crossing the horizon: North American asset management in the 2020s von McKinsey & Co. Global Banking Practice vom 6. Oktober 2021: “Customization has been a mainstay of the asset management industry through separately managed accounts, but because of the operational complexity of running these vehicles, they have typically been the preserve of larger institutional investors and the upper end of the high-net-worth segment in retail. Technology is changing that assumption, particularly with the maturing of direct indexing powered by smart rebalancing algorithms and fractional share trading. These enable the delivery of customized portfolios of securities at minimums that are accessible to the Main Street investor. Assets in direct indexing have tripled from 2018 to 2020, representing $215 billion in AUM (or 17 percent of the retail SMA market). We anticipate direct indexing volumes to more than double through 2025, in view of the ability of this new investing technology to meet growing sets of customized client needs— most notably the growing demand for tax-efficient investing, as well as the desire of new retail investor segments to ensure that their personal values are reflected in their portfolio holdings. The recent acquisition of direct indexing providers by several leading North American asset managers will create further supply-side momentum in expanding the growth of the category. Our research suggests that direct index providers have just begun to scratch the surface of accessing client demand. Only 28 percent of financial advisors expressed familiarity with the role that direct indexing can play in a portfolio, yet 51 percent of them indicated a likelihood of increasing the adoption with their clients over the course of 2021” (S. 30/31).  Mein Kommentar vgl. Direct ESG Indexing: Die beste ESG Investmentmöglichkeit auch für Privatkunden? – Verantwortungsvolle (ESG) Geldanlage (prof-soehnholz.com)

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